저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주택시장이 금리 인상으로 하락 국면에 진입했으며 주택 가격 하락이 소비 위축과 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다고 주장. 연준의 금리 인상이 임대료(OER) 상승을 유발해 인플레이션 측면에서 역설적 효과가 있다고 설명. Lennar 실적 발표 등을 근거로 지역별 수요 둔화와 가격 인하 확산을 제시. 주택 가격 하락은 거래 감소 후 시차를 두고 나타날 것이며 부동산 투자 교육 과정을 홍보.
다듬은 글
the housing market is one of the largest contributors to wealth in people's lives the average net worth of a homeowner after all is nearly 20 times that of a tenant and a fall in home prices are expected to destroy already low consumer confidence and lead to less spending potentially pushing us into a recession we already know that for every one hundred thousand dollars in net worth someone loses they tend to spend two thousand to three thousand dollars less per year a statistic that is very concerning given that together in the united states we have amassed a 43.4 trillion dollar housing market and folks let this be a warning to you the housing market disaster just got worse now sure you might be thinking come on home prices are at record highs like what do you mean things have getting worse it sounds pretty good well that's what you're going to learn in this video first you're going to see why the fed is fueling the fire to destroy housing and actually increase inflation before they decrease it which is a substantial irony then you'll see the cracks forming in the housing market i'll give you evidence with what home builders are telling you right now and you'll learn what to watch for so that way you can be in a position to profit first let's talk about and learn about inertial inflation and its impact on the federal reserve and how it ironically can increase inflation before it can lead inflation to go down and how it crushes the housing market the federal reserve has already raised rates to one and a half a percent at the fed funds rate and we're now expecting the fed to raise rates all the way up to three and a half to four and a quarter percent potentially all in an effort to stamp out inflation they're now mostly single mandate goal and inflation at all costs even if that means the destruction of wealth of americans and potentially even twice the joblessness rate we face that we have today but folks there's a fundamental flaw in the way that inflation is calculated 33 percent of inflation is awaited on what's known as owner's equivalent rents to try to get an understanding as to what people's housing expenses and how their housing expenses are changing over time however this reported rent does not accurately reflect what market rents are in fact there's a very clear lag between market rents increasing and owner's equivalent rents increasing most research including the projection chart on screen from jpmorgan suggests that owner's equivalent rents lag by about six months and this creates really massive issues in a board of governors discussion paper by the federal reserve titled monetary policy housing rents and inflation dynamics we learned of something very ugly that when the fed tries to get inflation under control by raising rates they have the effect of increasing mortgage rates that can drive more people to rent properties driving up the cost of rent while reducing the availability of homes for rent again contributing to an increase in the cost of rent then six months later higher rents show up in cpi inflation and this is the substantial irony that the more the fed raises rates the more people are driven to renting and not buying because buying becomes substantially unaffordable and now the fed is actually driving up something that has a one-third weight in inflation so even if airfares were to come down or even if apparel or used car prices came down leading inflation to come down they might be immediately offset by increases in the owner's equivalent rents which is sort of a misleading way of measuring housing and rent inflation anyway but this is ironic again when the federal reserve and we know this when the federal reserve raises rates buyers lose purchasing power to the tune of about 10 percent per 1 percent increase in mortgage rates so if mortgage rates go up 3 percent buyers lose about 30 percent in purchasing power but if at the same time the federal reserve is actually driving up one of the heaviest weights in the inflation basket then the fed is actually creating more pain in the short term by raising rates driving up the costs of rent also driving up the cost of producing goods again via increased wholesale prices credit lines you name it and so what ends up happening before things get better things get worse and that could lead the federal reserve to raise mortgage rates even more than they actually need to leading the housing market to experience even more pain and folks the cracks are everywhere yesterday lennar reported earnings they are the second largest home builder in the united states that's been building homes for almost 70 years take a look at some of the sections from the lennar earnings call some would call it a disaster and what you're about to see is a warning that should make you really interested in preparing yourself in getting ready for what's to come but see we don't get taught about real estate in schools or by most of our parents i feel blessed to be part of a real estate family who's been buying below market wedge deals and property managing professionally for 40 years and as a real estate broker for over 10 years a former licensed lender and licensed contractor someone who went from zero to millionaire in real estate by 23 years old with nothing at 18 to over 20 million dollars of real estate by 29 i've put together an amazing program for you on building your wealth with real estate it's linked down below it's the zero to millionaire real estate program a lot of people bundle this up with the programs on stocks or real estate agent programs or the property management programs but zero to millionaire is the place to start you can get 50 off with is will teach you the path to not only save money with our partnership with lows or to save money by making the right decisions but it'll also help you go from zero to millionaire help you identify and understand the real estate cycle identify good deals identify good multi-family single-family deals international deals 90 of the courses applicable to international communities because real estate is principles based you just adjust a little bit for taxes and loans but we also teach you how to save money investing for the long term making the right decisions and renovations and we'll teach you how to work with the right individuals because real estate is a people business so if you want to become a people business expert and you want to make money investing in real estate during this next downturn this is the program for you it's not a flippers course it's a program on building your long-term wealth and let me tell you the cracks are here folks the cracks are here and this is why this is the most opportune time to get educated in real estate take a look at this report from lennar this report from lennar is out from june 21st 2022 it's a very recent look into the housing market and what's happening take a listen to what lennar the second largest home builder in the united states is telling you quote so far in june new orders traffic sales incentives and cancellations have worsened in when in many of our markets do the rapid spike in mortgage rates and headwinds from negative economic headlines and the pain falls under three categories category one minimal impacts category 2 modest impacts and category 3 significant impacts take a look at category 1 florida jersey maryland charlotte indianapolis chicago dallas houston san antonio phoenix san diego orange county and the inland empire all of these markets have benefited from extremely low inventory and many of them are benefiting from a strong local economy employment growth and then migration and while these markets continue to be strong here's your crack our sales pace and purchasing power has started to flatten or has flattened in each of these markets so even though these are hot markets with low inventory purchasing power has flattened or is flattening these are the good markets category 2 markets this is where things start getting worse atlanta colorado charleston myrtle beach nashville philadelphia virginia the bay area reno and salt lake city in each of these markets traffic is slow and we've seen an uptick in cancellation rates and they're now having to offer more aggressive financing now one of the most important things to know about a home builder is that home builders don't like lowering prices so when they lower prices you know things are bad they would rather give you what are called builder incentives such as buying down your mortgage with incentive aggressive financing programs or by giving you more incentives to spend money on improvements for your property and so when they're talking about targeted price reductions selectively reducing our sales prices to solve for a mortgage payment that works for the buyers and now they're trying to sell you on a payment you know we have issues category free market more significant market softening and correction including areas like raleigh minnesota austin texas los angeles central valley sacramento and seattle raleigh was an extremely strong market but softened significantly at the beginning of june these cracks are just now starting people keep talking about how great the housing market is you know how great it's been so far even this year oh it's holding up great the cracks are just now beginning take a look at this as a result we have room for needed future pricing adjustments because prices have gone up but look at the minnesota market it's been very challenging buyers have always been conservative in this market and rates have increased but there's now been a strong pushback against the current pricing this is a problem and they now see strong price reductions austin texas higher rates in june and headlines on the stock market declines have distressed the national economy sidelining many buyers who are waiting for a reset in home values and while inventory is limited right the biggest argument that everybody keeps saying oh real estate can't go down because inventory is limited oh yeah well what's happening in austin cancellation rates have increased and we've reduced home prices in many communities on a home by home basis and have offered extremely competitive mortgage programs these pricing adjustments are starting to generate increased sales activity but again they're having to drop prices take a look at this los angeles central valley and sacramento extremely credit challenged buyers with cancellation rates increasing and what do we have in the q a well one of the executives at lennar telling you at the end of the day we're probably going to push more people from home ownership towards renting that means multi-family traditional multifamily as well as single-family homes for rent and again exactly why you want to become an expert real estate investor because the opportunities for rents going up and prices going down are an opportunity to make money and to build your wealth your long-term wealth but wait a minute is this just happening in the united states no of course not take a look at the index for frothy markets throughout the world the united states ranks seventh with a price to rent ratio of 139 and a price to income ratio of 135.
new zealand tops the list followed by the czech republic australia canada portugal folks this is a global issue and why this is happening should be obvious more than 60 central banks around the world have raised rates this year and they're not on pace to slow down their rate hikes anytime soon even jerome powell the chairperson of the federal reserve said today that home prices are quote unsustainably high in front of congress and sees no chance that home price appreciation doesn't slow if not potentially lead to a fall in home prices he went as far as saying this to first-time home buyers just last week i would say if you're if you're a home buyer somebody or a young person looking to buy a home you need a bit of a reset we we need to get back to a place where where supply and demand are are back together and where inflation is down low again and mortgages or mortgage rates are low again so this this will be a process whereby we ideally we we do our work in a way that where the housing market settles in a new place and housing availability and credit availability are at appropriate levels redfin just reported that at the end of the year 61.6 percent of people could afford a home on a 2500 per month budget today only 45.6 percent of homes are affordable with this budget throughout the entire united states and in phoenix only 21.5 percent of homes are affordable of course the same argument that is made that oh housing can't fall it won't fall it'll continue to rise is one that increasingly seems unlikely those who suggest that well but kevin there are more households or more people in buying age or in the buying age today than there were in the mid-2000s conveniently forget that homes are now 60 more expensive than the mid-2000s and in many cases double to triple what we had seen previously but also that home prices have substantially outpaced increases in incomes with home prices on average 20 percent more than incomes have risen supply chains have also created another potential disaster for home builders take the dallas texas market for example there are now twice as many homes in construction in the dallas market than at any point in the past this is partially due to massive supply chain led delays that have stalled the building process as home builders waited for garage doors or even appliances like refrigerators and dishwashers or windows or doors you name it that temporarily depressed housing inventory towards the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 but as that inventory comes online towards the end of 2022 at the same time as interest rates are now four percentage points higher than where they were in the past that is the recent past just december we could expect a disaster of a flood of inventory just at the wrong time when rates are high so what's likely to happen well first multiple offers go away redfin has already reported that the share of multiple offers per home is going down second we start seeing price drops on active listings nationwide we've seen a substantial impact in the number of homes with price drops you can take a look at this yourself but just looking at the redfin data center look at the redfin data center of percent of active listings with price drops in the entire united states average together on a rolling four-week average this means it's even worse probably now and this data right here as of about 10 days ago it updates about every two weeks but take a look at this this black line here is 2022 and we are seeing substantial price drops more than we have ever before in the last four years this is how it begins folks price drops what happens after price drops more stagnant listings this is a sudden and stark transition and after these price drops come of course inventory stagnating and building up that is less home selling every single month despite price drops more homes sitting on the market then we'll actually eventually start to see home prices fall and see the thing about real estate is real estate moves very slowly homes are appraised based on previous month's sales so it could take three to six months sometimes even longer to actually see home prices be affected that's because people buying in march look at what people paid for their homes in january and think maybe they're getting a good deal in march because they're paying the same price and prices haven't gone up but oh wait a minute the person buying in january had a two and a half percent mortgage the person buying in march had a four and a half percent mortgage the person buying in june had a six and a half percent mortgage prices will come down even agents can feel it happening immediately with more buyer anxiety cancellations and lower offers and we're seeing it in the data as well once prices start to drop there's then the fear that mainstream media will over dramatize the drop and potentially lead to more selling or panic selling now some say but who would move because if you sell you're just gonna have to rebuy again at a higher interest rate it's the most common question i get asked but folks who ask this question don't understand how real estate works there are plenty of people who sell homes every single day and don't buy another home in fact as a real estate agent maybe one in ten of my home sales was somebody who was selling to buy another home that's because some people retire they move into an existing property that they own an existing rental property they move in with family or maybe they're a second home seller raising money to buy other assets or sit in cash or they're investors who straight up don't have to rebuy because they're a mom and pop landlord or they're a hedge fund these are companies that or people who do not have to rebuy when they sell some people also just decide i'm going to sell on purpose and go rent and they contribute to rent prices going up so what should you do well first get educated as prices fall you need to educate yourself prepare for the opportunity of a lifetime to buy real estate and depressed values learn how to identify deals and work with people real estate is a people business and if you're not aware of the tricks of real estate you can learn everything linked down below with the 50 off coupon code expiring in a few days before prices rise again and you can join me in private live streams where we talk not only about the market but about what i'm doing in real estate and we analyze deals together second should you short home builders or the real estate sector possibly according to bloomberg the msci world index the real estate sector of the s p 500 or the msci world real estate index still sits above its 10-year average that means real estate prices in the stock market still actually have a substantial amount of froth left in them even though many home builder stocks for example have already fallen 25 to 40 percent there is more room to fall third you should raise money and pay off your debt now is the time to work harder and smarter to get out of debt don't buy or lease a new car don't finance anything and start paying down debt to prepare to buy real estate fourth stay away from syndications they are the most expensive form of buying real estate often with promoters who charge insane fees like two percent management fees every single year and 35 waterfalls it's insane fifth share this video tell your friends and families about what's happening you're owed the truth and a falling housing market could mean more joblessness and the wealth effect of falling home values crimping our economy into a recession so be prepared and get ready now is the time to be a survivor
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