저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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Ed Yardeni은 반도체 매도는 엔비디아 반독점 조사 보도 영향으로 봤고, 미국 경기는 둔화가 아닌 정상화로 판단. 중국은 부동산 거품 붕괴와 디플레이션 수출로 수년간 약세 예상. 9월 연준은 25bp 인하 전망. S&P500은 11월 5일 대선 전까지 7월 16일 저점 아래에서 등락하는 횡보 예상. 대선은 분할 정부(교착)를 선호하고 일방 전면 장악은 불리하다고 봄. 인도는 젊은 인구와 교육 수준으로 중국·일본과 비교 불가하다고 주장.
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but Ed yardin on the show with us to talk about how the global sentiment is like and um Ed clearly that shake off uh with the tech heavy uh you know stocks is causing some amount of ripple effect across the globe uh but does it seem like this is going to be knee-jerk and settle in and it's just another day in a very intact bull market it does seem like just another day it's very reminiscent of what happened not very long ago in early August we had the carry trade unwind as you mentioned and now I would call this sort of the semiconductor unwind uh what happened on Tuesday I think somebody must have leaked the information that the Department of Justice was going toh investigate Nvidia for monop monopolistic behavior and uh as a matter of fact at the end of the day on Tuesday after the market closed uh the Department of Justice announced exactly that they weren't going to investigate Nvidia so I I think a lot of that selloff on Tuesday was related to that very issue and that U had a negative impact on other semiconductors again you were correct in assessing that uh if people are selling inidia by selling an ETF then obviously there's going to be some very much related stocks going down and markets are down because there is fear of a Slowdown but bond yields commodity prices they're telling you a completely different story what is the right way of looking at this Market a market which could benefit if rates come down or a market which in a sense is getting ready to embrace the Slowdown well I I think we do have to look at it globally and the global economy is weak uh it's weak to a large extent because China is I think in a property depression and overall I think they're basically in a recession their economic indicators remain very weak and they are exporting deflation to the rest of the world and um they're also not consuming as much oil so oil prices are coming down but this all benefits uh everybody else that consumes oil everybody else that benefits from from lower prices and I think uh if we're talking about the United States uh I disagree with a widely held view that the economy is slowing I think what it's really doing is just normalizing it's kind of going coming back to the uh prepandemic normal and in that scenario I don't see the unemployment rate going up a lot I see the labor market continuing to hang in there pretty well I think Friday's employment number is actually going to be on a surprisingly strong side because July's number was impacted by the weather so you put it all together and it's not a bad scenario morning I wanted to understand your view given the fact that off late the markets have been fairly sensitive to the kind of potential growth scares that we've seen over the past few weeks um do you think that that is going to put increased importance or relevance on the kind of jobless data that we're expecting and the other important data points later this week yeah well as as you know uh every Employment Number we've had this year has been described as the most important import Employment Number we've ever had and I guess you can say the same thing about the number that's about to come out uh if it's remarkably weak which I don't expect then everybody will be talking about a 50 basis point cut instead of a 25 basis point cut by the U by the by the FED but then that raises the potential for another carry trade on wine so I think the fed's going to do 25 basis points in uh at at the at their September meeting coming up shortly and uh I think that the growth Scare at least in the United States I think that's going to become Le less of a factor and increasingly I think the the the elections of November 5th will be the key issue that the market will be struggling with so I see the US Stock Market the S&P 500 continuing to be choppy just kind of moving sideways with a lot of volatility below its July 16th low and I think once we get past the November 5th uh election uh invite me back and we can talk about the results uh I think the market will be happiest if it's gridlock it'll I don't think it'll be very happy if it's a sweep where either the Democrats or the Republicans get all three branches of the government all all two branches I should say Congress and the White House okay Ed I've got a great report from Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley India which is that look at China when it was going through a huge economic bull run the economy in a sense chugged along for at least 15 years they're making a case that what happened to Japan in ' 80s what happened to America in '90s what happened to China and the first uh uh you know first decade of this Century the same could happen to India at least in next uh in next 5 years do you agree with that well I think uh China is a uh A peculiar case I mean uh there are similarities with Japan um especially with the Aging demographics but of course China exacerbated their demographic uh profile their geriatric demographic profile with a one child policy that's come back to to haunt them and so China has had a very difficult time stimulating their their consumers and so again there are similarities with Japan but I think um the uh the problems for China are much on a much bigger scale uh but there are similarities also obviously with the real estate bubble and that's burst and so it suggests to me that it's going to be several years before China comes out of this U we weak environment um it took Japan quite a while to come out of it and it's it's done it quite well and I think China will eventually get out of it India meanwhile I think U has a lot going for it we all know the factors of uh the relatively young population and their uh relatively highly educated population uh so I I don't think you can really make any comparisons between India today or even in 10 or 20 years and Japan and China uh where over the past several years okay all right Ed really appreciate your time and glad you could join us with your inputs
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