저자: TristanCooper · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 2021년 들어 Daily Journal 포트폴리오에서 알리바바(BABA)만 신규 매수했고, 이는 포트폴리오의 약 20%에 달하는 대규모 매수라고 소개. 멍거 매수 배경으로 중국 경제 성장률(연 6~7%, 미국 약 2%)과 중국 기업의 성장성을 언급하며 멍거의 "중국 기업이 더 강하고 빠르게 성장한다"는 발언을 인용. 알리바바의 잉여현금흐름은 2018년 176억 달러, 2019년 238억 달러, 2020년 354억 달러로 꾸준히 증가. 주가 대비 잉여현금흐름 배수(P/FCF)는 약 16.4배로 미국 기업 대비 낮은 편. 주가는 300달러 이상에서 200달러 미만으로 하락했으며, 앤트 그룹 IPO 취소, 디디 사태, 중국 정부 규제 우려가 원인으로 제시. 알리바바는 중국 및 해외 이커머스, 클라우드, AI, 디지털 미디어 등을 영위하는 우량 기업으로 평가. 다만 중국 기업 투자의 정치·규제 리스크가 있어 이를 감수할 가치가 있는지는 판단을 유보하며, 멍거는 그렇다고 본다고 정리. 이 영상은 특정 종목 가격 방향에 대한 1~3개월 예측 발언은 포함하지 않음.
다듬은 글
charlie munger you guys all know who he is he's warren buffett's right-hand man he's the vice chairman of berkshire hathaway and he's the type of guy that won't beat around the bush if you have something on your face he'll tell you if you're being stupid he'll let you know if you're about to make a silly investment he'll guide you back onto the right path and speaking of investments i've been going over charlie munger's portfolio and the stocks that he's been buying now if you know anything about charlie munger you'll know that he doesn't buy stocks often at all in fact if you look at the stocks that he's bought in 2021 have a guess as to how many stocks that he's bought has he bought five stocks has he bought 10 stocks has he bought 20 stocks okay you guys already know the answer is in the title of the video charlie manga has only bought one stock and that one is drumroll prelis alibaba if we look at the daily journal corporation the entity in which charlie munger manages their portfolio they have only bought one stock in 2021 and that is alibaba ticker symbol b-a-b-a and this was a big purchase it made up almost 20 of their portfolio 165 000 shares in total but hang on isn't alibaba the chinese e-commerce company yes it is didn't warren buffett tell us that he only sticks to american stocks yes he did so why is charlie among his only stock by alibaba a chinese stock the biggest competitor to america in my opinion there's a few key reasons why he bought baba and the first and i've talked about this before on my channel and that is because of china as a whole's growth china if you take a look at their gdp how much they're growing their economy by every year it's averaging around that six to seven percent mark so the businesses in china which produce their economy are growing on average six to seven percent yearly the united states gdp growth is only around two percent so china's growing almost three times quicker than usa's companies as charlie manga said and i quote i think chinese companies are stronger than ours and are growing faster those are some important words and it might give you a hint as to why charlie manga has plowed 19 of his portfolio into ali baba but the key thing why i believe manga chose alibaba specifically is because of their cash flow alibaba seemed to be consistently growing their cash flow year in and year out as we can see here it was 17.6 billion in 2018 then it increased to 23.8 billion in 2019 and even in 2020 while most businesses got hurt alibaba they increased their free cash flow to 35.4 billion dollars and if you compare this to their price alibaba has a price to free cash flow of just 16.4 meaning if there was zero growth and free cash flow it would take 16 years to get your money back this price to free cash flow right here is very low in today's market you compare it to basically any other us company and that u.s company will be a lot more expensive so the free cash flow is good the free cash flow relative to price is also good and one of the reasons why is because the price has been hit really hard over the past year it's gone down from just over three hundred dollars to just under two hundred dollars this is because of reasons like the ant ipo cancellation the didi saga and increased fear over the chinese government's regulation of its own companies so that's the big thing with alibaba it's a great company they do e-commerce in china and around the world they have a cloud computing segment and an ai segments they have the digital media segments as well as the innovation in the other segments their financials and their free cash flow that they're generating is basically what any stock owner wants to see the problem is the risks that come along with owning a chinese company as well as the few cancellations that alibaba have experienced so is that risk worth it i don't want to say yes or no but charlie manga certainly thinks so
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