저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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트럼프의 DC 치안 강화(방위군·경찰 통제, 노숙자 캠프 철거)와 러시아-우크라이나 협상(영토 교환, 8월 푸틴 회담) 발언을 정리. 대마 연방 규제 가능성, 중국 AI칩 수출 허가 수수료(20~30%) 언급을 소개. 발언자는 테슬라가 단기 상승했다고 자랑하며 자사 유료 리포트 홍보. 정책 해설 중심이며 개별 자산에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 드묾.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump just gave us a huge breakdown on a lot of different things. Russia, Ukraine, what's going on in DC, and I'm going to give you a complete breakdown of everything that you need to know. Quick note, Tesla rallying really nicely today. Up 4.75% at the time of this recording, pretty much straight up all day long.
And I have to say this was our call were trading in the low 330s and I said to course members, folks, we're going to 347 within the next 48 hours. We skyrocketed at the open and we've been up all day so far today. Couple reasons for that. That's really a topic for a different video. But if you want those alpha reports, make sure you join at meet.com.
Use coupon code JHole in honor of Jackson Hole coming up. Okay. So, what did Donald Trump just say? Russia, Ukraine, DC, uh, as well as some comments on marijuana, which could potentially be a hit for marijuana stocks. Not in the way, uh, you would potentially think. Uh, well, let's go through all of it.
So, uh, first, Donald Trump, uh, talks about rescuing the nation's capital. Basically, liberation day in DC. We already talked about the deploying of the National Guard. His reason for that is he says the DC murder rate is higher than that of Bogota, Colombia or Mexico City. Bogota has a murder rate of about 14 per 100,000.
Mexico City only about eight per 100,000 of course when I say only obviously eight is still a lot of dead people but anyway DC in 2024 at 27.3 which is more than three times as much as Mexico City and nearly double Bogotaa's uh rate. Now, Donald Trump cited 41 out of 100,000. I think what they're doing is they're extrapolating the first half of 2025.
Uh, and then doubling it. Uh, and that's how they're getting to their 41 out of 100,000. Donald Trump says, "We're doing emergency curfews. We're getting rid of the slums. We are going to get rid of the homeless situation. We are declaring a public safety emergency. And Pam Bondi is going to take over the Metropolitan Police Department." Uh Donald Trump says that America shouldn't be dirty, graffitied, and people should not get mugged and certainly not in the nation's capital.
He also says that we should have fixed potholes, medians, roads. We are going to do it and we're going to do it right and we're going to do it quickly. We're not going to let permits get in the way. We are going to do it. Now, this is very uh Trumpy and there are a few things to know here. One, uh consider countries like Japan, for example.
I just visited Japan for 10 days. I have to say for the lack of trash cans that they have in public, what a clean country. I mean, the ground is clean. The railings are clean. There's hand sanitizer filled everywhere. Not like empty sanitizer stations. Like, there's actually hand sanitizer everywhere.
It's very, very clean. Every escalator staircase feels very clean. Soon as we get back to Los Angeles, I've got my seven and nine year olds going, "Oh my gosh, these escalators are gross." Going into LA, uh, LAX, Los Angeles International Airport, it's like, "Welcome to America." It's all like 1970s yellow and gross and and they don't really want to touch it and hand sanitizer stations are empty.
But anyway, this is where Donald Trump is saying, "Hey, we we want to beautify America's capital. We don't want dirty. We don't want graffiti. We want uh actual clean and safe capital. I'm actually a big fan of that. I'm a big fan of investing into making our country beautiful. It's the greatest country in the world and should be.
Now, when it comes to this talk about marijuana, I what was really interesting here is Donald Trump in questioning was asked about, hey, uh, you know, what's your take on potential marijuana restrictions on a federal basis? Because remember there's been so much talk about legal marijuana and also so much action by states on legal marijuana.
And Donald Trump says, you know, I've heard great things uh great things about medical, other things not so much. This is somewhat implying that there could be some changes coming for uh marijuana in terms of recreational use for marijuana. that is potentially legalizing federally marijuana for medical purposes but not for recreational purposes and potentially having more restrictions for recreational p purposes which could have some impacts for some of those marijuana stocks.
Something to pay attention to and this is a clear signal from the Trump administration here. Now something else to know about Donald Trump when it comes to permits. Uh in the Wall Street Journal actually had a great uh article on this uh on Donald Trump and state capitalism. uh they said that Donald Trump really runs uh the United States, kind of much like China runs China.
Uh and as much as everybody kind of thought over history that China would end up trying to become like the United States in the future, whereas China becomes sort of a free market capitalistic country. Instead, it looks like China is well, the United States is more modeling after China uh by, for example, demanding the resignation of the Intel CEO, demanding golden shares, uh such as in the Nepon Steel takeover, uh demanding that Donald Trump is able to direct 1.5 trillion, quote unquote, countries dispute how much of this is actually going to get invested, but Donald Trump demands the right to direct where those investments are going to go.
And so they call this sort of this hybrid between socialism and capitalism. And really it it's a way of blowing past sort of some of that regulation and lawyerliness, uh, say just saw Donald Trump say. Donald Trump just said, "Hey, like we're not going to, you know, worry about some designer worried about permits for fixing the medians.
We're just going to fix it. We're going to do it right and we're just going to do it." Uh and in in fairness like that is one of the things that has become very annoying in the United States. The lawyerliness that slows or blocks down building or housing construction or actually advancing the country.
It's one of the reasons why China is able to advance so quickly when it comes to building. The problem with this is when a state dictates building, you tend to lessen growth. Uh, for example, uh, when China directed real estate investments, what happened? You ended up with a massive real estate crash.
When China directed manufacturing investments, what happened? You ended up with a massive manufacturing crash because you oversupplied and you did so poorly. Uh, and you didn't let the free market guide investments. Instead, you directed uh, in an inefficient manner capital allocation which led to slower growth or a crash.
If you look at other sort of crony policy states, you could look at uh countries like Brazil, Russia or France, all of them experiencing significantly slower growth over the long term than the United States where we generally let the free market dictate uh investments. This is why government directed initiatives like the Foxcon facility or the Tesla Buffalo solar facility uh have all sort of failed in uh you know state directed investment uh for actually growing or creating growth.
This is likely because the free market is generally a much better allocator. You know, look, for example, at if we had a free market for cars, which we don't because we've got auto unions and manufacturers that really desire protectionist policies like tariffs and that, uh, we probably would all have substantially more vehicle choice and substantially cheaper vehicle choice, which I personally sort of compare to like the potential that we would all be getting annual stimulus checks if it weren't for car tariffs or car restrictions.
This is a complicated argument. It's basically the argument that cars would be so much cheaper if we just allowed the free market to regulate cars that it would be much like every American family getting an extra $2,000 a year uh because they wouldn't be spending all of this wasteful money on expensive cars because we'd have a lot more choice.
That's when the free market dictates, right? But unions and protectionists policies which other countries do as well like the EU or even countries within the European Union or otherwise uh we have more expensive vehicles as a result. But anyway, Donald Trump going back to sort of this uh this idea of sort of bulldozing some of these lawyerly policies.
Uh again makes it clear that Pam Bondi is going to take control of the Metropolitan Police Department. He says we will bring in the military if needed. This is a pretty uh blunt statement there. He also says we're going to be removing homeless camp encampments. We are going to make this one of the safest places in the country and we will do this to other cities as well if we need to.
Uh he directly mentioned Chicago as one. Uh directly mentioned obviously LA which has already been done. Uh and we'll also be looking at New York City, which is also uh a direct sort of heads up and warning. Though he does say this in a way of, hey, hopefully these cities will start regulating themselves and then we won't need to.
Now, regarding Russia and uh his meeting with Putin, Donald Trump says he's going to speak with the European delegations as well as Zalinski before going into the m meeting with Putin, but that this will be a meeting with Putin alone and not with Sinsky. So that way Trump can go into the meeting with everybody's information and then determine whether or not a deal can be made.
Donald Trump does say that there's going to be a lot of land swapping going on, which will be good for Ukraine, but also bad for Ukraine, but it'll also be good for Russia and also bad for Russia. Donald Trump wants to get Russia to be focused on positive trade versus just a wartime economy, and he thinks he can negotiate with that uh sort of thesis at least.
Uh he says there will be land swapping though and we're going to try to get some prime property back or land back for Ukraine given that Ukraine has lost so much land. It seems like Donald Trump is pretty convinced that uh Ukraine has already lost land so they may as well just kind of like negotiate some of it back.
Uh this is a current map of where we stand. You could see these eastern regions here. Uh this Crimea had already been taken. Uh but uh you could see this spread here towards the nepro uh by Russia and uh Russia pretty much wants all of this and of course Zinsky wants to give up zero of it. So finding that compromise is going to be a challenge and Donald Trump says that he's going to work on exactly that.
Europeans are somewhat freaking out that Donald Trump is going to make a deal without them. Uh and this is why they are stressing meeting Donald Trump first before that Friday meeting between Trump and uh Putin on uh in Alaska. And uh Europe also says that their red lines include stressing that a ceasefire must be the first step in the deal and that any territorial exchanges must be reciprocal based on current front lines and a long-term security guarantee.
So in other words, uh even the Europeans are recognizing that some form of territory is probably going to be lost from Ukraine, but we need security guarantees to be a part of this. Those have been a big issue for Russia. Russia doesn't want security guarantees because Russia doesn't want Ukraine to get guarantees that basically imply Ukraine is part of NATO, right?
Because if you give if NATO gives Ukraine a security guarantee, you may as well just say NATO is part or Ukraine is part of NATO, which obviously is a red line for Russia. So this creates a lot of complexity here. Now, Donald Trump also mentioned that uh regarding the China trade deal, stay tuned. There will be uh progress on the China trade deal soon.
Uh there is a self-imposed deadline by Trump tonight to get a deal with China. We don't know if that'll actually happen tonight. Donald Trump did miss his self-imposed secondary sanction deadline with Russia in lie of obviously this meeting now happening on Friday. As far as chips, uh he says that there could even be some form of 20 to 30% uh sort of export licensing fees for Blackwell or at least unenhanced versions of Blackwell in the future, which is really interesting because it's a way of saying that maybe we will let uh companies like Nvidia and AMD export their more advanced chips, although still not the most advanced chips, to countries like China.
Again, a lot of people see these export fees like that 15% export fee that AMD and Nvidia have currently agreed to for the watered down older generation chips like the H20s uh as an extortion fee. And they kind of see this as Donald Trump extorting American companies. Uh that's a 15% tax on the H20 from Nvidia to China and 15% tax on the MI308 from AMD to China.
Uh, you kind of have to give Trump credit though here. Trump will do anything to make a buck for the country, which is great in the near term. We don't know what the longer term implications of that are going to be. But for now, that seems to be an opportunity for Nvidia and AMD to increase their revenue and Trump to increase his revenue.
Uh, then again, other people say this is just arming China and China is our enemy and we shouldn't be arming them. So, you kind of have arguments on both sides of this. But again, this is Donald Trump's uh not free market lzair style, but rather Donald Trump's sort of more crony style directament of how things are going to go and nobody knows what the implications of that are going to be in the longer term, but it is interesting.
So, uh we'll see. So, that gives you an overview here of everything. Remember, use coupon code jhole meet.com. get that alpha report again. Tesla's killing it today, which is a great call in the alpha report. Literally called in the pre-market that it was heading towards this line within the next 48 hours.
Look at that. That was literally my number one call. We had four calls this morning. You can see call 2, three, and four in the alpha report this morning. Uh, one of them, by the way, I'll give you a little hint here, was watch for the cues to fall at open and then bounce. And look at literally what's happening right now.
You had a little fall at the open and bounce throughout the rest of the day here. So, if you want these calls, make sure you get those in the uh opens. Use coupon code jhole to get lifetime access at meet.
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