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There is a special type of fatigue that occurs when you hold Ethereum for a series of bad weeks. You watched it rise to almost $5,000 in August 2025. You saw how he gave away half of that growth. And when the summer rally finally allowed us to safely look at our accounts, the sell-offs returned. According to 24/7 Wall Street, investors withdrew about $955 million from ETH-ETFs in the first half of October.
And the price of ETH dropped again to around $2,400. Bitcoin has not escaped this either. In mid-October, it was trading around $81,000, still 36% below its record high of $126,080. If it seems like the market is urging you to give up, you've got the right mood. Two of the most prominent voices in the crypto world took to the main stage at Token 2049 in Singapore on October 7 and read this very market very differently.
Tom Lee leads research at Fundstrat and heads Bitmain, a public company that holds more ETH than any other on the planet. He had 20 minutes, a set of charts, and a forecast that would seem illogical for your portfolio. Raul Pal spent years at Goldman Sachs and was co-manager of the GLG Global Macro Fund before founding Real Vision.
He presented a long-term view. In this video, we'll break down the evidence behind Tom Lee's prediction, where the next wave of capital could come from, how Raul Pal is coping with a constantly falling market, and what Tom Lee's goals for Ethereum say about the future. Now let's begin. We are at the beginning of a crypto bull market.
And if I had to give a date, I would say it was August, but you might question whether it's a bull market because people think it's volatile, but that's what happens at the beginning of a bull trend. So, let me introduce you to my presentation. First, we have a full-fledged crypto bull market. Too many signs point to something that only happens during a bull market.
So, let me begin. First, we have institutional support. I mean, it's not just Franklin who says a "bull" market is beginning. It's Fidelity, BlackRock, all the big players. I've never seen this in the last three crypto winter cycles, never seen institutions make any announcements about it. We also have a technical argument.
Bitcoin is above its 200- day moving average. This happened on August 19. Also on August 19, a “golden cross” occurred on Ethereum. But look, the last time Bitcoin crossed its 200- day line was last August, no, last April. But starting in 2010, let 's start with a quarter that most people have already forgotten about.
From July to September, Bitcoin rose by about 43%—its best third quarter since 2017. Ether is up about 71%—its best third quarter ever, according to CoinGlass data. And spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US attracted about $6.3 billion in net new funds over those three months. So , if you have a confident vision of where the market is headed next, you can implement it with Kalshi Perpetuals.
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Past Bitcoin bear markets have been brutal. Approximately minus 84% from peak to trough in 2018 and about 77% in 2022 . This time, the drop from the October 2025 record to a low of around $59,000 in early summer was about 53 %. Analyst Ben Cowen noted on Bankless in late September that this was the smallest peak-to- trough drop Bitcoin had ever seen .
Cowen is worth listening to, as he spent much of 2026 calling it a “bear” market year. In an interview with Real Vision published on October 4, he said that Bitcoin’s return to its 50-week moving average has made him reconsider that view, as this same structure has historically marked the end of Bitcoin bear markets.
And all this happened against a difficult background. The yield on 10- year Treasury bonds reached about 5.3% in early October. This is the highest level since 2002, when oil was hovering around $100 per barrel. So what does Tom Lee see in this combination that the price chart alone won't show? But here's the thing.
This could be the biggest bull market we've ever seen, you know? So, I'm going to give you four reasons why this bull market is different from the others, okay? As Joe Lubin says, you're not optimistic enough. OK. The first reason is the big institutional story around tokenization. In the " bull" market of 2016-2017, everything revolved around ICOs.
This was a story for retail investors. The period 2019-2021 was an NFT boom, but it was also a retail boom. Of course, new and wonderful technologies have come out of this. Last year we had a boom in stablecoins. It was interrupted by that October 10th auto- deallocation event that wiped out a lot of people and started a huge crypto winter .
But we are here. An institutional wave awaits us. BlackRock and other investment managers want to tokenize everything on blockchains. Vlad Tenev of Robinhood, which I think will become one of the top 10 financial institutions within a decade , says we are at the beginning of a supercycle. Everything that works on traditional financial rails will be tokenized.
This is a huge wave. How big is this wave? Well, remember, the crypto market is a $2 trillion market. Today, there are $200 trillion in liquid assets outside of crypto, growing by $7 trillion per year. If you've ever wondered if there's money to build data centers, there's $ 7 trillion in new money coming in every year.
Just the three largest markets—that's 160 trillion that could go into crypto. Remember, the ratio is 1 to 37. One trillion dollars invested in crypto will turn it into a market worth 37 trillion dollars. And , of course, a lot of this is happening on Ethereum. BlackRock, JP Morgan, Robinhood—they are building on Ethereum.
Ethereum, of course, has a huge community. The number of developers today is equal to the rest of the community combined. So, this is a massive wave. Look who's been building since the summer. On July 1, Robinhood launched the Robinhood chain mainnet, its own network for tokenized stocks built as a second- layer Ethereum solution.
On July 15, the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, the company that provides settlements for most stock transactions in the United States, conducted real-world tokenized trading transactions with more than 30 firms. And on August 3, BlackRock launched a tokenized share class of one of its Treasury money market funds on Ethereum, with Bank of New York Mellon acting as transfer agent.
If you want to know when this tokenized money will start moving and what it means for your Bitcoin and Ethereum, I'm tracking it , no panic, . Ark Invest’s half-year digital asset report, published on October 13, valued tokenized assets at approximately $35 billion, up from $20 billion six months earlier.
Tokenized Treasuries accounted for the largest share, about 15 billion, and tokenized stocks grew the fastest. That's a 75% jump in half a year, and it's still a sliver of a leap compared to the stock and bond markets that these firms want to bring online. The question remains how big this pool really is and how much of it needs to move for your coins to feel it.
The second difference of this “bull” market is that there is a huge redistribution of wealth. I don't think people have talked about this enough, but Vlad says it's 100 trillion over the next 10 years. We can observe this. This is data from the IRS. In the past " bull" cryptocurrency market, okay? $400 billion in wealth was inherited.
In the next cycle, it will be around 1.5 to 2 trillion. These are representatives of the baby boomer generation or older people who are passing away and millennials are receiving the inheritance. This asset allocation is shifting from bonds to stocks and cryptocurrency. Massive, huge tides. A significant portion of this will come from private equity and private debt, at least $12 trillion.
So, consider this as huge purchasing power. And of course, I think that explains why we're seeing huge, huge numbers above expectations. I mean, amazing numbers. The third thing that is happening in this cycle that hasn't happened in previous ones is digital asset treasuries. Are you wondering what role they can play?
Well, first of all, DAT is a friend of cryptocurrency in a bull market. Good? In this bear market, people have been asking, do DATs make sense? By the way, Bitmain is a digital asset treasury. And that's because in this bear market, only four digital asset treasuries are trading above their net asset value.
How about including Bitmain here? But I think that in the next "bull " market all these DATs will recover. And they will start buying cryptocurrency. In a bull market, this means they will support the underlying blockchain. Why is that? Because they are removing the offer from the market. Today, DAT Ethereum owns 7% of the cryptocurrency supply.
Bitcoin is owned by...DAT Bitcoin is owned by 6.5%. DAT Solana—3 %. But look at Hyperliquid. I mean, it's a very successful chain and project, but part of that is because Hyperliquid DAT owns 14% of the supply. When you take an offer off the market and then a bull market comes along , you know what?
The price will increase significantly more. And Ethereum DAT owns the largest share of the “big three.” 7% of the offer. This, you know, didn't exist during the last bull market. That's why, if you're thinking about the upside potential of ETH, I think you're underestimating how much it can jump. The biggest pile of money in America is starting to change hands.
Cerulli Associates estimates that about $124 trillion in U.S. household wealth will pass between generations by 2048 , with about $105 trillion going to heirs. Millennials are the largest group of recipients with a share of about $46 trillion. And the two sides of this transfer own cryptocurrency with very different frequencies.
A Gemini survey found that 49% of millennials in the US own one or have owned one in the past. Whereas a 2026 Motley Fool Money survey found that among baby boomers, the figure is only 7%. Cerulli's own numbers have their own catch. About $62 trillion of this amount comes from the richest 2% of households.
Therefore, it will happen slowly and unevenly. The second group of buyers is already on the market. As of October 11, Bitmain held 6,028,946 ether, about 4.9% of the total in circulation, and over 5 million of them were staked. Regarding Bitcoin, CoinStats counted 173 public companies that held approximately 1.3 million Bitcoins as of October 8 .
Keep one thing in mind while you listen . Tom Lee heads Bitmain, and much of its ether was purchased at a price higher than what ether was trading at in mid-October. One of Dropstab's estimates put the company's unrealized loss at approximately $4.5 billion. Keep that in mind when you hear his predictions about ether later in this video .
Raul Pal measures fear through distance, that is, how much prices have deviated from their long-term trend, expressed in standard deviations. Imagine a rubber band pulled from the middle. A two- standard deviation movement is the kind of stretch that, according to the Gaussian curve, should only occur a few percent of the time.
The year 2026 gave him a lot of material for measurements. Bitcoin fell by about 22% in the first quarter and another 14% in the second. This is the third consecutive loss-making quarter, according to CoinGlass data. Meanwhile, AI investments have driven the Nasdaq to new records, including an all-time closing high on October 6.
Cryptocurrency owners spent most of 2026 watching someone else's bull market. So how does a person whose job is to measure fear react to a year like this? So, massive implementation trends await us ahead. The debt needs to be refinanced, and we just experienced a two standard deviation sell-off. So we kind of know what to expect.
We know what happens next. We know that agents are leaving, the financial system is leaving. All this is already happening. They will have to deal with the currency. We've already had our sale. So to me it looks like a good risk-reward ratio. And how I deal with it : we've never reached two standard deviations above what Bitcoin has.
But we reached about one and a half deviations into the oversold zone. So I just accumulate assets during these sales to multiply my profits. That's all I did: I bought in June and July, and also in January-February, just bought more and held on because I believe the cycle will continue. I think it will be a supercycle.
I believe this was a correction within the cycle, and we still have a lot ahead of us. In mid-October, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis reported over 138 million payments made via X402, a machine-to-machine payment standard, on Coinbase's Base network in the third quarter of 2026. More than 87% of the payments they studied were between one hundredth of a cent and 10 cents.
Card networks cannot process such small payments profitably. Blockchain can. Chainalysis openly admits that it cannot completely separate real commerce from developers testing their code. So take this as an early warning. But in mid-2025, this activity was barely noticeable. Raul Pal takes this trend much further.
And we also had another thing—new users. New users are agents. Early days. Don't forget, Open Claw only came out in, well, November? And now it is believed that there are more agents than human economic subjects. Well, not economic agents, but simply agents , more than people. Most of the internet traffic is now agency-based.
This is incredible. This happened in a very short period of time. Agents use more tokens than humans. And as agents start to scale, and everyone as we know is building this, you'll definitely hear about it in the next two days here, it's going to change everything. And why this changes everything—we always look at markets in terms of total market size, TAM.
All we have ever known in our entire history is one number: the population of the Earth. With 8.5 billion people, we knew that with the internet, when you get to 5 or 6 billion, there's an S- curve and everything slows down. This has changed. Endless economic entities appear. Therefore, if there are many economic entities, then TAM (total market volume) tends to infinity.
And this is an extraordinary thing. And given the speed at which this is happening, we don't even know how many agents are there. Maybe there are a billion of them now. Don't forget , we're all used to Metcalfe's Law. We understand these exponents to some extent. So we project in our heads: yes, maybe next year there will be 5 billion.
But we are in the conditions of Metcalfe's law squared. So in that case, maybe by next year there will be 25 billion agents. And if they use wallets, and a certain percentage of them use wallets , maybe 1%. That's 250 million new people in the crypto space. This is a 25% increase in the total number of wallets.
I don't even know these numbers and I can't guess them because I don't understand Reed's law either. None of us understand. So, listen, this is very serious. And for me, this graph, which I have been using for a long time, is still relevant: to what extent will the capitalization of all this reach? We now have approximately $2.5 trillion.
Um , and if you just follow the logarithmic regression channel, the Metcalfe law curve of cryptocurrency adoption, then maybe in a few years, assuming we finally get the “bull” market we’ve been so desperately waiting for, we’ll reach 10 trillion. Okay, that's quite logical: a 5 or 4- fold increase from current figures.
But it does indicate that by 2035 we will reach a hundred trillion dollars, somehow. This means that we will create $97.5 trillion in wealth in this area , which is a staggering amount. Before you hear Tom Lee's goals, here's what Ethereum already has. At the end of September, there were about $146 billion in stablecoins on Ethereum.
According to DeFi Llama, this is almost half of all stablecoins in the world. Roughly a third of all ether, about 40 million coins, was locked in staking according to Bitwise data for the second quarter, generating profits instead of just sitting around on exchanges. Some more context: the targets in this clip are framed around the stock price of Bitmain, a company led by Tom Lee.
So listen to the numbers for Ethereum and ask yourself what Ethereum needs to become to justify them. So, the last point I want to emphasize: Let's say you are bullish on ETH, and I think you should be. You should be optimistic about L1 networks. I recently had dinner in Taiwan with people I met 10 years ago when I was just starting to learn about Bitcoin.
Imagine, 10 years ago, Bitcoin was worth less than a thousand, and today Bitcoin is worth 80,000. So when I had dinner with venture capitalists, I expected them to be living on private jets, because if Bitcoin gave an 80x return , their investment could have given a hundred or a thousandx more. But here's what they said.
They said their venture profits were good, but they regretted not just buying Bitcoin. Of course? And that's exactly what I'm telling you now. You want to have the maximum share of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even Solana in this cycle. I believe that L1 networks accumulate a significant portion of the cost.
But there is a way to outperform L1 — and that is by buying digital asset treasuries. And Bitmain has every chance to outperform the market in this cycle. I want this point to be very clear. Here are three ways we do it. First: Bitmain maintains the maximum share of Ethereum in this bull market cycle.
Of course? Here is the price of Ethereum. It has been consolidated for five years. You know, the longer the accumulation period, the more powerful the breakthrough. The last time Ethereum consolidated, it grew 227 times. And before that—54 times. I think, considering tokenization, AI, everything I talked about, DApps, and capital transfer, the minimum will be 25x growth.
Of course? What does this mean for Bitmain's share price? The stock is now worth 26. And Bitmain is 90% correlated with Ethereum. So, if Ethereum hits 22,000, which I believe is the lower target, Bitmain's stock price will go from 26 to 300–500. This is a colossal movement. If Ethereum reaches 62,000, Bitmain's stock price will be between 1,200 and 1,500.
Calculate these targets. At a price of around $2,400, a 25x move puts ETH near the 60,000 mark, which coincides with the upper limit of Tom Lee's forecast. His lower target of 22,000 is closer to 9x growth. With 122 million ETH in circulation, a price of 22,000 per coin yields about $2.7 trillion in market value, equal to the value of the entire crypto market in mid-October.
At 62,000, that's about 7.6 trillion, about a quarter of the value of all gold above ground, according to the World Gold Council and a mid- October gold price of about $4,190 an ounce. Raul Pal's $100 trillion by 2035 figure is about 35 times the size of the entire crypto market as of mid- October. None of them rely solely on hope.
Both are betting on three similar flows: the transition of Wall Street assets to blockchain, a generation inheriting money and more willing to invest it in crypto, and software agents who need a way to pay each other. None of this guarantees a direct path to the top. When Tom Lee said that Bitmain would stop buying at 5% of the supply, ETH fell by almost 5% and Bitmain shares sank by about 6%.
So, one of the most consistent buyers of the bear market is stepping aside. In the same speech in Singapore, Raul Pal said that he did not expect a rapid rise yet, since liquidity—the amount of money moving through the financial system —had not yet reached the level of a full-fledged “ bull” market at the time of his speech.
And the October capital outflow from the ETH ETF showed that many investors are heading for the exit. But look what was built while Bitcoin spent most of 2026 below its start-of-year price. A company that settles US stock trades has launched real-time tokenized trading. The world's largest asset manager has launched an Ethereum-based treasury fund.
Bitmain alone has locked up almost 5% of all ether, and public companies hold about 6% of all bitcoins. And the machines began paying each other fractions of a cent in a market that most people had already written off . If you want to follow this development and know when the money starts flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum, I cover it daily on the “Crypto Nugget Show ”—my free 5-minute daily newsletter. No " water", no panic, only important signals directly to your inbox. . Well, .
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