Bill Gross: At some point, the Fed is going to have to rethink

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결론: 채권 가격 상승 여력과 미국 명목성장 둔화를 근거로 장기국채 중심 방어, 달러 회피, 중국 리스크 경계를 주장. 미국 10년물 금리 1.7%는 원금 안전 측면에서 양호하며, 연준이 향후 금리를 올리기 어렵고 오히려 인하나 양적완화 재개가 필요할 수 있다고 봄. 따라서 국채 가격 상승 가능성을 언급. 연준의 12월 0.25%p 인상은 글로벌 위험자산, 주가, 채권 가격에 큰 충격을 주므로 연준이 입장을 재고해야 할 시점이 온다고 전망. 금융주 대규모 매도의 배경은 순이자마진(NIM) 압박. 은행은 장단기 금리차가 넓어야 수익을 내는데 수익곡선이 압축되며 어려움. 에너지 관련 대출 부실 우려도 언급하며 크레디트스위스, 도이체방크 주가가 저점 부근이라고 언급. 미국 명목성장률이 4% 대비 2.9%로 낮아 향후 6~12개월 내 명목성장 침체 가능성. 실질성장은 당분기 유지 가능하나 물가 포함 명목성장이 중요하다고 강조. 안전자산 선호: 5~10년 만기 미국 국채는 플레인 바닐라 투자로 적합. 금은 시장 변동에 따라 움직임. 달러는 연준 인하 기대 시 엔, 유로, 일부 신흥국 대비 약세가 예상되어 현재 투자 비추천. 중국은 공식 성장률 6~7%보다 낮을 수 있고 과도한 부채 경제. 중국 성장 둔화 시 글로벌 성장이 제약되며 원자재·석유 관련 대상에 숏 관점 제시. 최근 몇 주간 중국 시장 및 성장 지표 주시 필요. 리스크: 중국 부채, 신흥국 부채, 에너지 관련 대출 부실이 2008년 서브프라임과 유사한 'big short part two' 가능성. 출연자 전망: Bill Gross는 국채 강세, 달러 약세, 중국 및 원자재 약세를 전반적으로 전망.

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01. what is the most respected name when it comes to bonds it's Bill gross he's now at Janice's Capital has been for quite some time so let's get right to it he's joining me now Bill I'm glad you're here on a day where the 10year yield is dropping so precipitously right off the bat I need to ask you is that the play that you would recommend simply to preserve Capital versus get any return on Capital at this point well certainly um even at 1.7% uh you know that's a a positive return and the question becomes you know do bond prices continue to go up reflecting lower yields or do they go down reflecting higher yields I I think the FED for instance in charge of the treasury market uh basically has to stay where it is or maybe even uh lower interest rates or have a renewed quantitative easing program at some point so a treasury 10year yield at 1.7% on a long-term Bond you know basically are relatively safe certainly from the standpoint of principle and I think from the standpoint of market prices will am I hearing you correctly you feel that it is possible the FED will be put in a position where it has to take back that quarter of a point rate hike it put in in December yeah I think at some point and it's going to be difficult for them to do that because they've been walking up um the expectations for several years in terms of raising interest rates but it's obvious that um on a global basis and the United States and the fed you know is the global Banker uh for the for the world it's obvious that an increase in interest rates has dramatic repercussions in terms of uh risk assets Equity prices and uh and Global bond prices and so uh you know I think at some point they're going to have to rethink uh what they've f for the past several years uh we've got this massive selloff in financials so a as they go into a tail spin what's at work here is it simply the belief that uh net interest margins there's so much pressure put on see Banks actually like when interest rates are higher for for our viewers who don't know that because then they can get more money on that but doesn't look like that's happening at all yeah I think that's right uh you know obviously they've extended loans and we don't know how many uh and how much you know to energy related commodity uh producers on a global basis not just here in the United States but uh you know European Banks as well I've heard mention that credit swi and Deutsche Bank are at relatively significant lows um but the net interest margins that you mentioned a bank in Investment Bank needs a very positive yield curve they need to borrow short and lend long at a decently wide spread in order to make the the margins and the money that they made historically and when they don't when the yield curve compresses and that margin doesn't exist then you know banks are um having problems and so it's it's it's a twoof front uh type of War at the moment bill I hate to invoke the RW because I'm an optimistic person but are we going to go into recession here in the United States not not because things are so horrific here but because globally we have a Slowdown that seems to be very tied to what we're doing here in the United States recession or not yeah I I I I think in the United States we can stay above the line on a real uh growth basis in this particular quarter maybe in the next quarter what's important to me and I think what should be important to Central Bankers is nominal growth they want not only real growth plus inflation and you know it's important in the United States to grow by at least 4% nominally that's real growth plus inflation and we've only been growing by 2.9% so I think it's fair to say that you know we might have a nominal growth recession over the next six to 12 months so bill um you said last week in your note you got to stick with plain vanilla if you're going to be safe let me throw these choices out to you the green back which seems to be doing relatively well treasuries or quality investment grade quality jump on is there anything in there or even that you would say Okay park it there that's plain enough vanilla for you no I I think treasuries are very plain vanilla in the five to 10 year maturity area you know gold is subject to the the whims of the the marketplace so to speak and to a a further decline in uh in interest rates U you know risk assets and even the dollar I I think at this point if if the market believes that the FED will stop raising interest rates and maybe at some point like I'm suggesting you know begin to move in the other direction then the dollar will be weak relative to the Yen relative to the euro and even relative to some of the stronger Emerging Market country so I wouldn't be investing in the dollar at the moment okay yeah that would be counterproductive If the Fed has to put the brakes on and slam it which you say it appears they will have to you're saying stay out of the dollar uh I have to then turn to just the worry overall for you what worries you the most that people aren't watching but should bill will I think it's China and you and others have talked about China OD infin item for the last 6 to 12 months but you know what is the growth rate in China they they claim it's six to 7% you know I'm I'm suggesting that perhaps it's much less than that and China is a highly levered economy with too much debt relative to uh you know to their cost of funds and so you know I'd be looking at China they've got a week's holiday here where we can't exactly look at their markets but China is the engine for the global economy at the moment and if China can't have a significantly positive growth and the rest of the world has problems uh Phill you know we were talking in the break and you said this almost looks like the big short part two how so that scared me that made me worry yeah I think in a way and and not not from the the standpoint of a Layman crash but from the standpoint of uh of too much debt you know back in Layman days the subprimes there was too much Mortgage Debt and the cost of that debt you know as the FED raised interest rates to 5 and a qu% you know was was too high I think what's happened now is that there's too much debt on a global basis in Emerging Markets uh even in the uh United States to some extent and the cost of the Deb debt you know basically is too high relative to what can be managed or what can be covered and and so to that extent it's uh it's a big short part twoo and and and and what does that mean well U you know you should have short in China 6 months ago and all of the associated areas related to it Commodities oil anything that China wanted uh you you want to be short of do you I'm sorry just to clarify do you still feel that way would you be shorting China here well I certainly wouldn't be investing in it and I'd be watching as it just suggested you know how fast they can really grow because if if China can't grow at four or 5% like the market expects you know then the rest of the world you know simply can't grow as well and some of the the bad loans will become more obvious to energy companies and commodity based companies which is what China you know basically has produced in terms of a bubble uh type of atmosphere so i' I'd be very Leery and I'd watch uh China over the next few weeks to the extent that that's possible okay so stay out of the dollar the FED may have to reverse and cut rates there's a lot that just was said in this interview that we we really appreciate your perspective because you've been you've been a market participant for a long time with are here thanks so much Bill Bill gross anytime Bill gross of Janice capital