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But I think it becomes much broader than that. And I think part of it is the news, because, you know, since the Iran war, for example, people are very concerned about the price of oil, and oil quotes used to stop on Friday nights, and now you can see the price of oil in the perpetual markets. Um, and this is crypto-innovation.
So, for me, I think there will be a very, very large amount of money, deployment, and resource support for crypto. And besides, of course, as you know, for example, in early December, the exchanges switch to almost 24-hour trading anyway. So, I think we're moving into a world where the typical investor will see markets trading live all the time and will have access to a variety of market a small morning pullback to $ 83,462, driven by inflation concerns and CME Fed Watch Tool expectations of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in October and December, Bitcoin continues to consolidate near multi-month highs, supported by accelerating institutional momentum and technical developments.
On September 24, major UK financial institutions , Barclays, Lloyds and NatWest, simultaneously executed deposit transactions on a shared blockchain infrastructure, developing 24/7 programmable banking settlements in parallel with Solana testing its new Alpenglow upgrade, which radically reduces transaction finality time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.
Additionally , Tom Lee reaffirmed his $150,000 target for Bitcoin, emphasizing that October marks a key historical endpoint of the cryptocurrency's 4-year correction cycle, as investors who had been on the sidelines return. This thesis is supported by net inflows into ETFs in late September, reaching their highest level since November 2024 , even as European Union financial regulators issue urgent warnings about the threats of quantum computing to legacy blockchain encryption .
Yes, it's been a little over a year since we started our Ethereum treasury strategy, and we considered 5% an important level because it's the amount of ETH that we believe will allow us to positively impact the Ethereum ecosystem, because first, we would essentially be a permanent owner of the crypto, and second , we can contribute to public goods through the staking revenue that this would generate.
And, um, but we also thought it would take 5 years. So, you know, when we look at the 10- year plan, we're only 1.2 years into it, but I think we're pretty close to achieving that 5 percent goal. I think the cryptocurrency bull market that is now beginning has already been confirmed, which is also evident from the growth of crypto stocks, as they are by far the most profitable assets in the third quarter.
I think a much larger group of new investors will come to the crypto market. And I think that's what sets him apart. The 2016-2017 cycles, the Covid cycle that ended in 2021, and last year's mini-cycle all had their catalysts: ICOs, NFTs, meme coins, and most recently, stablecoins. But this was a narrow set of real-world use cases, and it was mostly crypto enthusiasts coming back after losing funds.
I think the losses were not that significant in this bear market. Much of the leverage has been eliminated, but thanks to mass tokenization, favorable regulation, government support, and the development of AI and agent systems around crypto, many more people will join it. And when we look at the price charts, it shows.
There was indeed a long-term consolidation of prices. In some cases, five years of price consolidation. Therefore, I believe that this bull market will not just be a decisive breakthrough, but will significantly surpass past cycles in terms of duration and growth potential. If you are asking about our announcements, I advise you to follow the news, because we have spent the last few months in consultations with the fund, many stakeholders, and crypto companies.
Yes. And also with some regulators, because no matter what we announce, our main goals remain unchanged. First, to positively impact the Ethereum ecosystem, because we are not only committed to it, but also have very optimistic forecasts. We see many future opportunities in the Ethereum roadmap and the ETH token itself, and we are committed to maximizing shareholder value.
The public has entrusted us with its capital. I mean Bitmain shareholders . Our goal is not only to be reliable managers of the capital entrusted to us, but also to ensure a higher return on investment. And so far, we are outperforming Ethereum. Last year, we outperformed Ethereum by about 4,500 basis points from June 30th to the end of the year.
And this year—about 1,300 basis points, in my opinion . So, we are still outperforming the underlying cryptocurrency. And this is our commitment to Bitmain shareholders. Well, I think you're right in noting that Wall Street is now actively embracing technology. They have already accepted stablecoins.
And it's not just Wall Street that's at fault, but the current administration recognizes that stablecoins benefit not only the dollar but also the Treasury bond markets. Many financial companies, of course, see the benefits of the digitalization of the dollar opening up new markets. Now it’s spreading further: financial companies see many opportunities to make money from tokenizing other assets.
This is key, because businesses will only implement blockchain when it delivers a tenfold improvement in operations, revenue, commissions, or service quality. And actually, this is what is now becoming truly tangible and interesting. I think Robinhood has been a leader in this direction, proving that there is demand for tokenized stocks and the use of the Robinhood network.
Mhm. But I believe that the scale of this phenomenon is much larger. This is partly due to the new cycle, because, for example, since the start of the war in Iran, people have been worried about the price of oil. Previously, oil prices usually stopped being quoted on Friday evening. And now you can see the price of oil in the futures markets .
And this is an innovation in the crypto world. Therefore, in my opinion , we are in for a colossal amount of capital, investment, and resources to support the crypto industry. In addition, as you know, at the beginning of December, the stock exchanges actually switch to 24-hour trading. We are entering a world where the average investor will perceive markets as constantly trading, with broad access to a variety of assets.
Amid a 4.5% consolidation that brought Bitcoin back to $83,462 after an 18 % rally in six sessions to $87,397, the cryptocurrency market is overcoming a rally narrowing near multi-month resistance along with broader macroeconomic pressures. This is highlighted by rising Japanese bond yields, which signal a potential further tightening of Bank of Japan policy and a rollback of carry trade operations.
Despite the CME Fed Watch tool estimating a high probability of a consecutive Fed rate hike in October and December, Tom Lee maintains his $150,000 Bitcoin price forecast and optimistic outlook for Q4, identifying October 2026 as the completion of a historic four-year cycle, marking the end of the post-peak correction phase and the return of institutional capital that had been on the sidelines.
Supported by record net inflows into ETFs, which reached their highest level since November 2024, the current market structure benefits from unleveraged institutional support , which reduces the systemic risk of liquidation seen in past cycles. At the same time, important steps are taking place in the real infrastructure, such as the completion of tokenized deposit settlements by Barclays, Lloyds and NatWest.
The focus of EU supervisors on quantum- resistant encryption and Solana’s testing of 150-millisecond finality updates confirm that the current transformation is based on deep structural institutional implementation, not speculative leverage. Well, first of all, I think Robinhood has demonstrated that they made very smart moves right from the start.
And they had a huge impact on changing the financial system. I mean, their initial move with zero commission trading completely changed the world for retail investors. And I think the thing that stands out the most is that Robinhood decided to build on Ethereum. Not because they were getting the best price or were going to fight fees, but because it is the safest and most liquid blockchain.
And I think since the launch of that partnership, there's been no intention in the Ethereum ecosystem to say, "Oh, we need to do rent mining, try to optimize gas fees and maximize costs for the Robinhood network." I think this is a classic cash flow model, where someone argues that the only thing of value in the world is assets that generate cash flows.
And I think that's the wrong view, because, first of all, as you can see, the price of Ethereum has increased significantly since the announcement . And Ethereum doesn't necessarily capture these fees. This only proves that Ethereum's history is likely evolving towards a store of value. So, you know, these ETH tokens will be held because they are useful.
And that's because people realize that they can actually increase in value. I think there are many ways why a bullish trend will begin in the crypto market. You know, I think the listeners should realize one thing: no one really knows which way the markets are going to go. But it is best to have an idea of possible scenarios .
For example, if someone asked, " Tom, two years ago, why would the S&P 500 be going up?" Okay, let's say the end of 2024, I could list a bunch of things . For example: " Hey, it could be AI. It could be the Fed, or it could be bringing manufacturing back to the country." And I didn't give any probabilities to these options or say that you only need to choose one path, and in the end the market grew significantly.
And I think the same goes for Ethereum: what will make not only Ethereum useful, but also the ETH token itself, the ETH coin, valuable. I believe there are several paths, because, firstly, tokenization is a great opportunity not only because of its scale, but also because of the real innovation it can bring.
I think people take tokenization too simply: "Hey, we can trade the S&P 500 and its components 24/7 ." I think this is actually quite useful because it can be an additional collateral. Mhm. But beyond that, because tokenization grants legal rights to a range of collateralized assets, there are many innovations that can be introduced into what S&P shares are.
Derivative financial instruments and structures can be created that do not require a shareholder vote. So I think this opens up huge prospects. But if you look at modern payment systems and what any financial transaction involves and how many intermediaries are involved—for example, a credit card transaction goes through seven separate regulatory stages: from the payment platform to processing, validators, merchant, POS terminal, etc.—all of this could be run on a single blockchain as a smart contract.
This is a huge innovation because it changes the speed, volume of payments, and, of course, reduces costs for users. So, I guess the answer is: I think the financial industry will eventually become an active user of blockchains. Not only because customers want it , but also because it will allow for the creation of new products and make the financial industry safer.
But all three of these things can happen at different speeds or simultaneously, because change doesn't happen overnight. The convergence of important structural milestones, such as the development of DTCC on-chain settlements, the implementation of tokenized bank deposits by major UK financial institutions, and the successful testing of 150- millisecond transaction finality, indicates that the traditional financial infrastructure is rapidly transitioning to blockchain rails, creating an operational base for the inflow of institutional capital in the fourth quarter, as predicted by Tom Lee .
This structural transformation is further highlighted by a clear change in the regime of market behavior. While the S&P 500 suffers from a market squeeze caused by a small group of AI giants, Bitcoin’s recent multi-month highs have been accompanied by broad crypto market participation, confirming its decoupling from stock return expectations and convergence with gold as a hedge against currency depreciation.
Despite short-term noise , including a 4.5% price consolidation to $83,462, a growing likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, multi-year highs in Japanese bond yields, and warnings from EU regulators about the threats of quantum computing to legacy addresses, underlying institutional demand remains extremely strong, as evidenced by net inflows into the ETF, which reached the highest level since November 2024 .
Ultimately, as the completion of the historic four-year crypto cycle falls on October 2026, marking the end of the post-peak correction phase , Tom Lee maintains a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin , arguing that macroeconomic volatility and rate concerns are secondary noise compared to the unprecedented, irreversible alignment of institutional infrastructure and global liquidity.
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