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Michael Bur has come out and said directly that Tesla is ridiculously overvalued. He's also said that Elon is an American treasure but a desperately incentivized futurist even earlier than me. Essentially all the incentives are in the wrong place for Elon. And he says Tesla's market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a long time.
Let's just study exactly what he means to try to figure out if Tesla is just going to be a falling knife in the future. So, first let's study exactly what he said. Tesla's market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a long time. As an aside, the Elon cult was all in on electric cars until competition showed up.
He's talking BYD and a lot of others. Then all in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, Whimo and whatnot. And now he's all in on robots until competition shows up. Yeah. So look at this. This is Tesla's total revenues. Look at this. They were doing amazing, constantly growing year in and year out.
2023 then things just stabilized. You know, competition showed up. They were competing against BYD, an extremely hard company to compete against and the annual revenues started to stagnate. And actually net income was even worse. Net net income didn't stagnate, it went down. So this is what Bur is saying.
when competition showed up. It's not easy to compete against BYD and all all of these car companies wants to do EVs and wants to make money from it. Competition has showed up. So, he's saying then Elon went all in on autonomous driving. Look at all this money we can make from autonomous driving. With taxis, we can take over the whole taxi industry, the whole ride hailing industry.
We can take over Uber's market cap. But there's competition there still with Whimo, with other car companies. And now he's all in on robots. You know, you got to find a way to make the stock keep going up in price. You got to find a bullcase scenario. If your current scenario is not working, you're not selling enough EVs to justify the market cap.
Well, let's just talk about autonomous driving. Okay, autonomous driving is not working. Let's just say we're all in on a robot company. But Buri is saying, "How long can this last? How much profit can they make before they have to deal with all the competition?" Bury said, "Say what you want, but I'm right.
CNN scraps Model S and Model X to build robots." So, they scrapped Model S and Model X. They're not selling them anymore. Tesla CEO Elon Musk turned an upstart electric vehicle maker into an industry changing powerhouse. Is pulling the plug on the two models that helped him get there. As he struggles with another quarter of declining profits and car sales, as I showed you before, profits were going down.
He announced the end of production of two models, the Model S and Model X, among the company's most expensive models on Wednesday's earnings call. Instead, the company will use that factory space to build humanoid robots instead. So, this is just one problem with Tesla and Tesla's valuation. Okay, fair enough.
How long can they actually keep making profit from EVs for? Are they just going to keep switching and keep changing the bullcase scenario? But how much profit can they actually make from things? Do they justify that massive, massive market cap? Well, they've been trying to find a reason. Another potential problem is Elon.
I love Elon personally. I think he's a genius, but there are is he does have some flaws. He's human. Look, this is what Bury said. Bury said Elon is an American treasure, but also a desperately incentivized futurist even earlier than me. Elon Musk, SpaceX, Tesla, and XAI in talks to merge. According to reports, yeah, these are the reports.
Elon Musk, SpaceX, Tesla, and XAI in talks to merge. Three of Elon's companies are in talks to merge. While the talks appear to be in the early stage, according to reports from Bloomberg and routers, it could eventually lead to at least one company folding into Space X. So, they all just become one.
Two scenarios are being hashed out. In one, SpaceX and Tesla would merge. In another, SpaceX and XAI would combine. According to reports by routers, a merger between SpaceX and XAI could take place ahead of a planned SpaceX IPO this year. This will bring products like the Grock Checkbox, Xplatform, Starlink satellites, and SpaceX rockets together under one corporation.
At the end of the day, a stock is all about profits. And yeah, you can have these big dreams for the future. And yeah, Elon's Elon's made his dreams come true in the past with, you know, his payment platform, PayPal or X.com, what it was called back then. He's made EVs come true. Maybe he'll do the same for, you know, space, for AI, for robots.
But he is incentivized to be a futurist. And yeah, there's still that big question on how much profit can they actually make from all of this at the end of the day because that's all what stock what stocks are about. Stocks is all about profit. How much money are you actually going to make at the end of the day?
And competition showing up in EVs. Is he giving up on the EV game completely? Of course, he's not. But he is kind of moved the mission to a different industry. And this is the last last tweet of Michael Bur. He said Tesla is ridiculously overvalued. Tesla published a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting.
The car maker posted estimates showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,000 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier. Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier.
Tesla's a growth company. Look at its P. Look at its PE ratio. Crazy. It's 375. What does that mean? It means one thing. It's priced to grow. Those earnings have to grow by a ton in the future to justify the current valuation. But its core business, the main way it makes money predominantly by far is electric vehicles.
And electric vehicles is not growing. It's not even staying the same. It's actually doing the opposite. It's going down. So, the company's priced to grow, but the core of its business is decreasing. It's declining.
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