저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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2025년 시장 전망 커뮤니티 투표 유도. S&P500 과거 수익률 및 Trump effect 언급, 버핏 지표·PE·GDP·시총 지표상 주식시장 고평가 지적. 국가부채 확대와 금리 인하 필요성(TLT 관련) 주장, 소형주(Russell 2000) 밸류에이션 저평가 근거로 IWM 매수 입장 표명. 'AMD·meta 추가 보유' 언급하나 현재 매수가 불확실.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys TR Sox I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and what up my guys we're going to talk about some predictions for 2025 you know the stock market is a very confusing Place analysts are always wrong so we want some Community input on what's going to happen next year we're going to give you some little talking points about some things that we're thinking about going into the New Year all right get to it so Dylan you want to walk us through this first poll here you talked about yeah so if you go I don't actually know how there's people already voted um I just put this up but if you go onto our site uh or our YouTube channel just go to post it's right there we all know analysts are actually we actually did a thing on this they're right 47% of the time which is less than half you only have two directions so we figured we'll do the two stupid guys Community see what it comes out to We're just trying to do is it bullish bearish or iffy either way all right that's that's all it is yeah okay love it um so super fast this is the Spy um over it's technically including it's one year from now which is 1229 so there's like an extra two days in there um but you can see it went up about 25% more when you add dividends that green square there that is the Trump effect that is Trump yeah that is Trump being um winning the presidency so I have been very open I think 2025 I logically he's not going to do well but I I seem I seem to be in the wrong here so the Trump effect is the green square is that transient or is that going to continue all right go to the next one this is just the cues same exact thing Trump effect is real somehow yeah slightly more exaggerated because it's accus and everything's always a little bit more ridiculous on theist right this is the Spy over the last year I just want to show you the two segments so financials carried it hitting almost 30% and then the Communication Service um Netflix alone I think was up like 80 or something that's in that communication services so two big sectors really carried this all right um and then I just wanted real quick this is just the yearly you know 2003 through 2023 spy just the rate of returns not many negative returns all right just just not that many it's usually pretty steady also if you look at that not that many under 8% there's only like four yeah there yeah it's always funny to when you're looking at the performance of different like uh mutual funds and stuff how when you look at the last 10 years performance it's like so much above like the long-term average it's just been crazy we've had so many outsized large positive years of the last few like this you know 30% almost 30% almost 30% like it's crazy yeah I agree to me you know you know you take over here yeah yeah well I mean one of the effects of that is like where did that 30% growth come from and know this is get Beat to Death whatever this is that Buffet indicator uh but we are on a nice prickly point you know we're pretty extended from this Old Line yeah there's a lot of arguments you can make about how it's useless but you know it's still a thing that people look at when they look at stock market valuations um same thing you know we did a video talking about uh Warren Buffett's massive cash pile has never been larger if you look at it from a say a b is a much bigger company now than it used to be what percent percentage of their assets are actually in cash and this is the answer for there like this it's only been this high once before effectively in terms of percentage of assets that were held in cash so still another indicator that's interesting um so PE all right another valuation of you know kind of stock market values right um we're on a very expensive Point here where we we've been pretty extended for a little period of time and sure it's probably been more expensive in the past but we're not at a point where like oh my God everything's like uh back up the truck and load it up in cash and see how much you can buy because we're still pretty extended so these are all things that we're going into 2025 knowing that that's already the case yeah uh another point I wanted to make here is that this is GDP so one of the other things that backs up the stock market valuation is gross domestic product this is on a per capita basis but we are also you know at all-time highs as far as GDP per capita in the United States so there's something underpinning this that is not entirely fictitious that the economy is strong and that we're producing a lot of stuff as as a country on a per person basis and so there there's something to be said for why the stock market valuations are so high um and then this is total stock market capitalization how much is the US total stocks worth uh we come back down a little bit from our high but still a pretty elevated uh you know point in history as far as overall stock market value yep yeah so yeah oh this is a negative thing that's at alltime high this is US national debt um I didn't make this chart but I I did love that little not here of debt out the woo um you know I'm not quite sure what part of the anatomy the Woo is but I'd imagine it's rather uncomfortable to have that much debt stuck in it um but 36 trillion dollars which is why uh this ties into Dylan's TLT trade a little bit and actually my um kind of small cap index investing you know thesis um you know when you look at the projections forward about the national debt not only do we have our primary deficit meaning we are spending M we taking in every year when you actually include the interest look how much more egregious this gets it gets so bad it's so stupid it is I'm not even gonna get started and you know not to get political for you here but yeah we're going to have a rather unorthodox um you know kind of change here in our executive branch of the US government so one thing for sure is that the predictions of old are going to be thrown out the window because it's going to be much better than this or much worse than this probably not going to be within like a normal moreal certainty it's going to be pretty extreme either the way could be better could be worse we'll see I hope I hope everyone regardless of political affiliation is hoping for better because that is a terrifying chart yeah yeah absolutely um so you know that ties with this thesis that how long can interest rates stay elevated right this is the federal funds rate um we have had a couple cuts here but we're still at an elevated rate compared to where we've been for the last couple decades um you know despite seeing this this massive growth in S&P 500 over that time period um we are seeing a significantly higher fed funds rate which the thought is that in order to service that debt which on the previous side you saw was going to get much more expensive as time goes by for the US government um that rates will have to come down somewhat yes right it's it's like a game of chicken you just don't want to play this is just it's so bad not good that's is also my thesis for TLT it just it has I mean the Eur have to go down it just there's is not sustainable exactly and you know L kind of Disconnect you've seen that this has caused so this is comparing the small cap versus large caps in terms of their PE ratios right um now classically small cap companies have more debt therefore they're they're more subject to interest rate risk than large cap companies which particularly in the US are much more you know they have overabundance of cash that's why they're doing dividends and BuyBacks and those sort of things in order to get the cash off their balance sheet whereas these small cat companies tend to have the opposite problems they don't they're cash poor so when you have a higher interest rate environment they tend to suffer more um as we're we're looking at this here this is comparing the PE ratios they are at the 18th percentile of where they should be in terms of their valuations which is why I've been buying small cap ETFs this is another thought or way to play this whole long-term interest rate you know kind of reversion towards the recent mean of you will I know when you look at that chart there much longer term thing where interest rates have been much higher for longer but we're addicted to cheap debt in this country we have a lot of debt at the national level one would think logically that maybe we start to decrease the FED funds rate and TT trade would come into play at that point and also this this you know kind of uh small cap index investing you know thesis would play out as well which is why I've been making that aspect of it so before we go um if you had to pick a couple stocks ETFs whatever it is that you wanted to get more into meaning increase your weight portfolio for 2025 or would it be because people are going to ask uh so small cap Russell 2000 Index is is where I'm putting majority of my contribution is going into 2025 okay so same actually completely agree it seems like that would be the most logical place in addition for me also AMD and meta those those two plus iwm so yeah uh all right AMD I I'd have to look at their numbers and same thing with meta I don't don't know what a current Buy price for I have uhk of it but I don't know where I'd be buying more at this point it's I'm I'm hoping for a I feel bad saying I'm hoping for a crash I'm logically thinking there should be a crash I don't think I'm going to be right full disclosure I don't I didn't think we're going to get 30% this year so you know what do I know but meta at like 400 looks real good if that happened all right hey you know I'm very proud of my meta call okay uh I didn't hold of it long enough but I was very very proud of that completely agree all right guys uh vote and then check back and L like a week we'll see what the votes are happy New Year likewise happy New Year
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