저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 금리인하(50bp) 이후 연준의 완화 기조가 12~18개월 지속되며 AI·기술주에 위험선호 랠리가 이어진다고 주장. AI 관련 자본지출 약 1조달러, 공급 대비 수요 15:1, 기술섹터 1년 내 25~30% 상승 전망, 엔비디아 시총 4조달러 가능성 제시. 아이폰16 선주문은 기대 부합, AMD는 간접 수혜 전망. 호스트는 QQQ 저항선 돌파 여부를 기술적으로 점검하며 조정 후 매수를 고려 중.
다듬은 글
hey all welcome to shre this is Raj here friends this is a surprise video because I just came across di I's interview with the Schwab Network and uh I think he was tremendously bullish about Ai and Tech and I wanted to share this with you because this brings up a big question if you recollect my video earlier today I was saying that I need the prices to retest uh the support the resistance that they had broken through uh in order to get back into the market and be sure that this is actually a bull Channel and not a a fake uh rally um so I would like you guys to give me your feedback so let's meet after the disclaimer and you'll be watching Dan IES fish Securities Dan it is so great to talk to you you know we always love having you on I saw you out at a conference recently I saw pictures of you I should say I wasn't there um but let's talk and and you look like you were having a great time um but let's talk about the rate cut the 50 basis point a lot of people were not expecting that I'll confess myself included were you expecting 50 bips or were you in the 25 Camp I mean are our view is this was going to be the FED ripping the Band-Aid off I mean you know in terms of cutting 50 bips I think was a huge first step to what's going to be just a massive doish stance over the next 12 to 18 months and for Tech investors that's a risk-on trade it's bullish that's why today a lot of those bears that have been out for the last month after you know few years in H mode they're going back into those caves this morning it certainly seems that way I mean you've got markets hitting new all-time high today we're looking at the S&P 500 continuing to advance NASDAQ 100 uh really rallying today how does this impact the AI trade in your view through the balance of the Year oh I think Tech rips higher I mean rest of the year look first off you have a trillion dollars of AI driven catbacks coming to Tech over the next c three years and that fundamental story and we just got back from Asia and and that's accelerating not decelerating so I think it shows demands out Supply 15 to One tech AI names I believe rip higher into year end and I think going 2025 now you're going to see more second third derivatives of that trade even small caps starting to participate now I continue to believe it's 900 p.m.
in the AI party that goes to 4:00 a.m. so as you saw that Dan I seems to be super bullish he didn't hesitate to say that AI is and Tech is getting into a party that is going to keep ongoing until 4:00 a.m. uh and um that kind of uh confidence and the ability to come out and say it in public uh means that Dan IES uh definitely believes this uh aspect and probably what we are seeing today uh is the beginning of a new bull rally for AI and uh Tech sector now the next question asked by the uh moderator out here is how do you feel uh how do you believe so strongly what is your thesis uh for this and you will see Di IES articulating uh a very good reason and I'd like to add a few points on top of what he had said yeah and that's what look at the messy of AI pound here I mean that's front and center in terms of the use cases use cases are exploding today I mean we have four a amounted use cases then we did going back called four five months ago that's why you see in the strength in service now Oracle I believe ultimately you'll see strengthen in sales force and a lot other software names because now the use case the software phase of AI is starting to play out I agree with what Dan I had to say out there but I would like to put a few more use cases out there uh we already know Amazon has displayed uh two use cases one of them was U upgrading Java 17 code in-house and they saved a I think 240 million or $300 million in that process and also saved a whole lot of time uh doing the upgrade so that's a big huge uh use case and then we also know that they have some use cases going on in their Logistics section so those are two things that diives did not mention but which is we already know in the public domain that information is out there apart from this you would also have heard uh that Oracle and Amazon have uh tied up uh to do more work on AI and and we also have U Black Rock and Microsoft I think getting together uh to create uh a huge Venture for AI and we also know that Microsoft is putting up nuclear reactors mini nuclear reactors to power uh data centers so those are all huge big ticket Investments and Big Ticket Ventures and before they get into those uh they would definitely do a whole lot of introspection to make sure that there's a valid use case and a business case uh that justifies that kind of in uh Investments so I think we are on to something here the next question is about Nvidia we have seen bearish action on Nvidia despite a sterling result uh so the question was what does Dan IES thinks about Nvidia and he does not hesitate to put a bullish slant onto it but I mean we just got back from Asia and demand continues to accelerate and like I said demands out sh and Supply 15 to1 you start to look at Godfather of AI Jens Nidia this is just the start part of the AI Revolution we believe a year from now Nvidia is a $4 trillion Mark cap $4 trillion market cap I mean that's a huge statement to make uh what's the thesis behind that for NVIDIA hitting that level I mean look you have a trillion dollars of AI driven cap X they're the only game in town numbers We Believe go up significantly higher I think the streets still underestimating in terms of what ultimate demand looks like here and I think as this all plays out it is not an expensive stock and I think when you look next 6 12 months not just about nid but I think rest of tech you know we believe Tech could be up 25 30% over the next year I feel that Dan IES didn't have any hesitation to say that the rally is going to go all the way into next year and we going to look at 25 to 30% uh upside that's phenomenal now the next question is about the future of AMD can AMD catch up at all to Nvidia look Lisa Su you never bet against T I mean they will be a clear beneficiary in terms on the chip side I mean a lot of that we won't see probably for another 18 months but I don't believe a lot of that AI is being built into AMD I think AMD is going to be a cleer beneficiary and look th this is a big enough ocean for more than two boats I mean we are seeing a 1995 almost 1996 moment but this is not a 199 1999 Tech bubble movement I think that's why a lot of the Bears are going back in the hibernation mod well logically the next question was bang on spot asking Dan IES why he thinks that it's not a bubble so you say the Bears are going back into hibernation mode but is this just a moment because there have been critics who say this is you know they worry about a bubble for AI um why why aren't you worried because we see the spending I mean you see the use cases I I believe this is It's the biggest transformation we've seen Tech in the last 35 40 years it is a fourth Industrial Revolution playing out this is not hype it is real and I think we see that more and more with data points whether it's Oracle paler service now we see it but I believe Salesforce and others this is just the start of this AI Revolution obviously being led by Godfather B Jens and Nvidia nadell and Redmond but it is not stop it's not stopping and also the Bears have hated this rally for the last two years and I I think it's just going to be another painful year ahead for the Bears and then you said you were recently in Asia what stood out to you about uh you know the potential for growth within Tech and AI from your visit demands accelerating I mean we're seeing that across the whole supply chain use cases exploding you only have 3% enterpris that have even gone down the AI path we come back from Asia incrementally more bullish not just on AI the broader Tech trade including Apple despite you know many yelling fire in the crowd theater this week are you in the camp that's expecting a supercycle uh for iPhones for Apple oh this is an AI if you looked up super cycle you'd see iPhone 16 this is an AI driven super cycle underway in copertino preorders you know I believe in line with expectations no one was expecting strong pre-orders it's about going into the holiday season I this would be Apple's strongest unit year ever you also saw the answer about Apple and um iPhone 16 is aimed at the Holiday Market it's a bit ahead of schedule uh so the pre-order numbers are not daunting uh IES he says that was expected uh but that would mean that apple is a good buy at this price and lot of growth is coming up end of this year and uh into next year that's my takeaway from here now I want to show you the QQQ and explain my point and ask you a question so that you could respond in the comment section and we can share our thoughts as retail investors to try to make sense of what's happening in the market so here we have the uh QQQ and uh this is a daily chart where each of these SC is a one- Day candle and you can see that we had diagonal line of resistance uh which covered us all the way from the 10th of July uh to right now uh and we also have a horizontal line of uh resistance until yesterday which was at 4741 n which became a support today so this these are the two resistances that became support my point was that we have to see if we can challenge uh 48720 and get above it if we go above it then I'm feeling comfortable that uh we would be able to invest knowing that at the most we may retest this support and then go back up again but right now the fear is that we may not be able to break through the top and then when we come down our first level of support is going to be 4741 9 which is this horizontal line and after that it's going to be this diagonal line of support so that's where I was saying that I would be more comfortable getting in after we test this support and start going up so what I'm looking for is an action like this and this so if this is not going to happen uh we will get to know because we will go above and probably we'll come down test this and then go above which of these cases are going to happen I don't know but based on what Dan IES is saying uh it seems to me that uh he believes that we are just going to blow through this U resistance out here this red line of resistance res istance and um I'm just going to make this a bit thicker so that you can see it in the small screen so Dian I believes that we're going to go through this uh line of resistance at 48720 as if it was not there um things that are in support of U uh Dan IES from a technical perspective is a bullish mati uh momentum which is above average raising and plenty of room to the RSI and the fact uh that QQQ in the past has gone all the way up to 79.1 one two on the RSI before dropping down again so those are all in favor of what Dan IES is saying today's volume is also huge that also is in favor of what Dan IES is saying apart from the fundamental factors that he made and on top of that another factor that is in uh favor of what Danes has said is that we have broken Above This diagonal line of support however we have a gap up and I generally don't like Gap UPS because it's a irregular price action the other aspect that is worrying me is that we have a dogee candle it's a scandle of indecision uh so we'll have to anxiously wait and see what happens tomorrow but it's very interesting to note Dan IES come out and speak openly very bullishly uh we have known people who are permes and they will definitely be absolutely bullish I'm looking out to see uh if we are going to hear anything from Tom Le at all because Tom Le was of the view that things are going to move in the favor of the small caps and Jim Kramer was saying financially distressed companies which are not doing very well and can do better with a rate cut are the places where you have to go in so there are various ideas out there which one is going to materialize I don't know I'm a little bit confused with this one uh I'm on the sidelines right now but i' would like to get into the action as soon as possible so friends my question to you as a retail investor is what are you guys thinking do you agree with what Dan IES is saying or do you agree with my thesis that we're going to test the resistance come down and test the support which we broke through uh earlier today and then we start going up which is the stand standard way to do things to be safe uh or are we just going to go through is Jim kmer right uh that small caps are going to uh pull in the uh money and uh show a lot of uh growth out there so those are the questions please uh give me your comments and uh share your ideas with me and the entire share Tre Community thanks and have a great day bye for now
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