저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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소비자 신뢰도와 기대인플레이션이 낮아지고 인플레이션이 여전히 높게 지속될 것으로 봄. 이익 침체(earnings recession)가 임박했고 ETF 자금 유출은 항복(capitulation) 초기 신호로 해석. 단기 바닥을 정확히 맞추긴 어렵다며 현금을 조금씩 늘리고 분할 매수 전략을 언급. 사이버보안 등 일부 섹터 기회를 거론.
다듬은 글
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i can't even go on a run without tesla and elon musk doing something to ruin the day…
이 정도는 기본 번역이 아니라 자막 교정 수준이라, 아래는 영문 원문을 영어 자막 그대로 다듬은 결과입니다.
Tesla just fired 200 people on its Autopilot teams. The CEO of Pinterest just quit, and all the indices dropped like a rock today, giving up the minor rally we'd had since the end of last week. The Nasdaq 100 was down 2.98%, almost a full 3%, leading to a plunge. So what happened? What's happening, and why are the dangers becoming more apparent now that we have to pay attention?
소비자 신뢰도 바닥과 인플레이션의 끈적함
In this video we're going to talk about that. Remember, if you want to get $200 for free, go to meetkevin.com/tasty and deposit $2,000 with their trading platform.
First, some background. This chart is the consumer confidence chart. I covered exactly where we went on it, and I've heard some of you telling me I need to get myself out of the bottom right corner, so I'll move myself right here. How does that look? I think that looks good.
Look at this near-decade low in consumer confidence. The white line is the index of consumer expectations, and the yellowish line is the index of consumer confidence. These are two different things. Consumer confidence is about their own personal willingness to spend money. Consumer expectations are more like: what do you think is going to happen in the market? Sometimes consumers are confident personally because they have more savings, but when they're asked about the markets, they say, "Oh no, the market's going to be a big problem." You're going to see why this is starting to become a real danger in the stock market. And no, I'm not just talking about the earnings recession that's looming, which is already starting. We're halfway there. But toward the end of the video I'll tell you the particular danger that is partly being caused by today's consumer confidence drop.
We're seeing consumer confidence fall because inflation didn't peak when we thought it would. Our forecast is that inflation may still tick up a little before it starts rotating down. Even by 2023 we still expect inflation to be over 6% by the end of the year. That's a problem. Inflation is becoming very sticky and hard to get down.
Something that is starting to be a sign that maybe we'll actually get it down: we're seeing inventory skyrocket. This chart is inventory-to-sales ratio. If you sell $100 and have $140 of inventory, your inventory-to-sales ratio is about 1.4. In 2020, the orange line for general merchandise stores sat in the 1.2 to 1.3 region. It exploded toward the end of 2021 and into 2022, and hopefully that finally adds downward pressure on inflation. But when you combine this terrible consumer confidence with how long it will take these inventory levels to push inflation down, people aren't happy, and it's taking too long even for PPI numbers to come down. PPI hasn't moved down at all yet. Prices paid are somewhat stabilizing, supplier delivery delays are slowly inflecting down, and backlogs are slowly inflecting down, but prices paid, the most important one, doesn't have the actual inflection point yet. People still believe inflation will come down. The problem is at what cost, and that's why consumer expectations are getting devastated. I'll show you exactly why this relates to big problems for the stock market, and I'll tell you the big danger right after a message from our sponsor.
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인플레이션 기대치와 ETF 자금 이탈, 항복 신호
This is the breakevens chart. We've seen it before. The five-year breakeven is generally the market's predictor for what the market thinks inflation will do. You could survey consumers, or you could look at the bond market, and this is the bond market's version. The white line is the five-year breakeven and the blue line is the ten-year. There's a very powerful trend here. If you look closely, where we sit right now on the five-year breakeven, around 2.8%, we haven't seen since before the war in Ukraine. That's very good. We had a slight spike after the Delta variant, and now we're lower than all of those spikes. We like seeing breakevens come down. But if breakevens are falling and inflation expectations are down, why is confidence so low? Because we think we might end up pushing markets into a recession, whether an earnings recession or an actual GDP recession.
So what are people doing? Folks, I hate to say it, but this is a dirty chart. I don't like it. Here's the big danger, the point of this video. When we had our dip in January, people threw $5.5 billion into ETFs, whether QQQ, VTI, VT, whatever. That's $5.5 billion of inflows on the first January dip. Back then I was saying sell, get it out. I bought a chunk here, and things kept going down since. I did some saving because I also repositioned my portfolio. You can see every move I make by checking out the Stocks and Psychology of Money group linked below. In March we had $42 billion of inflows. That's when people really bought the dip, which is great. Then we had the end-of-March rally, which people also bought, not so good. Now we're down at these lower levels, where I've also been buying, but there's a difference between me and everyone else in the market. Now people are starting to pull money out.
Look at this. At the end of May we had $30 billion of inflows into ETFs for the first time, but we sold this rally off, the last six percent move up from the bottom in the S&P 500. We sold the rip. It was a minor rip, but we sold instead of buying the dip, and $10 billion left the ETF market. That's sad, because with a crystal ball, the best move would have been outflows here and lots of inflows down here where prices are lower. But people are finally saying, "I can't take it anymore. Consumer confidence is too low, inflation is too high for too long. We're taking our money out." This is the beginning of capitulation. When we start seeing outflows like this, it's bad news in the short term, but it's also really good news, because we need people to finally get out. When we're going to be the little paper-hand weenie babies... I know I paper-handed in January, but I got back in about 60 days later. Do I wish I'd waited 90 or 120 days? Of course. But rebalancing my portfolio saved me from being down another eight million dollars, so I'm extremely happy I did it.
For those of you with cash on the sidelines, this is good. In about two weeks I'll probably be sitting on about 15% of my portfolio in cash. If this capitulation comes in the next few weeks, around when we hopefully hit peak inflation over the next two or three months, that could be the juiciest buying opportunity. Who knows. Wall Street still says we could see a potential bounce before the next earnings season, a 38 to 50 percent retracement, but that may be wishful thinking.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is another potential reason for optimism. This green line is the zero percent line. We went slightly negative on real GDP estimates, but we're bouncing a little off that floor, which is good. We have to balance these nominal signs of optimism and capitulation signs with the fact that we still have ridiculous consensus earnings estimates, and the earnings recession will hit margins at a lot of companies. It's going to be tough to find companies not getting EPS revisions to the downside or guiding lower. Personally I'm looking at SaaS, and obviously Tesla, but that's more of a demand-driven story with so much demand and such an early growth curve that its EPS will grow. SaaS companies could be very interesting in this period, where you might not see big EPS misses at some of them. Those are the things I'll be watching. Cybersecurity has sold off a lot, and communications have too, so I think there are opportunities. We've discussed some of these in the course member livestreams. I want to be as clear as possible, because people get confused. They say, "Kevin, a lot of what you're saying sounds like bad news." Yes, and I'm not going to pretend I can perfectly time the bottom. In this kind of market it's very difficult to time. My approach is just a little bit at a time, as I get cash, a little bit at a time.
I did a little buying this morning and a little options playing. Check out those alerts if you haven't seen them yet. Some straddles, we'll see what happens. I'm kind of excited. If we get capitulation in the next couple of months, hopefully sooner than later, that'd be nice. Things are going to get worse before they get better, but boy, it's going to be a good old fight and a good opportunity. That's my take, at least. Goodbye.
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