저자: CathySeifert · 외국인
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결론: 버핏은 코로나 공포에 매도하지 않겠다는 입장이며, 애널리스트는 버크셔에 대해 보유(Hold) 의견이다. 버핏의 발언: 코로나로 인한 시장 조정 시 버크셔가 매도하지 않을 것이며, 밸류에이션이 충분히 싸지면 매수도 가능하다고 언급. 버크셔 실적: 2019년 GEICO 보험 인수 실적이 약했고(보험 인수이익 약 40% 감소), 재보험 부문 손실준비금 추세도 악화되어 우려된다고 평가. 투자 포트폴리오: 아메리칸익스프레스, 애플, 뱅크오브아메리카, 델타항공 등이 주요 보유 종목. 신규 편입 종목은 바이오젠과 크로거. 투자 포트폴리오 자체는 성과가 좋다고 평가. 코로나 영향: 에너지·철도 자회사 및 소비재 기업들이 경기둔화 시 타격을 받을 수 있으나, 심각하게 훼손되지는 않을 것으로 전망. 현금 보유: 2019년 말 약 1,200억 달러 현금 보유. 인수 경쟁이 치열해 대형 딜이 어려우며, 약 50억 달러 자사주 매입 실시. 배당은 없음. 시장 밸류에이션이 조정되면 현금 활용 가능성 언급. 승계 계획: 아지트 젠(Ajit Jain)과 그레그 에이블(Greg Abel)로 승계 이슈는 해결된 것으로 평가. 주가 전망: 지난 10년간 버크셔 주가는 S&P500 대비 부진. 애널리스트는 적정가치 수준으로 보며, 올해 촉매를 찾기 어려워 보유 의견 유지.
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well berkshire hathaway CEO warren buffett isn't panicking about the impact of coronavirus of markets in the long term watch what he said on CNBC earlier today gonna be bad news unless you have to sell stocks now if you have to sell them for some reason that's what you're worse off if you don't have to sell them I mean somebody can come around and offer you a quote on your house today and it could be 2% less than they offered you yesterday but if you like the house it may doesn't make any difference does that mean Berkshire will be buying socks today it's well we certainly won't be selling and and yeah we made we could easily be buying something joining us now is Cathy Seaford research analyst at CFRA and Cathy when we just hear what Warren Buffett had to say just in terms of the type of pullback that we have seen from the coronavirus it could be viewed as a potential buying opportunity is someone who closely watches Berkshire Hathaway stock what's your reaction to that oh well it's interesting because obviously you don't want to see something like this happen a pandemic it's not good for anyone but in the in the case of the market pullback you know there are a lot of Berkshire Watchers who have been pining for Buffett to make an acquisition if valuations get cheap enough and the market pulls back enough ironically maybe Berkshire decides that now is the time to strike and they get that big acquisition that everyone's hoping that they'll get a Cathy I was reading through your notes just in terms of your reaction to Berkshire Hathaway's results and in it you said that you view that the results as troubling you also say that these results may pretend a longer term trend that that may be more challenging to address kind of unpack those comments for me and what exactly you mean by sure I was referencing the insurance results specifically a Geico the underwriting results at Geico were pretty weak underwriting profits fell like 40 percent for the full year and that sort of goes counter to what's going on among some of gyq GEICO's competitors Allstate and progressive and the fact that Geico was seeing some adverse claim trends in their key auto insurance line that was what I thought was very troubling I'm Archer author also writes a lot of very complicated large-scale reinsurance contracts and loss reserve trends in a lot of those lines also deteriorated in 2019 which was also counter to what we were seeing in the broader reinsurance market so the fact that both the reinsurance group and Geico had some trends that were running counter to what a lot of their peers were seeing was troubling to me how the warren buffett also released his annual letter to shareholders over the weekend obviously this is something that many people on Wall Street pay close attention to and in this he mentioned there are some of the top holdings in 2019 and they included amongst others American Express Apple Bank of America and Delta Airlines when you take a look at the list of his top holdings is there anything in there that maybe caught you by surprise or something that meaning made you think twice well I mean the Apple position he was sort of late to the game with Apple but the position has worked out for him I mean everything is down today but what I thought was interesting were the two new names that were added to the portfolio which was Biogen a biotech company and Kroger and I haven't checked my my quotes in the last hour but Kroger was one of a handful of stocks it was higher this morning it may be sort of the Buffett effect but I mean I really can't criticize any of his his investment decisions I mean the investment portfolio has done very well I mean some of these holdings are very long-term holdings and his cost basis is very low um he's got a presence in a lot of the large cap banks but you know I don't I don't have much criticism about the investment things I have more issues with what's going on in some of the operating subsidiaries and what exactly would that be well I meant specifically like in the insurance and gosh this is so I think there are some issues there he was talking about coronavirus it's going to be interesting to see what impact that has on the energy and railroad group they have a lot of consumer names and if there's a slowdown and overall economic activity they will likely be impacted I mean Berkshire in some respects is sort of a microcosm for the broader economy and as we see this coronavirus make it make its way through the global economy Berkshire will definitely be impacted I don't think irreparably or dramatically impacted but they'll definitely feel an impact from this cuz what do you think about Berkshire Hathaway's enormous cash that they have on hand they ended the year with a honey hundred and twenty billion dollars in cash Devon made a major acquisition in a couple of years wouldn't you expect to Berkshire to put some of its cash to use well I mean and I think that's one of the little parlor games that everyone sort of plays looking at Berkshire is when are they going to do a big deal and I think one of the things that's becoming an issue for them is that the market for acquisition candidates is it's a crowded field they compete with private equity names to get some of the good targets they tend to not want to leverage up when they make an acquisition so as a result they've sort of been left out in the cold the cash continues to pile up you could argue that they should be returning more of it to shareholders they did buy back about five billion dollars in stock in 2019 so I thought that was a good I mean that was a good use of cash they don't pay a dividend so they're not returning a lot of capital to shareholders and as I said at the opening I think if we see market valuations really pull back on the coronavirus we may see Berkshire put some of that cash to work I have the warm Buffett used part of his annual letter to really reassure Berkshire shareholders in the company's succession plans from your take you closely follow the company obviously are you confident in Berkshire succession plans I think the succession issue has been laid to rest a couple of years ago with Ajit John and Greg Abel being elevated to sort of handling the to the insurance and the non insurance sides of the company I kind of thought it was interesting that he sought to reinsure investors again but then he also made a of saying that there they're going to have a more visible role at the annual meeting and I think that should probably provide shareholders with some comfort personally and from my 20-some years following this company I actually think they've nailed down the succession issue they're not sharing if they're not disclosing it but I do I mean I do think it's an issue that's been resolved and Kathy what's interesting that has a lot of people talking to is just Berkshires performance over the last decade it's trailed the sp500 from where it's currently trading do you think Berkshire Hathaway's undervalued I have a hold on the stock I think it's fairly valued I struggled to find a catalyst for the shares last year was not a bad year for insurance stocks and Berkshire Hathaway really performed poorly and I didn't see a lot in the 2019 results to also give me a lot of confidence in a catalyst going forward so I've a hold on this year's Kathy Seifert of CFRA thanks so much for joining me today
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