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David L real quick a Reddit user was considering making an iOS widget similar to what you are seeing on the screen to let you know your super charging status so let them know would you actually want something like that here we have an update on Tesla's FSD beta specifically in that one part of downtown Toronto where the FSD beta to date has been geofenced AKA you can't use it there Elon said that might be unlocked finally with the Dot 3 release and he was kind enough to give us an estimated timeline for that release of next week if you go back to March of this year it's when Elon said Toronto street cars are not yet handled well by FSD if you're not familiar this is a TTC or a Toronto Transit street car they travel on Rails in the middle of the road operate differently than regular Vehicles frequently stopping to let passengers off and to let others in again in in the middle of the road and here's a quick clip of how you'll know if FSD is geofenced in your area you realize that there's no wheel so you can't actually engage FSD but even if you try to do it so if I double top it this one immediately reject me and then it says that FSD self-driving is not available at the current location so that geofence in downtown Toronto could be removed as soon as next week next up we had this tweet 10 days ago from the man the legend Leo koguan saying be extra cautious please catch the sharp knives with your cash not margin borrowing because more storms coming with scary looking nice falling down from dark clouds Tesla is having a PE ratio compression that can only be solved by a buyback and or by two times earnings increase scroll down the touch and we find 10 days later today Elon said noted now of course we know that tweet doesn't have to mean anything Elon isn't committing to a buyback or a 2x earnings increase however we do know that Elon does like to hint at things and he usually uses Twitter to do so and who knows what exactly Elon was referring to with that response was it the buyback was it the earnings increase was it both and of course for all we know he could have been responding to the be extra cautious in general or more storms are coming so I wouldn't make too much of this for now but it's definitely something to note and just real quick for whatever it's worth my personal opinion on a Tesla stock buyback sure if Tesla wanted to take maybe up to a billion dollars and do that to appease this cohort of shareholders that's fine personally though I would rather they have a big war chest and obviously deploy that Capital to grow the company I know they can't really spend any faster Elon said they're spending as fast as they can without wasting money but if we do have a pretty severe recession in 2023 and given all of the macro War uncertainty right now I personally don't mind Tesla having a big war chest but at the same time if test someone wanted to take you know maybe five percent of the cash it has roughly 20 billion that would be about one billion dollars for a buyback especially given where the stock price is at now it would be a wise time to do that so I'd of course have no real problem with that but for people calling for 5 billion and above personally I wouldn't really love to see it but not the end of the world either way and again just to give you some context for this PE compression that you hear people talking about well here it is in graph form so this goes back to July 2020.
as you can see from this whole range it was hovering you know between 600 to 1200 when it comes to the p e ratio and since that time fast forward to today it's been on a steady decline and currently sits around 78. my reason for showing you this though is if you bought Tesla stock in this range over here when the p e ratio was over 600 you should absolutely love buying it when it's down here now again I do not think that the p e ratio is ever going to to go back to the Thousand range I think those days are gone and that door is closed and with that said if you just look at the bottom two numbers here in q1 and Q2 of this year from a gap perspective Tesla has done a dollar and sixty cents in earnings per share now the fiscal year 2022 EPS estimates are hovering around four so from that standpoint Tesla has a forward PE of 55.
if you put that on top of the estimated growth rate of about 50 percent that would give us a peg of around one indicating Tesla is fairly or you could argue undervalued now I've said it before but I'm a huge proponent of cultivating gratitude and trying to keep perspective in life enjoying the little things like watching a sunset laughing with friends or family enjoying a coffee and quiet in the morning hear me on this if you've been getting your coffee from a big box retail store like I did for too long I would urge you to Branch out and check out Trade coffee and yes trade sponsors the channel but you guys know I only talk about stuff that I use and stand behind trade makes getting high quality pure delicious coffee convenient and easy but the best part for me is knowing that I'm doing a little bit to support families and small businesses doing things the right way we've also used trade subscription service so we can get new coffee every month we usually order ground coffee for our Chemex but if we wanted beans we could switch it up anytime with just a few clicks this month we got this bag from Latin America this canopy coffee with notes of dark chocolate and caramel so if you want to brew quite possibly the best cup of coffee you've ever made at home I would encourage you to check out Trade coffee right now trade is offering our audience thirty dollars off your subscription and free shipping at drinktrade.com electrified that's drink trade dot com slash electrified for thirty dollars off so it seems like a good time to transition to this we got the CPI data this morning and it came in hotter than expected it was not good initially the market started to panic and now everything was red but fast forward to at least right now at the time of recording and the Market's actually green just focusing on the data though the Federal Reserve says it focuses on this data that would be the core CPI which year over year up 6.6 percent setting a new high in this business cycle that 6.6 reading year over year came in above the consensus estimate of 6.5 I think it's important to point out a few things so this core reading is the highest since 1982 but from a monthly basis it came in at point six percent month over month again above expectations of 0.5 but the thing many economists are actually worried about is this inflation reading shows us that inflation really is broadening meaning we can't really blame this on one thing like oil gas prices it's really kind of across the board now there are some indexes that did decline as you can see highlighted in blue but there are also still many that are still increasing highlighted in pink the headline number also came in above expectations at 8.2 percent the expectation was 8.1 percent I want to show you this though a lot of people were thinking well once we get about a year into inflation and the year-over-year numbers have a higher denominator well we'll start to see the inflation rates coming down but so far we're not really seeing that like we thought this chart is the United States inflation rate year over year and the yellow line is the three percent Mark basically showing us where inflation is higher than the FED would want it so really dating back to March 1st 2021 we've had inflation higher than the FED wants it so we're well over a year into this higher inflation environment and the year over year numbers are still high so that's of course not good right now the markets are expecting a 97 chance that we get a 75 basis point rate hike at the November meeting that would take us up to a Fed funds rate of four percent and if you go out to the December meeting we now have a 57 chance of another 75 basis point rate hike that would take us to a Fed funds rate of 4.75 and bringing us back to Tesla stock we are now currently flirting with these summer lows that we experienced last year and this is partially why there are some people out there saying if Tesla breaks the 205 the 215 range it could then fall down and retest these 180 levels like we saw last summer looking at the treasury yield curve everything from the sixth month to the seven year is actually inverted or higher than the 10-year yield now the last Domino to fall if you will is the three month so if that goes a above the 10-year yield you could see the bond markets and the credit markets start to panic a little bit more than they already have and the last thing I'll say about this is you have to remember that these interest rate hikes usually take between 6 to 12 months to actually work their way through the economy and to have their final impact so if you just look at something like mortgage rates if you go back to October 14th exactly one year ago the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was three percent fast forward to today and they're already up around 6.7 percent and keep in mind they are likely to keep going higher but if you just compare two 250 000 homes only changing the APR you can see that's about a 500 difference in monthly payment and you can see the total interest that you would pay over the course of that 30-year loan so if you start putting these pieces together buying a home is becoming more expensive meaning more people are going to have to rent meaning the cost of the that rent is going to go up because the supply and demand balance shifts and well guess what that is basically 30 percent of the CPI reading so all of this to say we know that the stock market is forward looking so it's looking 6 to 12 months out and trying to price in what the environment will look like then so how much of that pain next year has the market priced in is anybody's guess so I'm not at all trying to predict the future I'm just saying it seems likely that from an economic standpoint there's still more pain ahead for these interest rate hikes to work their way through the economy so I'm just trying to have a cash balance where I can to be ready and have some dry powder for whenever the market decides to price that pain in if it hasn't already alright shifting back to EVS it looks like that concept that Sony developed in partnership with Honda is going to become an actual product sometime around 2026.
this new EB launch from Honda and Sony will Target the United States Market first pre-orders should open in 2025 with deliveries in 2026. so who knows if the actual car will look anything like the vision s prototypes we saw from Sony before but here's a picture of that interior to give you an idea we don't know much about the car but Sony has said they're building an open Community for other automotive industry Partners to create new Mobility entertainment this initial model with Honda will be a premium offering no surprise Reuters is also saying that Sony is targeting recurring revenue from entertainment and other services that would be billed monthly and their vision for this upcoming car is to function almost like a rolling smartphone the word on the street is this EV will be manufactured at a Honda plant in Ohio next up I've seen a few different reports on this but it looks like Tesla's pure Vision has gone Global into parts of Europe and of course also now China as well as they've updated its autopilot page removing the ultrasonic sensors moving to Pure Vision here we have a chart shared by berlinergy on Twitter sharing Kelly Blue Book data for average transaction prices so he was highlighting Tesla's pricing power if you look at the year over year percent change you can see Tesla's pricing up 16 percent year over year the highest on this table and it's not really that close I just think it's really impressive the demand Tesla still has with atps hovering around seventy thousand dollars up ten thousand dollars on average from the same time last year especially when you consider how many people out there are still skeptical of EVS or outright against them you know that's not going to stay the theme forever so when does that narrative change is anybody's guess but impressive stuff so far from Tesla next up today Lucid has revealed its biggest software update to date Lucid ux 2.0 I won't read through all of the updates you can pause the screen and read if you like but things like an instant on display when you start up the car better navigation better range predictions more functionality for Alexa and better browsing of third-party apps there are also some updates for lucid's dream Drive some changes to the headlight functionality and vehicle entry and exit next up we have VW taking a pretty big stake in a Chinese robotics or chip company Horizon robotics not like Optimus not yet at least but VW set to spend about 2.3 billion dollars on a 60 stake in this company to move forward its autonomous driving in China this joint venture with Horizon robotics is not a done deal but it should be completed next year as you can see VW has been taking stakes in many different companies now sure I mean hire the best of the best I get it but this is just one of those things that again sets Tesla apart because it has created the best of the best in-house basically taking stakes in itself with that said though Horizon robotics is a relatively young company only seven years old and already it's signed Supply agreements with more than 20 car companies covering 70 different models here we have a fun one if you've been watching the channel the last few weeks you will have definitely heard me talk about this so lawmakers are expected to be able to reach an agreement without having to send the entire inflation reduction act back to Congress to revise it now this deal there's really not a lot of detail given but they're trying to find a way to classify European automakers in a similar way as United States one so that built in North America Clause doesn't exclude all of those European automakers from getting the EV tax credit in the United States Market we know the model y was the best selling car in Germany in September so EU lawmakers are saying that would not have been possible without the undiscriminatory EU subsidy while EU electric cars do not get a similar subsidy in the US which is discrimination that we want to address that's part of why I've been saying the last few weeks it's been pretty clear to me that something like this was coming and this gets us closer to that point last up for today we got a blog post from Redwood materials basically the Argonne National Laboratory under the department of energy has been testing some of redwood's cathode materials to see if they're going to be on par with those that aren't created from a recycled process the full blog will be linked below but fast forwarding to the results argon concluded pristine performance can readily be obtained from redwood's recycled metal sulfates and will have higher capacity and a lower direct internal resistance so this is a major stamp of approval don't forget check out Trade coffee linked below take advantage of that discount n my patreon supporters foreign
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