저자: CharlieMunger,WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 정형화된 투자 공식은 없으며 가치와 가격의 괴리를 보고 판단한다고 설명. 장기적으로 미국 경제는 1인당 GDP가 크게 성장해 왔다고 강조. 금·암호화폐 등 비생산적 자산은 더 비싸게 팔 사람을 기대하는 투기이며 결국 나쁜 결말을 맞는다고 비판. 멍거는 암호화폐 거래를 강하게 혐오한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Well, I can't give you a formulaic approach because I don't use one and I just mix all I just mix all the factors and and if the gap between value and and price is not attractive, I go on to something else. And sometimes it's just quantitative. For instance, when Costco was selling at about 12 or 13 times earnings, I thought that was a ridiculously low value just because the competitive strength of the business was so great and it was so likely to keep doing better and better.
But I can't reduce that to a formula for you. I like the cheap real estate. I like the competitive position. I liked the way the personnel system worked. I I liked everything about it and I thought even though it's three times book or whatever it was then uh that it it's worth more. But that's not a formula that anybody if you want a formula you should go back to graduate school.
They'll give you lots of formulas that won't work. This is the longest we've ever gone in the Bergkshire meeting without Charlie saying that getting to the point where he prefers Costco to Bergkshire. Multiple times in my life, people felt the country was more divided than ever. And I've gone through periods where people I knew and admired thought that because the other party was in in uh power that that there never would be another election that the constitution would have.
I've heard everything. Now the interesting thing is this paper from 1942. Since then, there have been 14 American presidents just since my young venture into the stock market at 11. Uh, I've lived under 14 of the 44 presidents the United States has had. Now, they call Trump 45, but they count Grover Cleveland twice.
So, there's really only been 44 presidents of the United States. And 14 of the 44 have been during this period when that $10,000 became 51 million. Seven have been Republicans. Seven have been Democrats. One has been assassinated. One has resigned under pressure. Uh it works. You know, it it it if you if you'd told me at the start, you know, that that you'd have a Cuban missile crisis and you'd have you'd have nuclear weapons and you'd have a panic in 2000, financial panic and you'd have many recessions and you'd have war in the streets in the late60s from a divided country.
You'd say, why the hell are you buying stocks? And through it all, you know, America in fits and starts, but America really really moves ahead. And uh uh we are always we survived the Civil War. I mean, it hate to think of having to do it that way, but this country in only less than three of my lifetimes, if you go back three of my lifetimes, uh you go back 263 years, I guess, and uh Thomas Jefferson is 12 years old, and that's just three.
And there was nothing here. it. You know, you've flown in from all over to Omaha today and you flew over a country with more than 75 million owner occupied homes and 260 million vehicles and great universities and medical systems and everything. And it's all it's all a net gain in less than three of my lifetime.
So, and we've had these events uh since since I started buying my first stock. This country really really works and it and it always will have lots of disagreements and after every election you'll have people feeling the world is coming to an end and you know how could this happen? And I remember my future father-in-law in 1952, he wanted to have a talk with me before uh his daughter and I got married.
So kind of reluctantly, I sat down with him and he he said, "Warren," he said, "there's just one thing I want to tell you." He said, "You're going to fail." Uh he said, "You know, the Democrats are going to get in. you know, they're going to take over the country and you're going to fail, but don't feel responsible for it because it's not your fault.
I mean, he wanted to absolve me from this feeling that one of his daughter was starving to death. It was my fault. And and I kept buying stocks and doing a little bit better all the time, but and if the Republicans were in, it was okay. And it was because of them that I was doing well. And if they were out, forget it.
It was all going to disappear. stuff. I've been I've seen a lot of American public opinion over the years. I've seen a lot of media commentary. I've seen the headlines. And when you get all through with it, this country has six times the per capita GDP growth uh the GDP per capita that it had when I was born.
One person's lifetime. Six for one change. Everybody in this room essentially is living better in multiple ways than John D. Rockerfeller senior was who was the richest person you know in the world at the uh during my early years. Well, generally non-productive assets remain, you know, if you bought gold at the time of Christ and you figure the compound rate on it, you know, it's it maybe a couple ten of 1% uh the it it's essentially is not going to deliver anything other than supposed scarcity you know because they'll only you can only mine so many but so what I mean what does what does it produce itself uh you know the check is a wonderful idea just imagine how the world would be without being able to write checks or have wire transfer of funds but it doesn't make the check intrinsely itself worth a lot of money and if you said you can't use something called check with a little piece of paper you'd do something else to transfer money I I think that anytime you buy a nonproductive asset, uh, you [clears throat] are counting on somebody else later on to buy a non-productive asset because they think they can sell it to somebody for more money.
And it's been tried with tulips and it's been tried, it's been tried with various things over time and it does come to a bad ending. I'm having you have a hard time. You can you can think of think of raw land. I mean, the Louisiana purchase was, say, $15 million for 800,000 or so square miles of land.
In fact, you're sitting on land that came with the Louisiana purchase. And and uh so what' we pay? We paid 20 bucks a square mile and uh you know, 6 [clears throat] 40 acres in square mile and you're down to three cents a or something. So that was a pretty good purchase of an what was then a non-productive property.
But it depend but it's very hard. You can buy stamps. Bill Gross got every you know collected a wonderful stamp collection and it sold for more money in the end but it's dependent on somebody else wanting to buy hoping they will sell it for more money and so on. And in the end you make your money out of productive assets.
If you buy a farm, you you estimate what the crops what amount per acre of soybeans or corn or whatever may be raised and how much you have to pay the farmer that farms it for you and what your taxes will be and various things. And you make a conclusion based on what the asset itself will produce over time.
And that's an investment. when you buy something because you're hoping tomorrow morning you're going to wake up, you know, and the price will be higher. The only, you know, you need more people coming into it than are leaving. and and they uh and you can get that and it will feed on itself for a while and sometimes for a long while and sometimes to extraordinary numbers but in the end but they come to bad endings and cryptocurrencies will come to bad endings and along with the fact that there nothing being produced in the way of value from the asset that that uh you also have the problem that it draws in a lot of charlatans and that sort of thing who are trying to create various sorts exchanges or whatever it may be.
It, you know, it it's something where where people who are of less than stellar character see an opportunity to uh clip people who are trying to get rich because their neighbors getting rich buying this stuff that neither one of them understands. It will come to a bad ending. Charlie, well, I like cryptocurrencies a lot less than you do.
And so to me, it's just dementia. And I think the people who are professional traders that go into trading cryptocurrencies, it it's it's just disgusting. It's like [snorts] somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be left out [snorts] to the extent that this brought we're being webcast around the world. I hope some of our stuff doesn't translate very well, actually.
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