저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
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분산투자는 잘 아는 투자자에게는 불필요하며, 몇 개의 우량 기업에 집중하는 것이 더 낫다는 주장 핵심 주장: 분산투자는 무지에 대한 보호장치이며, 기업을 분석하고 가치평가할 줄 아는 사람이 40~50개 종목을 보유하는 것은 미친 짓이라는 입장 버핏은 개인 포트폴리오에서 한 종목만 보유하고 있으며, 그것도 잘 아는 사업이라 편안하다고 언급 3개의 훌륭한 기업이 100개의 평균적 기업보다 낫고, 위험도 더 낮다고 주장 근거: 코카콜라 등 큰 부는 50개 기업 포트폴리오가 아니라 훌륭한 한 기업에서 만들어졌다는 사례 제시 뮤추얼펀드·현대 포트폴리오 이론에 대한 비판: 현대 기업금융 수업의 상당 부분이 'twaddle(헛소리)'이라고 평가 언급 자산 및 방향: 버크셔 해서웨이, 코스트코, 로이스 캐피털 등 보유 기업 언급(가격 방향 예측 없음) 조건/리스크: 이는 기업 분석 능력이 있는 투자자 전제이며, 지식이 없는 투자자에게는 광범위한 분산이 적절하다고 명시 큰 기회는 드물며 그때 과감하게 집중 투자해야 한다는 조건부 주장 출연자 전망: 특정 시장·종목 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측 발언은 없음 주의: 자막 자동인식 기반 요약이며 일부 오타 가능성 있음
다듬은 글
we think diversification is as practice generally makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they're doing diversification is a protection against ignorance i mean if you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market you own everything there's nothing wrong with that i mean that is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who who does not feel they know how to analyze businesses if you know how to analyze businesses and value businesses it's crazy to own 50 stocks or 40 stocks or 30 stocks probably because there aren't that many wonderful businesses at that are understandable to a single human being in all likelihood and it and to have some super wonderful business and then putting money in number 30 or 35 on your list of attractiveness and forego putting more money into number one just strikes charlie and me as as as madness and it's conventional practice and it it may you know if all you have to achieve is is average it's uh it may preserve your job but it's it's a confession in our view that you don't really understand the businesses that you own um you know i base i mean on a personal portfolio basis you know i own one stock you know but it's a business i know it and it leaves me very comfortable uh so you know do i do i need to own 28 stocks in order to have proper diversification you know and be nonsense and within berkshire i could pick out three of our businesses and i would i would be very happy if they were the only businesses we owned and i had all my money in berkshire now i love it the fact that we can find more than that and that we keep adding to it but three wonderful businesses is is more than it's more than you need in this life to do very well and the average the average person isn't going to run into that i mean if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country uh they weren't built out of a portfolio of 50 companies they were they were built by someone who who uh identified with us with a wonderful business coca-cola is a great example a lot of fortunes have been built on that and there aren't 50 coca-colas yeah there aren't 20 if there were be fine we could all go out and diversify like crazy among that group and get results that would be equal to owning the really wonderful one but you're not going to find it and and the truth is you don't need it i mean if you have a really wonderful business is very well protected against against the vicissitudes of the economy over time and and and competition i mean you know we're talking about businesses that are resistant to effective competition and three of those will be better than 100 average businesses that uh and and they'll be safer incidentally i mean they there is less risk in owning three easy to identify wonderful businesses there than there is in owning 50 um well-known big businesses and it's amazing what has been taught over the years in finance classes about that but i can assure you that that i would rather pick if i had to bet the next 30 years on the fortunes of my family that would be dependent upon the income from a given group of businesses i would rather pick three businesses from those we own then own a diversified group of 50 charlie what he's saying is that much of what is taught in modern corporate finance courses is twaddle you want to elaborate on that charlie the whole secret of investment is to find places where it's safe and wise to non-diversify it's just that simple diversification is for the know-nothing investor it's not for the professional and there's nothing wrong with the no-nothing investor practicing it it's exactly what they should practice it's exactly what a good professional investor should not practice but that's you know there's no contradiction in that that a know-nothing investor will get decent results as long as they know they're a know-nothing investor diversify as the time they purchase their equities and as to the equities they purchase that's crazy for somebody that really knows what they're doing and uh you will find opportunities that if you put 20 of your net worth in it you've wasted the opportunity of a lifetime you know in terms of not really loading up and uh we've had the chance to do that way way in our past when we're working with small sums of money we'll never get a chance to do that working with the kinds of money that berkshire does we try to load up on things there will be markets when we get a chance to from time to time very solid do we get to buy as much of any good idea as we would like to the opportunities in life are going to be rare because that's the nature of the human condition and the best and wisest are only going to get a few big opportunities and you really have to step up to the pie counter and take a big helping when you get your small share and i've been very good at that so what does the opportunity look like it looks like a sure thing you cannot believe this though modern portfolio theory the very word diversification which is taught in every business school is the holy golden grail i consider almost asinine i'm only interested in investing where i have some sort of advantage and and of course that means i can't do the conventional things and if i have the advantage in three different things that's enough for any family three wonderful things with the odds in your favor i mean do you want egg in your beer in life and so i think the idea of a big diversified for that's fine for the ignorant people to be fully diversified but if you actually know what you're doing i think three investments are plenty and the mongers if you take berkshire and costco and lulu's asian fund that's 90 of the money
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