저자: CathieWood,TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 바닥을 다지고 장기 상승 추세가 재개될 것으로 보며, 신용시장은 안정적이라고 주장. 기술 발전이 디플레이션 압력을 만들어 장단기 금리 곡선이 산업혁명기처럼 움직일 수 있다고 봄. AI 도입 기업이 오히려 고용을 늘린다고 주장. Tom Lee는 AI·로봇 기반 기계 간 거래 경제로 전환 중이며, 로봇은 스마트폰보다 훨씬 많은 메모리·반도체를 쓰므로 반도체·메모리 수요가 구조적으로 커진다고 봄. 자막상 구체적 가격 목표나 기간 명시는 없음.
다듬은 글
The next wave of cryptocurrency growth may not be driven solely by hype. It could be fueled by something much larger: artificial intelligence, robotics, and one of the greatest technological transformations in history. Some of Wall Street's most respected investors believe the foundation for the next massive crypto rally is already being laid.
Katie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, says Bitcoin appears to have bottomed out and believes the long-term uptrend is ready to resume. She also argues that technology creates powerful deflationary forces, while AI makes businesses more productive, leading to increased hiring rather than job losses . At the same time, Tom Lee believes that we are entering a completely new economy, where AI, robots, and machine-to-machine transactions will change global infrastructure and create huge investment opportunities for the coming years.
If they are right, this is not just another crypto cycle, but the beginning of a technological revolution that will transform the global economy and elevate digital assets to levels that seem almost impossible today. In this video, we break down Katie Wood's latest prediction on Bitcoin and macroeconomics, why she believes technology is paving the way for the next bull market, and Tom Lee's powerful thesis on AI, robotics, and the new economy.
We will also explore what these trends could mean for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market ahead of the next phase of this cycle. . Gold is falling. Bitcoin was also falling. It looks like he is in the process of hitting rock bottom. We believe that on this basis it has bottomed out and will resume the very volatile but overall uptrend that you see on this chart.
And two more graphs. Are credit markets warning us about something? No. Everything is calm . Even with the outflow of private lending funds, I saw Blue Owl again have to cap withdrawals from two of its private lending funds at 5%. I think one of them received a request to withdraw almost 40% of the funds.
So, even despite this, the situation remains calm. These are bank credit default swaps. And they basically indicate that what is happening in the world of private lending is not affecting the banking system and, therefore, will not become a systemic problem. And the last graph is, uh, the high-yield bond spread.
So, junk bonds relative to Treasuries. And again, the same signal. Uh, I think we had a little spike because of the war in Iran, but things have calmed down. Judging by these last two graphs, there's nothing to worry about . One of the most important questions every investor asks after a correction is simple.
Has Bitcoin finally found its bottom, or is another painful stage of decline ahead? Katie Wood believes the answer is becoming increasingly obvious. Looking at Bitcoin relative to gold, she argues that the worst of the decline is likely behind us and the long-term trend is starting to rise again. Her confidence is not based solely on price indicators.
It also points to what is happen. While private lending funds have faced an increase in withdrawal requests, the broader credit markets remain surprisingly calm. Bank credit default swaps remain low, and high-yield bond spreads are relatively tight. In other words, the financial system is not exhibiting the level of general stress that has historically accompanied major economic crises.
Recent market data continues to show that lending conditions remain fairly resilient, despite isolated pockets of weakness in private lending. This is important as Bitcoin increasingly becomes a macro asset. When investors believe that systemic risks are disappearing and liquidity conditions are improving, confidence often returns primarily to assets with higher growth potential.
Katie Wood has argued for years that Bitcoin is becoming a global store of value, with each cycle bringing greater institutional participation than the last. As spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to expand access for investors and adoption steadily increases across financial markets, a healthier macroeconomic backdrop could provide another powerful impetus for the next phase of the bull market.
But the prospects for Bitcoin are only part of Katie Wood's thesis. She believes that an even greater economic force is quietly emerging, capable of changing markets for years to come. The long end of the curve is starting to experience some deflationary undercurrents, uh, related to technology. And, uh, considering the source, it made a lot of sense to us .
And I think we're getting some confirmation here because, uh, you see what's happened to the yield curve, uh, recently. Uh, it's starting to level out again, uh, reaching half of what it was after COVID. And again we ask: okay, what does this tell us? Er , long-term rates are rising less than short-term rates.
Or when they fall, long-term rates fall more than short-term rates. And this , I think, is indicative. Uh , and we really believe that deflation is a real possibility because of technology. And as I mentioned earlier, this is exactly what happened during the Industrial Revolution. Uh, the yield curve was inverted more than half the time.
And, uh, it was inverted by an average of 100 basis points. Uh, so again , we believe we are in an era of technological revolution. Uh, and we believe that, uh, the yield curve, uh, might, um, behave very much like it did during the Industrial Revolution. Katie Wood believes that one of the biggest forces shaping the next decade is not inflation.
This is technology-driven deflation. At first glance, this may seem like a negative, but history suggests otherwise. When technology makes businesses more productive, it reduces the cost of producing goods and services. Companies become more efficient , consumers gain purchasing power, and entire new industries emerge.
This is exactly what, according to Katie Wood, is happening today thanks to artificial intelligence, automation, and digital innovation. She points to the yield curve as one of the signals that supports this view. In her opinion, long-term bond markets are beginning to understand that technology can eventually curb inflation, similar to what happened during the Industrial Revolution.
While short-term interest rates often respond to current economic conditions, long-term yield rates reflect investors' expectations about the future of the economy. Her argument is that markets are gradually pricing in a future where technology continues to increase productivity at an extraordinary rate.
Interestingly, recent economic data also suggests that the US manufacturing sector remains in a state of expansion, with the ISM Manufacturing index holding above the key 50 level for several consecutive months. This shows that the economy continues to grow even as companies actively invest in new technologies that increase efficiency.
For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, this combination could be extremely powerful . An economy growing through technological innovation creates an environment where investors are more willing to embrace long-term innovative assets. If artificial intelligence becomes one of the defining trends of this decade, blockchain technology could become one of its most important financial foundations.
And lready changing business today. What she noticed inside her own firm may surprise many. oviding digest. It's designed to give you quick, actionable information . I look at this graph and I think that in the not too distant future we will be talking about a labor shortage. And one of the reasons is a recent study by Ramp.
This is a startup. Its economics department conducted research on companies that are fast adopters of AI, aggressive users, and those that are not. And it turned out that over the next 2 years, and ChatGPT was still quite young then. Over the next 2 years, those who actively used it hired 10% more people than those who didn't.
I think I remember it correctly , at least something like that. So, we surprise ourselves. I didn't think we would hire as many people as we do now. But we hire engineers. We have hired three engineers in the last year. Most companies our size wouldn't hire engineers. This is because we simply couldn't achieve the performance required to justify them.
With the advent of AI, the situation has changed. So I think we're also hiring other specialists at the assistant level, young people for whom AI is a native environment. We want them to bring these skills to our organization. One of the biggest fears about artificial intelligence is that it will replace millions of workers.
Katie Wood sees the opposite. Rather than eliminating opportunities, she believes AI is becoming a powerful productivity tool that allows companies to grow faster, expand into new areas, and hire more people than they otherwise could. She points to studies comparing businesses that aggressively implemented artificial intelligence with those that did not .
Companies that adopted these new tools ended up hiring more workers in the years that followed, not fewer. Katie Wood says she has seen this trend firsthand at ARK Invest. Instead of laying off staff, the firm is adding engineers and bringing in younger employees who are already using artificial intelligence in their daily work.
These new capabilities allowed the company to implement projects that would have previously been unviable. This trend is becoming increasingly visible in the broader economy. Big tech companies continue to invest tens of billions of dollars in artificial intelligence infrastructure, while businesses in finance, healthcare, manufacturing, and software compete to integrate these tools into daily operations.
Rather than replacing innovation , artificial intelligence accelerates it. Creating demand for new skills, new businesses, and entirely new markets. This is important for the crypto industry, as blockchain networks are expected to increasingly power the digital economy, which artificial intelligence is helping to create.
As intelligent software processes more and more transactions, digital identities, payments, and data exchanges, decentralized networks become even more valuable as trusted layers of settlement. Many industry leaders believe that artificial intelligence and blockchain will develop side by side, rather than competing with each other.
This brings us to Tom Lee, who believes this technological revolution goes far beyond software. In his opinion, we are entering a completely new economy, where machines themselves could become some of the largest users of digital infrastructure in the world. Looking back on my thirty-plus year career on Wall Street, I truly believe that this is a unique time for US investors as a significant technological transformation is taking place, with America at the center of it .
So I think there are a lot of opportunities ahead. But, of course, there are also many risks. However, in my opinion , now is a really good time for investors. I think the discussion about memory and semiconductors comes down to the question: is it a longer cycle? Is this still a normal cycle? Or maybe something has changed?
Is this really a new, well, new economy? I am inclined to believe that this is a new economy because machine-to- machine interaction will become more important in the future. Whether it's computers talking to computers, or robots talking to computers, or robots talking to robots. Compared to humans, robots use semiconductors and memory much more intensively.
And if machines become a significant part of the workforce in the future , that means a greater need for memory and semiconductors. So if you compare a robot to an iPhone, it probably has 50 times more memory components and semiconductors. Therefore, I believe it is quite logical to consider them as key components of the new infrastructure.
So this is possibly a structural change. Tom Lee believes that investors are looking at the current technology boom through the wrong lens. Many still view semiconductors and computer memory as just another part of the normal business cycle. He is convinced that something much larger is taking shape .
Instead of a temporary surge in demand, Tom Lee argues that the world is moving to a state communication become permanent drivers of economic growth. His argument is simple. A robot contains far more semiconductors and memory than a smartphone. As factories become more automated and intelligent machines take on a greater share of physical and digital work, demand for advanced computing equipment is growing rapidly.
Every robot needs powerful processors, high-speed memory, and constant connectivity to perform complex tasks. Multiply that by millions of machines, and the need for digital infrastructure becomes enormous. This trend is already accelerating. Companies are investing massively in data centers with artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation, racing to increase productivity and reduce costs.
At the same time, governments are encouraging domestic semiconductor production to secure supply chains for technologies that will define the coming decades . These investments are not made for just one production cycle. They are laying the foundation for a whole new technological era. This is important for crypto investors because blockchain networks could become one of the financial backbones of this machine economy.
While autonomous systems are beginning to exchange value, verify identiti, decentralized networks offer a global settlement layer that operates 24/7. If this vision becomes a reality, Bitcoin and Ethereum will benefit from a world that is becoming increasingly digital, automated, and interconnected.
But when you combine Katie Wood's macroeconomic perspective with Tom Lee's vision of the technological future, an even bigger picture begins to emerge. When you put these ideas together, a much larger story begins to take shape . Katie Wood sees Bitcoin emerging from what she sees as a long-term low, while technology helps reduce inflationary pressures and strengthens productivity across the economy.
Tom Lee sees artificial intelligence and robotics creating a whole new economic era that will require vast amounts of digital infrastructure. Although they approach the market from different angles , both come to a remarkably similar conclusion. The next decade could look very different from the last .
This is one reason why many long-term investors remain bullish on crypto, despite short-term volatility. Bitcoin continues to gain acceptance as a global store of value, while Ethereum is becoming the foundation for tokenized assets, decentralized finance, and stablecoin payments. Stablecoins have already reached transaction volumes measured in trillions of dollars per year, and financial institutions continue to explore tokenization as a way to transfer stocks, bonds, and other real assets on blockchain networks.
The world's largest asset managers are also expanding their digital asset offerings aat prices will only rise. The crypto market has always experienced sharp corrections, even during the strongest bullish trends. However, each cycle also brought a higher level of implementation, stronger infrastructure, and broader participation than the previous one.
That's why investors like Katie Wood and Tom Lee continue to focus on where the technology might be in 5 or 10 years, rather than what the prices are this month. If their thesis proves correct, today's headlines may later be remembered as the first chapters of a much larger transformation. The biggest rewards may not come from trying to predict every short-term move , but from understanding how artificial intelligence, blockchain, and institutional adoption are gradually becoming one of the most important investment themes of the decade. In any case, .
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