저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 버크셔 해서웨이의 코탁 마힌드라 은행 지분 인수 가능성이 보도됐으나 당사자 확인은 없음. [보도 내용] 소식통 기반 보도로, 버크셔가 코탁 은행 지분 인수를 검토 중이라는 내용. 인수 방식은 두 가지: (1) 우다이 코탁 회장의 10% 지분 블록딜, (2) 은행 대상 우선주 배정(증자). [규모] 블록딜 시 약 35억 달러, 우선배정 시 최대 60억 달러로 제시. 은행 시가총액은 약 320억 달러 수준. [배경] 인도중앙은행 규정상 코탁 회장은 12월 31일까지 지분을 30%에서 20%로 낮춰야 함. [시장 반응] 보도 직후 코탁 은행 주가 약 4.5~6% 상승. [당사자 반응] 코탁 은행은 'no comment', 버크셔는 응답 없음. 기자는 추측성 정보임을 반복 강조. [패널 의견] 버크셔의 해외 투자는 통상 대형 거래보다 소규모·산업 중심이었으며, 페이텀 투자는 기술주 성격이라 버크셔의 편안한 영역 밖이라는 평가. [투자자 관점] 크리슈나(SBI캡): 추측 단계라 성급한 대응은 금물, 펀더멘털은 강하나 수익성 지표에 압박 가능성. [쿠날 샤 발언] 지분 축소 물량 해소 시 주가 부담 완화, 코탁은 예금기반·자본여력이 충분해 성장 여건 양호, 소식 확인 시 호재. [리스크] 보도 미확인, 블록딜 시 공급 부담, 규제 시한 압박. [결론 재확인] 현 시점은 루머 단계이며 확인 전까지 판단 유보가 적절.
다듬은 글
We already told you about the big corporate news that our colleague Nimsha got, and she is here with us now. This is important news regarding Kotak Mahindra Bank. Please, Nimsho. What did you find out? So, my sources have learned that there is a high probability that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is in talks to buy a stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank.
There are now two ways or two possibilities by which they can acquire a stake. The first is possibly buying out Uday Kotak's 10 percent stake, which he must reduce by December 31 anyway . This is one of the possibilities. Another possibility is that there could also be a preferential share offering for Berkshire Hathaway, meaning the funds would go directly to the bank and likely be used for development.
So, these are the two possibilities that, as far as I understand from the sources, are being discussed. I want to emphasize the caveat once again. This is very price-sensitive information. This could very well happen. So all this information is obtained from sources. We don't have confirmation from either party yet, but we have reached out to both parties.
So I'll come back to this. I was told that in the case of a direct buyout of Uday Kotak's 10% stake, the deal could be worth around $3.5 billion. Remember that Kotak Mahindra Bank's current market capitalization is approaching $32 billion. So, excluding the premium, it's $3.2 billion. In the case of preferential placement, as I was told, the amount could reach even $6 billion.
So, I was given a range of $3.5 billion to $6 billion— that's what Warren Buffett could invest if he really decided to invest in Kotak Mahindra Bank. As of now, we all know that by December 31, Uday Kotak has to reduce his stake from 30% to 20% as per Reserve Bank of India norms, which is likely pushing for a possible deal in Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Official response from Kotak Mahindra Bank—no comment; They don't want to comment at all, whether it's speculation or something else, so they only have one phrase: "no comment" to this request from CNBC TV18. We have also reached out to Berkshire Hathaway over the past day and a half, but there has been no official response from them.
We also were unable to speak with Warren Buffett's secretary. So there is no answer from Warren Buffett yet. So, right now we only have an official comment, or rather lack thereof, from Kotak Mahindra Bank, and no response from Berkshire Hathaway. So this is just one possibility. OK. I just want to confirm everything Nimsh said.
We've heard that Berkshire Hathaway is considering such an option. It is likely that we have approached Kotak Mahindra. They replied that they would not comment. We have reached out to Berkshire Hathaway repeatedly by email and phone but have not received any response. I want all investors to see: Kotak shares are up 4.5%, now up 5%, but we want to emphasize that this is just a guess.
We reached out to both sides. We have not received any confirmation from them. We received a refusal to comment from one of the parties. So keep that in mind. Here's how we approached covering this news. We tried to conduct the most thorough check possible. In fact, adding to what I said earlier: this is just one possibility that Berkshire is considering buying a stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Also, according to my sources, two of the largest existing shareholders of Kotak Mahindra Bank have already approached their boards for approvals in case of a large block sale of Uday Kotak's personal stake by December 31. I was informed that one of the big investors has already received approval for $1.5 billion if they actually have to invest.
Besides, this is just one possibility—buying a stake in Berkshire; a block deal is also possible. In that case, as far as I understand, the two large shareholders have already contacted their boards and are holding permits at the ready, because after December 15, most large financial institutions go on vacation, and they want to be ready to invest funds if a large block sale takes place before December 31.
To put it into numbers: Mr. Kotak owns 30%, and the rules require him to reduce his stake to 20% by December 31. And that is why we are discussing this agreement. I'd like to hear Adrian's thoughts, because during the break he said that he's been following Berkshire Hathaway very closely. Now this is an instant reaction, but from the perspective of a Kotak Mahindra Bank investor.
What would be your opinion? So, today is December 7th, right? Yes. and you, you know, you're stressing to investors, you know, by the 14th they're probably already thinking about Christmas and stuff. So, we leave everything to the last minute. Yes. Um, and so certainly the transition from fear of imminent risk to a situation where there could potentially be multiple options is very important, with all the caveats that you've already made about, um, the lack of comment from Berkshire Hathaway or from the Cat.
This obviously makes sense from Berkshire Hathaway's perspective. They have a lot of investments in the financial sector, very large stakes in companies like Wells Fargo and so on. Um, and they also make investments abroad. Um, and so that would make sense, but I also think it's logical that FIS thought about this risk, but they might rather see it as an opportunity to invest at a slight discount because they need to do it.
So it will be very interesting. But today is December 7th, and the clock is ticking. Certainly. Um, and yeah, you know, the rule is that Mr. Kota doesn't really lose much if the date is moved past December 31st. Maybe he does n't want to, you know, break the regulator's rules, but even then the fine isn't very big .
It cannot open new branches, um, except with the permission of the regulator, and it cannot increase the salaries of the um, managing director until they comply with the rules. But in principle, a bank may not want to disobey, um, the regulator even for one day. So, um, the clock is literally ticking.
I mean, um, Eden, I just want to get your opinion, you know, what it was, since you follow this company very closely in the U.S., um, how does Berkshire typically operate outside of the U.S.? You know, we saw the first investment from Berkshire in August this year when they bought a very small stake in Paytm.
You know, this was the very first investment in their 72 years of investment history, their first foray into India. Do we get the impression that even on a global scale , if they start investing in a particular country, they are looking for a larger scale, and does that mean that a big transaction in the financial sector could happen in India?
Not necessarily outside the United States. In the United States, very large transactions. So the ones I can think of are BYD, which is, um, an electric car manufacturer in China. There were various Israeli investments that they made, many in the industrial sector . PTM is interesting because it's India, but it's also technology that hasn't necessarily been Berkshire Hathaway's comfort zone .
Good. So, I would say that looking at previous investments , they have tended to be more modest and more in the industrial sector outside of the United States. Good. Actually, it looks like we have two more guests joining us. Kunal Shah from Freecharge is also with us, and Krishna from SBI Cap. Krishna, please comment on this, as the stock has already risen by more than 5%.
Of course , we have not received any comments from either party, but if this happens, what should be the approach of a shareholder of Kotak Mahindra Bank? Yes, in many ways it's speculation and so on right now. So I wouldn't be too quick to react, but it remains a fundamentally very powerful franchise.
So I don't think there's anything to worry about once the technical pressure is gone due to the significant amount of supply on the market. Well, you can put aside the distractions and look at everything fundamentally; we generally think this is a very strong franchise in the making. But profitability indicators could obviously come under pressure.
Uh, yes, that would be my opinion, but information based on sources–it’s very difficult for a fundamental analyst to make a decision. Yes, I can imagine, the markets raised the price by 5%, this news is worth more, but everyone wants to be sure before deciding anything. But Kunal Sha, your comments?
It's still early, we've only received a refusal to comment from both sides, but what would you say about the shares themselves? No, so Kotak has not commented on this. But it was certainly being monitored as they try to reduce the ownership share from 30% to 20%. And I think if that happens, it will take some of the pressure off the stock.
Otherwise , I believe that Kotak is very well positioned in the current environment to benefit from the overall conditions in terms of increasing market share. They have also built a very strong deposit base and have sufficient capital on their balance sheet. So they are well prepared for growth. So, fundamentally, it stands on a solid foundation.
The only obstacle was share dilution, and perhaps, even if it's just speculation at the moment , if this news is confirmed , it could be positive for the stock. Oh yes, positive for the stock, which is now up 6%. Well, we'll have to stop there. Thank you , Krishnan and Kunal, for joining us. We will continue to try to get more opinions and continue our work.
We will also continue to try to contact Bakshari. Adrienne Mat, thank you very much for staying with us and for being with us on our birthday.
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