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Hey guys, Mike here. So, what a day in the market and this is a loaded video. So, I'm going to keep this intro short. We're going to go over the heavyweights that were absolutely moving the market because trust me, this was not a market pump. This was heavyweights pumping and battling it out, which we'll talk about that.
We'll talk about why they were pumping so hard. Also, we'll go over the earnings moves on PayPal, Sofi, UNH, UPS, and then we'll hit a few other stocks uh to be looking out for. Okay. So, again, loaded video. Uh, but you know, looking at real quick the weekly ETF lows. I like to give you updates on this.
And this was again, we've seen this twice in four weeks now. Very spread out, which is something you normally don't see. It's been the MAG 7 or the US large caps been getting all the money in the last two weeks. But you can see they spread it out between consumer cyclical sectors, US large caps, a billion for small caps.
The globals led the way, which that was surprising. Bonds of course keep getting bought up and understand they're going to cut rates tomorrow. Okay? I don't know if it's going to be 25 or 50. Let me know in the comments what you think. But again, I showed you this last time when they cut when we were 2% away from alltime highs.
They're going to cut again when we're at all-time highs. And you can see all the green. Okay. When you look at the 21st century here on especially a year later, say you know keep that in mind. I know last time people like there was no way they cut at alltime highs. The Fed does not care about the stock market, bro.
All they care about is the bond market. Okay, now remember this was not a stock market pump. You can see it was the MAG 7 and 8, excuse me, large cap, cyber, semiconductors, and you see everything else pretty much either flat or red. You see all the sectors there. That was the big dispersion between the S&P and the Q's today as you can see.
Then you got the VIX green, IWM's red, equal weight ETF for the S&P is red. Even QQ, which was surprising, which the equal weight for the QQQ was red. We had the Dow green, Dow Jones on transportation was red. So again, this was not that. It was just, hey Sam, Sam Sam, where's Sam at? And there's Sam Alman.
Okay, so we got the Sam first Sam Alman sighting in pre-market. Actually, two of them. And this was Microsoft and Open AI agree to a new forprofit deal. Window makers get 27% of the stake. Microsoft goes boom. You talking about the third heaviest weighted. It might have passed Apple today again to be the second heaviest weighted.
came right up into this large daily fair value gap right there as you can see or 4 hour fair value gap. Start to mitigate most of that and then sold back down from around 555 back to 542. And don't forget I mean they got earnings. Okay, that's tomorrow. So I hate when stocks pump before the earnings, especially the day before.
But again, we'll see what happens. Okay, got a lot of stuff going on tomorrow. Uh when you look over at Tesla, you might have noticed right out of the gates. I didn't see any news at all once again, but the call premiums over 100 mil come in very quickly in the first couple hours. It pumps from like 453 to 465 I believe it was.
And what I'm going to do is take these trend lines off cuz this ain't not a megaphone pattern, I don't believe anymore. You can see it's mitigating most of that imbalance. And so, you know, once again, down below, there's plenty of liquidity to be had. So, if the market wants to do a pullback real quick, test previous all-time highs, all that fun stuff.
It's ran a lot in the last three days, then that is there. Okay. I think a lot of that will depend on Nvidia. Of course, remember Tesla doesn't have earnings anymore. So, we'll see if liquidity gets sucked out and starts heading in other places or not. But again, you can see up to the top if it breaks above that 470, then obviously 484 is the next thing level to watch out for.
Support 460, 448. You can see the liquidity down below around 439. Now, of course, what happened? Why' it stop pumping? The Nvidia CEO started talking. All right. And all of a sudden, 200 I think it was 25 million in call premium. Took this thing from 194 to 203. And he just kept announcing deal after deal and then going over the old deals.
And you can tell when he started to talk cuz immediately Tesla just fizzled out and it started going on because they're step brothers and they hate each other and they can't go together. But he announced new partnerships with Palunteer, Crowd Strike, Uber. Feel free to look those up. and then started going on some others they already got.
So this finally pushed us past 200. We kept waiting to see if we 200. You know, if we broke out of this falling wedge right here, then it started flagging and then when it broke that 184, it was gone. And this one doesn't have earnings for a while. Okay, so it kind of got a reprieve, but you can see it's kind of in between fibs, right?
So at 19278 fib right there and the next one's like 21682. Okay, so again, I don't know of any catalyst coming up uh except for earnings right now. He just had the catalyst today which would have been this announcement. I'm sorry. Let me say one thing. You do have the president and Jensen Wong meeting tomorrow.
And so could be wrong on that. Maybe you get a pump from that. Maybe it's a sell the news bin. I don't know. I don't know what they're going to be talking about. Uh UNH here again when this one's flagged the last couple times. It's broken up higher. But boy, pre-market, man, this thing got slapped down by 200 moving average.
Bam. 200 moving average is strong, baby. I mean, just torched this thing. And so when it hit in pre-market, it's not supposed to count in pre-market, but clearly you can see it hit to the penny, and that's the first retest of the 200, it got slapped down. Okay, it gave back all its gains. Actually went red for a minute there and then started to recover.
So it did close above that bull flag right there, but it closed below the 37794, which was the previous, I guess, 52- week high, I guess you could say, if you're looking at that way. I don't know if it's 52 weeks, but however many weeks it was. And so again, 388118 is where that 200 sits. How do we know it's a brick wall?
You just go back and look in the past and look how many times it's rejected. Okay, that's how you know. You can see the left all those rejections. Okay, and so up above you got the 200 week. It's got to get through the 200 first and close above that. But if it does, the 200 week, which will move, is right there.
It starts that next big gap up. A lot of this though, let's be real about it, is going to depend on what happens with ACA subsidies, okay? And so premium payments will increase by 114% if Congress does not extend the enhancement premium. Suppose this is coming up very soon. I don't know how much is going to affect UNH versus other insurance companies.
If you're in the insurance company, let me know about that, please. Uh now, PayPal, this is the turd in the toilet bowl. This thing right here, this long trend line going back to 2021. It goes, hey, look at this. I mean, it pops. It goes to 82 bucks a share, baby. I think it's up like 14% in pre-market again.
What happened? We called on Sam Alman. Sam, need a deal. Let's do this. I can't push myself up. Come on, Sam. And Sam said, "Sure, what the heck, baby?" And so, they end up partnering with OpenAI to let users pay for their shopping within chat GPT. And so, that's the deal. But, of course, since PayPal's a turd, what does it do?
It goes from 82 in pre-market all the way back down to 73. drops 12% and mind you, it closed yesterday below this trend line at 71. So, $2 a share on all that fun stuff. I mean, wow. But remember, this is one of those kind of companies that has enjoyed none, and I repeat, none of the bull run the last three years.
I mean, that's it's literally right where it was at the bottom of October 2022. That's how sad this is. And I really feel bad for shareholders, honestly. But the big thing you're looking for if your shareholders momentum on the daily RSI is above 50, MACD's above zero. But here's the key. It's the weekly, guys.
The weekly is above 50. But look at that freaking MACD. Still below zero. So bulls are not in charge on that higher time frame. If you want a big move, you got to get above the zero line. How do we know that? We just look in the past. When's the last time it had a really big move over a long period of time?
It's when the MACD came above that zero line. Boom. 61% in 161 days. That's a nice move. Now, it had another move over here below the zero line, you can see, but it's only about a third of that move. You're looking for a big move, right? You want to really move up here. You want the bulls to be completely in charge on these higher time frames.
That was 26%. It's not bad. That's not what you're looking for. Okay. And again, the last time it came up above here, what is it, like 2020? Yeah, 2020, 2021. Wow. So, that's that's correct. a two-year time span from being above the zero line on the MACD. That's crazy. You know, now looking at a fintech company that's not a turd.
Well, that's SoFi, right? Pops the new alltime highs, cames down, does what it always does, retest this trend line and support once again what was resistance into support, and then went to a new all-time high. So, that's the difference in PayPal and SoFi. PayPal has been down 17% since the October low in 2022.
So has returned 478%. Big difference. Okay. And you can see it right there. So once again, you know, looking at this one on the fibs, if you're looking for the next levels up, assuming it's going to hold that 2728 area right there, next level up is going to end up being 34.91, 3839. And really, I think the target maybe even year end or somewhere in there is around 43 to 45.
Okay? So keep that in mind on SoFi. Now UPS, woo, look at this thing. We talked about that in Saturday's videos multiple times. I said, "Wow, this thing is starting to catch my interest because it's so overbought, but the setup's there with these trend lines, right? It's flagging and if it can get anything going and we know what happens when you get way down there and have a huge discount, right?
And there's a big fair value gap there." And it popped, right? And so again, you lay people off. The stock market loves it. Bad for the economy, good for the stock market. So this one got a big pop. Don't know if it's going to hold it or not, you know? But what knocked it down? The 200, baby. The 200.
Amen. You always got to know where that 200 is. Especially when these stocks are getting beat down like this because you can see it. Rejection. Rejection. Rejection. Oh, you thought you going to get out of here? Uh-uh. Rejection. Rejection. Rejection. And then bam. Big rejection. Just like my female rugby player.
Boom. She's the 200 moving average, baby. Bam. I mean, it's strong. It's powerful. You got to know where it is. One of the most powerful things on the chart. And you can see it. And so if it breaks also let you know though if it breaks through the 200 after all those rejections and makes that support it's going higher right and so you can start to move but you know if it gets through look between 105 108 now just to mention this I don't want to leave it out US signs $80 billion nuclear deal with Westinghouse Kamico and Brookfield okay so boom explosive move for Kamako there you go it reports on November 5th so big move up before you even get to earnings so we'll see how much of this it holds on, but it's been doing really well.
Okay, now crypto. This will affect the crypto stocks. Again, not a crypto channel, but you can see November is like the best month for BTC. So, there's going to be a move up. It should help if you're owning crypto stocks or even if you own crypto for that matter, but I'm really talking about for the stocks that is like your misters, your Coinbases, things of that nature.
And when you look, I mean, if it wasn't for that crazy move down we had where we had the largest crash in history or one day crash that is, I guess it was in October, it was moving up, right? I mean, it was it was up about 10% right there very quickly. And but m got that big move down. Now it's trying to creep its way back up.
And so if it can continue to run and get that November run like stocks and crypto normally do, that should help out you when it comes to those stocks if you're in them or not. But when you look over at Ethereum, you know, I mean, this one I would this three-wave from Sunday, it's in a bullish pennant, a bullish flag, and I think I found some other pattern it's in right now.
It's bullish. So, we'll see if that one finally moves back up after it closed above 4100. Uh, now looking at earnings tomorrow, Verizon, Boeing, CVS Health, Caterpillar, Etsy, Craft Hinds, ADP, got Philip 66, and then you got Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet, baby. Woo! Chipotle, Carvana, Service Now, Sprouts, Marta, Libre, and Starbucks.
So, that is a loaded earning sheet right there. And then on top of that, tomorrow we'll have the FOMC meeting. So, we'll get the rate cut. I don't know if it's 25 or 50, but listen for the balance sheet. That's what matters. Okay, guys. So, hope you got something out of it. That was a mouthful. Uh, please hit the like, subscribe button if you did.
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