저자: 미상 · 외국인
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연준 대차대조표 축소(QT)와 국채 입찰 부진으로 채권시장에 균열이 생기고 있으며 주식시장 하락이 이어질 수 있다고 주장. 애널리스트 추정치는 아직 하향되지 않았고 실적 쇼크 위험이 크다는 진단. 대응으로 인내, 실적 미스 대비, 성장 기업(테슬라 언급), 부채 상환, 부동산 준비를 제시. 중간에 스폰서 광고(무료 주식, 쿠폰)가 다수 포함됨.
다듬은 글
in march of 2020 we literally experienced a v-shape recovery of markets for every dollar that was printed the stock market went up 92 cents well unfortunately capitulation-style bear markets like the one we're in now could experience the complete opposite especially since markets like this tend to bleed out through long drawn-out bottoming processes and the great reset may be on its way folks something happened today that signals more doom and gloom to come that's right more thought and you need to know about it so you can be prepared in fact it's not just one three very important things that we have to pay attention to to help identify when are we potentially close to a bottom and how much more pain do we have to go and no i'm not talking about consumer numbers again we already know from the barclays report last week that the consumer is showing strong evidence both in high incomes and low incomes high being a problem as well because they're kind of keeping everything else propped up right now but we're seeing a precipitous decline in credit card spent by both of these this must be so bad that amazon is now pre-announcing that instead of having one prime day per year like they always have generally around july 12th which is when this year's is amazon has now announced that they're going to have a second prime day sometime in the fall a date not determined yet usually you only see that when company sales are plummeting with the exception of our sales our sales for our programs of building your wealth they're exploding because people are investing in themselves and we're extending the coupon code that was supposed to expire on friday to thursday of this week just because so many of you have reached out asking for an extension of just a few days so it will be expiring on thursday and the price will be going up again but no these are not what issues we have there are three issues we have to pay attention to the first big problem that happened today might be part of the cracks that we're starting to see because of is the process of the federal reserve trying to make this white line right here go down see this explosion of the white line right here this is when we printed money like crazy during the pandemic and the federal reserve's balance sheet exploded by more than six trillion dollars so that we can give out stemi checks like california is still giving out stemi checks in 2022 because somehow the way to fight inflation is by printing and giving away more money but this is a problem this is the federal reserve's balance sheet and we need to get this white line probably down to right around here the five trillion dollar level from up here that means we got a long way to go and remember the stock market went up 92 cents for every dollar we printed during this period of time here in 2020 and 2021.
it was only about three months ago that the federal reserve finally woke up over here and stopped printing money well folks now we're starting to see cracks in the bond market potentially because of the start of quantitative tightening listen to this this morning we had the worst day in the treasury market since december of 2010 weak demand in the bond auction this morning when there was a 47 billion dollar five-year note auction was so bad that we saw a 3.5 basis point higher price than expected on the same day's bidding that in case it doesn't make sense to you is totally fine all you have to know is it was the worst amount of demand that we've seen for bonds in the worst mispricing in 12 years that's a sign that quantitative tightening even though we've just begun is already starting to show signs of cracking markets and this is probably why the stock market likely started turning red today as well again we're just at this little process that's all that's all we've done so far and we got to do that that leads us to the second big problem but first moomoo moomoo is an advanced stock trading platform that is offering all of my viewers up to 10 totally free stocks plus a free lucid stock each stock you get is worth between three and twenty five hundred dollars so there's literally no reason not to get this free money when you sign up and deposit with moomoo moomoo makes buying and selling stocks so simple and easy while we're all able to get the relevant information and analytics that we need while we're investing straight with the moomoo platform no more needing to go to other platforms or news websites whatever because they offer advance a trading and research tools that are customizable with more than 60 technical indicators and 22 different drawing tools which really helps with the countless hours i spend doing research and technical analysis moomoo gives you real time quotes so you can be sure prices that you're seeing are up-to-date ones not 15-minute delayed prices and they also have no trading fees and also let you trade totally for free during their extended trading hours from 4 am to 8 pm let's get up to 10 totally free stocks plus an exclusive free lucid stock today get 10 free stocks and a lucid stock when you sign up with moomoo today the second big problem that we face is the lack of preparedness potentially by retail and individual investors take a look at this chart here on the top it shows us a sentiment not of consumers but of stock exchanges it's a measure of what the stock market sentiment is like and take a look at how we've bottomed out here here here and here but despite this crazy sentiment where are retail position well look at that we are still 67.5 percent invested in this market and that might be a little bit of a problem but i don't know if we could be blamed for that because if we look at analysts analyst recommendations are at the highest levels that we've seen since 2002 and we haven't even gone into the earnings recession yet or the actual recession where we actually see people spend less money and that shows up in earnings analysts can give ratings of between one a sell rating and five a strong buy rating right the average analyst levels right now for consensus eps earnings estimates for companies stands at a level of 4 which we have not seen that level since 2000 over here how how in the world are all of a sudden expectations for earnings this high going into a recession it doesn't make sense now again you can't blame then investors for being in the market especially since shout out to trey we do have some bullish signals trey posted this chart here showing that usually after we see these kinds of lows on volatility we can oftentimes see new highs in the stock market or at least have bullish weeks to follow and so this makes for quite a confusing market in fact even though we saw the put call ratio skyrocket over the last few weeks we're now back to roughly average levels so we go through these periods of extreme fear and then we kind of relax again but this is also very common in bear markets the big danger that we have to watch out for though is earnings because earnings is expected to be the next big drag on stocks that's the third big problem that we have as part of this crazy reset that we're going through take a look at this chart over here these are revenues in blue right here you can see some nice revenue growth these in red are priced to earnings multiple so we've seen a collapse in valuations of companies obviously as multiples are plummeting but what we haven't yet seen is earnings move down and again maybe maybe analysts are right we've seen this chart before earnings expectations have not been revised down but the problem with that is anytime we've had large crashes like here's the great recession right here we always see earnings expectations come down and it just has not happened yet we're right here and see the blue lines are equity prices the white line are consensus estimates we saw it in the dot com era we saw it in the great recession we saw it during covid we saw it at the end of 2018 we generally see earnings estimates go down it's just for some reason not happening yet and so when you combine all three of these things you kind of have a little bit of a scary portrait you're in the situation where you've got the treasury markets great reset that could be a big old problem when we go through the real quantitative tightening cycle we've got people pretty bullish on the market which hey you know what i'm optimistic about the market as well maybe not in the short term but of course in the long run you've got retail in the market more than out of the market you've got a lot of signals for reasons to be bullish but we are not seeing those earnings revisions down yet and it's a sign that the bottom just isn't here yet so what do we do well number one patience we're not even 50 through the year so there's likely more pain to come for at least another six months if not potentially a whole other year number two prepare for companies to miss on earnings and potentially reposition to companies that can still grow earnings above expectations this is where you can make a very strong case for tesla even if you have cancellations of a lot of orders tesla expects to still grow earnings at 50 percent we'll see what happens number three pay down debt don't get liquidated you have to be a survivor during these times number four prepare yourself to buy real estate remember we've got a brief extension o thursday link down below check out especially the real estate ones and number five share this video if you found it helpful and good luck
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