저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 배터리 기술·자율주행 AI 칩 우위로 전기차 시장을 주도하며, ARK는 5년 기준 강세 시나리오 7000달러, 약세 시나리오 1500달러로 본다. 경쟁력 구조: 중국 전기차 시장 성장 가능성이 부각되며 테슬라가 선두이고, 타 자동차 업체들은 어려움에 처했다는 평가. 배터리 기술: 테슬라 원가 절감이 타 완성차보다 약 3년 앞서 있으며, 경쟁사는 전기차를 손해 보며 팔아야 할 수 있다. 4월 배터리 데이에서 맥스웰 기술 관련 추가 발표 기대. 자율주행·AI: 자체 AI 칩과 실주행 데이터 우위로 자율주행에서 승리할 가능성이 크며, 애플이 스마트폰 칩을 직접 설계해 이익을 가져간 사례와 유사하게 타 업체보다 약 3년 앞선다는 주장. 주가 전망: 5년 기본 시나리오 7000달러(약 10배), 약세(자율주행 실패·전기차 점유율 상실) 1500달러(약 2배, 연 15% 복리 수준). 이는 ARK의 최소 목표 수익률 기준이며, 포트폴리오당 10% 이상 보유 제한으로 고가 구간에서 차익 실현 중이다. 태양광 사업: 테슬라 태양광 사업은 ARK 수치 모델에 포함하지 않았으며 실패할 수도 있다고 보지만, 건축업자 연계 방식의 태양광 지붕은 유망하다고 평가. 코로나19 영향: 모델에 반영하지 않으며, 위기 시 혁신이 더 빨리 확산되고 중국 정부가 환경 정책으로 방향을 전환할 수 있어 테슬라에 좋은 시기라고 봄. 리스크: 자율주행 실패, 전기차 시장 점유율 상실, 태양광 사업 부진, 코로나19 단기 충격. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 장기 강세 유지, 주가 변동성은 활용 대상.
다듬은 글
so whether it's Tesla or Bitcoin our next guest has made a name for herself betting on big innovations Cathy wood CEO and CIO at arc invest which has now 11 billion dollars in assets under management joins us great to have you back - great to be here Jen so arc is famous really for this bullish call on Tesla we have talked about it before I mean you have done a podcast with Elon Musk you guys have been in this stock for a long time yes what was this week like for you I mean were you just like running around your house really excited or do you were you befuddled what did you think of it no no no no no we have been waiting for this
I think probably China meaning before coronavirus China really got analyst imaginations going you know wow they got a plant up and running and producing cars in one year China is going to be the biggest market maybe this notion our notion of 37 million electric vehicle sales in five years up from two million last year maybe there's something to that and I think test people are beginning to understand Tesla's in the lead and that other auto manufacturers are in trouble so I think they're putting two and two together and and really examining why is Tesla in the lead how could this be all these auto other auto manufacturers they have capital budgets and R&D budgets that run circles around Tesla's and so this cannot be well it is they have the best battery technology they have the best artificial intelligence chip for autonomous they have the most real-world why miles driven data which will means that they'll probably win in the autonomous space and they still are the only auto manufacturer with over-the-air software updates that can change performance my model 3 is better today than it was when I bought it in September of 18 and more and more people are buying these cars
and when you look at those pillars of the Tesla case and we've talked about this a number of times in the past which one to you and it sounds like right now it's about China but which one to you is the most important for the company over the long term when you think about the way that Ark has argued the stock or the company would evolve over the next 10-15 years is it the AI is that the the self-driving cars is there a part of that thesis that's most important in your a bigger picture for the company well there are two so one is the battery technology their costs are three years ahead in terms of cost declines of any other auto manufacturer so that means that most their auto manufacturers if they want to compete with tests Tesla will have to sell their electric vehicles at a loss while they are losing their internal combustion engine businesses so the battery technology and they're going to have battery day in April and we think they're going to tell us a lot more about Maxwell technologies which they bought and which they have really not said very much about so that's probably another advancement that will push them even further ahead and then the second variable is artificial intelligence which is how they get to full self-driving cars and their chip if you think about Tesla and think about Apple there's a very important analogy there Apple Apple designed its own chip for the smartphone market because Nokia Motorola and Ericsson were just not moving fast enough and they had the vision well guess guess who's taking all of the profits really the bulk of the profits are the same things going to happen here Tesla is moving this market I had so much faster than the other auto manufacturers that it will take them three years to catch up to where Tesla's AI chip is right now yeah right and then Tesla will be that much further ahead
and then just in terms of the stock I mean obviously it's been kind of a crazy last couple of months as a long-term investor a large holder of the stock when you see these kinds of moves does it make you re-evaluate or are you just like well we expect there's this happening and there's probably going to be a lot more episodes of this kind of volatility and this kind of I guess you could say awakening from a lot of investors kind of all at once so we have a five-year time horizon and we do in our kind of stock experience a lot of volatility and we use that volatility to our advantage trading around it so we believe that the stock our base case in five years will be at $7,000 okay so that's almost a tenfold increase our bare case is that it it doesn't it is not successful in autonomous and losses share in the electric vehicle market that bear case gets us to $1500 in five years which is roughly a doubling from where we are today that's our minimum hurdle rate of return doubling over five years which is a 15 percent compound annual rate of return that's what we think they'll they will deliver now we cannot in many of our portfolios hold more than ten girls and so we have been taking and you would expect that you know we were buying it when it was in the 180s 170s last April May and so when it's in the 900 you'd expect us to be taking profits otherwise we'd have a stock at nearly 25% of our portfolios and flipping it to the Robin Hood
I want to ask you about the solar business because some people have said that's kind of an albatross around their neck there was controversy around the acquisition how is what's your forecast for that part of the business is it viable is it critical to Tesla what if it fails for some reason doesn't matter so in the numbers I just gave you we don't include solar that doesn't mean we don't think it works we just think the electric vehicle opportunity is so large that we'll spend most of our time and research doing that and that's probably where they're allocated their battery power anyway if they want to scale and go autonomous which is where the real margins are going to be we think their solar roofs are viable and and this is a smart strategy instead of going door to door and cold calling to install solar panels they're basically going to builders and saying let us work with you build out a solar roof and the financing will not be consumer installment debt which is also very difficult to get but it will be part of the purchase price of the home so we actually think it's smart and viable and that it will be a good business but the real story here is electric and autonomous vehicles and most importantly the autonomous taxi platform that we believe Tesla will build out during the next five years
earlier you were talking about that the China business before coronavirus and I'm just curious because you do have such a long time horizon you're making big bets on innovations you think are you coming the the next generation does something like coronavirus come up at arc invest you guys even think about it or discuss it or is that just such a short-term thing that it doesn't need to go into your modeling it doesn't need to go into our modeling we think they will get it under control it's all hands on deck there to do that right so no we don't however I will say that my experience has been whenever times get really tough innovation gains even more traction than it might have before you know better cheaper faster more productive better for the environment especially in China so I think President Xi will want to change the subject back to let's clean up our environment and so we actually think this this is going to be a good time for Tesla hey investors Zac
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