저자: Raj · 외국인
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JP모건 제이미 다이먼의 지정학적 리스크 경고를 소개하며, 이란·북한·러시아·중동 분쟁 확산과 미국 부채 등으로 인플레이션(또는 디플레이션) 가능성을 논한다. 자산 시나리오(하이퍼인플레이션/연착륙/디플레이션)별 수혜군을 설명하고, 시장이 지정학 리스크를 과소평가한다고 주장한다. 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey all welcome to shre this is Raj here uh friends this is a special video I made uh to talk about what Jamie Deon was uh warning us about uh the geopolitical risk so finally I found a popular voice that also seems to have the same concerns that I have and a little more uh let me show you this article before I proceed so we have this article in CNN business uh which says Jamie Deon wants of treacherous geopolitical conditions that are getting worse uh it's a pretty long article uh quite detailed in the sense that there's a lot of important points that he has mentioned I want to talk about that to you and add a few of my own pointers as well uh on what to do uh in case of uh inflation going out of control and in case of deflation just want to share my thoughts and get your feedback on what you think we need to do uh in such a circumstance well in this article um uh Jimmy Deon once about in geopolitical risks and he's also talking about the things that I have been talking about that is the Ukraine war and the Israel war which could have significant economic and he's saying even historical consequences and further um Jamie says that inflation is slowing but the US economy has avoided a recession the article further goes on to say that even though inflation is slowing and the US economy has avoided a recession but critical issues like large fiscal deficits infr infastructure needs and global global remilitarization remain and in terms of what he had specifically to talk about with regard to geopolitical stability uh this article reiterates his concerns about uh Global instability emphasizing that threats from countries like Iran North Korea and Russia are growing which he calls an evil AIS working against Western interests now if you have been paying attention to the news just this morning we got news that there's a spat going on between North Korea and South Korea uh North Korea is doing a lot of saber rattling and uh they have just destroyed a road that was built using money supplied by South Korea which was connecting North Korea to South Korea so things are getting a bit rough out there so and um the pressure is on us because us is continuing to have to engage in all these theaters of war and internally also you have the election coming up and there is political stabil inst ability and in this um uh with social media and internet and all these other options available I think we are looking at a very turbulent time uh especially for Western interests and uh in this article demon expressed uh uncertainty about the US economy but he also said you know always you can't just criticize us you have to add the hom that resilience is there it's supported by strong consumer spending and a solid labor market Market all of which seems to be true uh but all these strong consumer spending and labor market everything is predicated on inflation and here J has indicated there's a possibility of a no Landing scenario where the economy avoids recession uh that's a best case scenario I think and um the rising US debt is also a major concern for J demon he says that it could lead to inflation and complicate the Federal Reserves economic management and uh J Deon gives a 35% to 40% chance of the US avoiding a recession indicating he's not fully confident that inflationary pressures will ease soon and I think I also share the the worry that inflationary pressures uh may not subside not because of the way the economy is but because of the geopolitical situation that's the that's the main risk factor I worry about and also we have had hurricanes right and hurricanes have disrupted businesses they costed billions of dollars worth of losses and uh human impact also so those things are supposed to uh impact the economic reading and the GDP uh later on so initially there will be a drop and then reconstruction activities will boost the economic cycle and there'll be a boost backup but jimy Deon emphasiz emphasized that the uh impact of hurricanes is going to be uh minimal saying that they are unlikely to have a lasting global Global consequence so if you look at it from a global global perspective of course it doesn't have Global consequences but for the United States it definitely has Economic Consequences down the line and um um also this is how uh good CEO reacts uh Jimmy Deon uh in this article it mentions he has stayed neutral on the upcoming US presidential election clarifying that he has not endorsed any candidate and has no plans to take a government position this is how a good CEO of operates I think uh this is a good example to have a look at this is what classic CEOs do and um uh when I look at this entire article right it was cached based on how JP Morgan performed uh and how they have increased their loan loss reserves by 1 billion but my takeway from here uh is that U we could have uh hyperinflation because if there is no Landing uh then if inflation goes up we could have high inflation and uh if there is a geopolitical flare up uh that could also lead to hyperinflation right now uh I think the US president is lame duck because the Congress has refused to come back even to approve uh aid for the Hurricanes uh so the president is not going to be able to do much and the Democratic party is focused on Election the Republican party is focused on Election so who is going to police the world so there is s rattling in North Korea which has been added on top of Israel Hamas conflict and on top of the Russia Ukraine conflict and the U un Force which has been holding peace in Lebanon uh is now becoming a hurdle for Israel uh because they were supposed to make sure that Hezbollah did not build any tunnels and did not have any armaments in the um border region and they failed in that job but now when Iran Israel is attacking uh to remove Hezbollah from the border uh the peacekeeping force is in between so we let us see how this goes because un is refusing to pull back the peacekeeping troops and there will be collateral damage uh and that could create more vreal so we have to look at all those things now coming to my point okay uh I'm thinking of various scenarios as a retired person and um I have my own savings my retirement plan uh my source revenue streams for retirement income which is all passive so let us look at three scenarios one scenario hyperinflation uh second scenario is that the economy tames down and stays within the 2% or 3% range that the FED is looking for and uh it goes sideways and there is no major problem and the third one is uh deflation so let us start off with hyperinflation let us say that there is some kind of supply side constraint uh due to these geopolitical issues uh gas and oil prices go up and as a result of which it all percolates back into uh inflation uh in that case what would happen uh is that uh the uh value of assets will start going up in monetary terms because the value of money is going to go down there are very few goods being chased by a lot of money uh therefore it's going to cost inflation so who are the people that benefit the people who own assets are the ones that are going to benefit people who are holding shares they're going to benefit people are holding um real estate property gold bullan all those people are going to benefit and who are the people that are going to suffer the salaried people who are depending on salary to meet their expenses they are the ones who are going to suffer because as inflation goes up uh the demand for goods will go down and uh the first ones that will go down is the discretionary purchases they will go down and when the discretionary purchase uh demand goes down companies will react by reducing their Workforce and reducing their production that means the unemployment will start going up and slowly it will go into other sectors and the one the two sectors that are less likely to be affected is the luxury sector and the essential sector essential sector because the demand is inelastic people have to buy Essentials to survive this is bread salt milk uh those kind of things uh and the luxury sector because the more expensive a thing is uh the more U it gets value so luxury is also in elastic um demand so luxury items will also do very well in that kind of a scenario uh so if you are someone who has invested a lot in stock and other areas you are likely to be much better off because assets will uh retain value while money uh loses value and that's why you have to pay more money to buy the same asset in case of hyperinflation so now let's look at the second scenario everything goes hunky D and we stay within the inflation range and the FED keeps on cutting rates and we stay within the inflation range uh employment stabilizers and inflation stabilizes that's the Goldilocks kind of a scenario uh I think that everything should be good Max 7 should do very well and uh overall we'll see genomic stocks also coming back into favor uh as money becomes a little bit easier to obtain uh so uh in that kind of a scenario I think employed people will also do well and um ultra wealthy people will also do well because they are going to continue getting their uh dividends and they're going to continue getting their uh capital appreciation and stuff like that now in casee of deflation who is the person who is going to lose the most those are the high net worth people because uh they are owning assets and the asset value will drop uh because there is uh not enough money uh to chase those assets and as a result of which the value of money goes up so the people who are salar salaried people will have much better uh purchasing power and um all the productive uh Industries will continue to do do uh relatively well uh in my opinion uh and those employees will continue getting uh salaries but uh there'll be a wide range of uh Enterprises that will shut down and there'll be a lack of demand for many Goods as a result of which there'll be growing Unemployment uh and uh that's how I think uh the deflation uh scenario might unfold so ultimately at the end of the day the government will have to stimulate the demand by uh offering cash pumping cash into the economy creating jobs doing uh Public Works uh projects like building a bridge or U building a Subway or something like that and infusing cash into the economy uh to generate uh demand and to stimulate the economy so those are the three scenarios that are um possible uh the most posible one I think is um based on the geopolitical situation I do not see uh Israel uh war going down there is there is no steps being taken by anybody to stop that war or to contain that war or to hold peace talks I don't see any meaningful movement there Russia Ukraine war is becoming like a a soore out there it's uh continuing and there is no there seems to be no end to it so those two are already uh well entrenched and as they continue to Fester they're only going to broaden the theater of war more part will get involved uh and if Iran does something to blockate the state of hormos and if it uses the huis to blocked uh ships on the other side uh then there's going to be a lot of problem for countries in Southeast Asia who depend on the Middle East for oil and that's going to draw them also into the conflict and uh it just makes things very messy uh and also this North Korea's new saber rattling right now is taking place uh while we are in the middle of October November 5th is when I think we have the election so there's plenty of time between now and then for things to go really bad uh so I'm keeping my fingers crossed and I would like to hear from you guys uh why you think the market is not looking at these geopolitical uh risks and um I have seen that today oil prices had gone down in the morning when I was doing my recording uh so it's very very interesting to see that on on the surface we are seeing uh different kind of symptoms but the geopolitical uh issue I think has been uh kind of neglected or put in the back burner by most Market participants so I'm really heartened to see jimy demon bringing it up uh as a big issue I'm glad that he has brought attention to that uh but I want to hear from you guys our shre viewers what do you think about uh the geopolitical issues do you think it's something to be worried about or um you know we just going to have the center CLA rally and everything is be going to be uh hunky dory uh please let me know what is your thought process and also if you say that everything is going to be good or bad or whatever please give me your reasoning also so that I can understand where you're coming from because that will help me to change my opinion as well if I find you have a logical reason then that can inform me and I can come back with a different Theory so with that my friends I'd like to end this video here I'd like to catch up with you again in the next video bye for now
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