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2016년 시장 전반에 큰 변동성이 예상되며 중앙은행의 통제력이 약화되고 있다는 것이 핵심 결론이다. 중앙은행과 부채: 선진국 전반의 과도한 부채와 주요 중앙은행들의 대규모 통화 발행이 문제이며, 이 때문에 2016~2017년이 좋지 않을 것이라고 봄. 중앙은행들이 시장을 떠받치려 하지만 결국 고통은 피할 수 없다고 주장. 미국 금리 인상과 증시: 12월 연준의 25bp 인상은 이미 예상된 것이라 충격의 직접 원인은 아니라고 봄. 2015년 뉴욕증시는 하락 종목이 상승 종목의 두 배였고 소수 대형주만 지수를 떠받쳤다고 언급. 향후 연준과 QE: 연준이 금리를 계속 올리기 어렵고, 시장 하락 시 한두 번 인상 후 다시 시장 구제에 나설 것으로 예상. 명칭만 바꾼 QE가 재개될 수 있다고 봄. 중국: 2008년과 달리 중국은 부채가 크게 늘어 세계를 구제할 여력이 줄었다고 평가. 인프라 투자는 경쟁력을 높였으나 부동산 과잉과 일부 파산은 불가피하다고 봄. 그럼에도 중국이 이탈리아보다는 낫다고 언급. 교역과 원자재: 미국은 중국의 저가 제품에 의존하지만 베트남 등 대체국이 성장 중. 중국과 교역하는 기업은 중국 경기 악화를 체감할 것. 유가는 바닥을 다지는 과정으로 보며 대폭락 시 함께 급락 가능성 언급. 귀금속과 달러: 본인은 금·은을 보유하지만 현재 추가 매수는 하지 않음. 은이 금보다 고점 대비 낙폭이 커 상대적으로 매력적이라고 언급. 달러는 최대 포지션이며 안전자산 선호로 단기 강세 후 과열 시 매도할 수 있다고 봄. 리스크와 조언: 2016년은 혼란스러울 것이며 많은 사람이 살아남지 못할 것이라 경고. 지식을 갖추고 걱정하며 대비하라는 것이 조언. 출연 및 발언 정리: 진행자(Kenneth) 발언은 제외. 발언 전체는 예측 중심이며 개별 종목에 대한 직접 추천은 없음.
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a lot of debt has built up in China in the last eight years so they too will suffer more than they did last time and they will not be able to bail out the world as much as they did last time we're all going to suffer I can think of very few places that won't suffer maybe North Korea won't suffer maybe Cuba but most people are going to suffer the next time around the one man who helped build and oversee Newmont mining's most profitable m is on the cusp of delivering a new cash flowing Mining Company to North America with a 70 Cent a share price Target from europacific Capital this 25 cent a share company is 35% owned by one of the most successful businessmen in America learn more at Crush thestreet.com wealth hello everyone and welcome in crush thestreet.com I'm joined today with a very special guest his name is Jim Rogers he's a legendary investor and he's been on our show before and he's a favorite on our show he's a a really big name an author and uh I'm just you know honored to have him on the show and I'm looking forward to talking to him about the the severe situation that we're seeing in our markets the volatility that we're seeing around the world uh so Jim Rogers thanks for joining me today I'm delighted to be here Kenneth Jim uh as I said we're seeing some major volatility going into 2016 um are we seeing the central banks lose control of the grip they had on the stock markets right here right now in 2016 uh yes if if not this month uh soon 2016 and 2017 will not be good Kenneth partly because of the mistakes the central banks have made in the past they're going to do their best to hold things up as you can see they already are the bank of Japan and others but unfortunately I'm afraid that we're going to all have to pay the price I'm not particularly happy about it but they've made a lot of mistakes in the last eight year actually the last 18 or 20 years but they've certainly made a lot of mistakes which we pay for was this was this just uh a reaction to the the the the correction we saw in the ear 2000s the the tech bubble the the do bubble and all of this you know expansion of the money supply uh lowering of interest rates is all of this coming to a head uh is that what you were talking about the last 18 years the um what we're dealing with now is the system essentially overwhelming and uh uh collapsing based on the inflated bubble that they've been trying to inflate since uh the early 2000s well it actually goes back further than that the the root cause of course is the gigantic debt which has built up in the developed world in the past few decades several years and the American Central Bank starting with Allen Greenspan has not done nothing but print money every time there's a problem that of course all of this compounds and accumulates and of course this is the first time kennethon recorded history that we've had all central banks all major Central Banks printing a lot of money the Japanese the Europeans the Americans the British it's the first time where everybody is printing a lot of money at the same time everybody's building up a lot of debt the world talks about austerity but no countryes going to austerity every country has higher debt now than last year and they'll have higher debt next year a lot of things coming together in the last eight years the central banks have printed money and held everything together but whether it falls apart this year or next it's going to fall apart it has to do you think the the stock market volatility that we're seeing especially you know going right into January was a direct response to the 25 basis point rate hike that we saw the Federal Reserve due in December or was it just coincidence and uh bound to happen well everybody in the world knew that interest rates were going higher I mean if there was anybody surprised rised I don't know where they've been living for a while but did it shock the markets I I anybody who was shocked by that should be shocked because it was broadcast over and over and over again maybe that was the what the wakeup call or maybe that made people realize oh my gosh this really is going to happen but it's coincidence more than anything else if you ask me the situation Kenneth is the rates had been going up anyway uh in the market and then the Federal Reserve came along and followed the market as they often do I guess this was a wakeup call you know the American Stock Market was actually down last year it was if you go to the New York Stock Exchange there were twice as many stocks down as up I repeat on the New York Stock Exchange in 2015 there were twice as many stocks down as up so we've been having problems for a while the averages have been supported by you know eight or 10 stocks that never go down or that never did go down but the real Market was down last year this has been going on a while is that typical for the the markets uh the overall stock markets to just be carried by a handful of companies well it's happened often in the last two or three decades and it's actually the way markets work you usually have at the end of a bull market a rising market a narrowing of the of the stocks that are going up they're usually the high quality names or the the hot stocks of the era whatever it happens to be but it always happens that at the end of a move you have fewer and fewer stocks going up and then of course everybody realizes oh my gosh this is over and then it collapses nothing new about it is the way markets have been working for for decades or maybe even hundreds of years right right so the FED making their next decision coming up on their forward guidance to continue to raise rates do you think they're actually going to be able to do that especially in the face of all this stock market turmoil and and Global turmoil do you think they'll they'll do that to the markets continue to raise rates and attempt to get further and further away from zero you can see why we don't need central banks that do Mo that causing more problems than good especially cumulatively I suspect they will not raise rates if they do it will not be more than one time because the markets are going to be going down and then the when the markets go down everybody calls the central banks and says oh my gosh you must save civilization the central banks are C certainly in the US are made up by bureaucrats and academics they don't know anything that's why they work for the government and so they will panic and then they will do whatever they can to save the markets it's artificial it won't work just as it's been artificial for the last long time certainly eight years no it's not going to work there comes a time when no matter how much money you have the market has more money you know if you ask Obama or or some of these other uh Talking Heads in the media you know QE was successful and I I'll say that in quotation marks um you think they'll just revert back to more QE since our experience with it you know inflated the stock market inflated real estate and now they're pointing to a lower unemployment rate do you think QE is just more palatable uh for the markets and uh an easier thing for the central banks to resort to rather than actually manipulating the the interest rate well I don't know if they'll even call it QE in the future Kenneth I mean they've called it they've done what three or four qes it's a little embarrassing to come up with another QE they'll probably call it I don't know cupcakes or spaghetti who knows what they'll call it uh to disguise it they're going to try to do everything they can uh printing more money or lowering interest rates or buying more assets they're going to do whatever they can but unfortunately as I said they're com to down but no matter how much PR no matter how much whitewashing you you use the market knows that this is over and we're not going to play this game anymore so Jim I I want to get your thoughts on China uh China was in the news uh at the beginning of the year you know with their uh moves with the stock market but but I wanted to just get your thoughts is China going to suffer less than the US during this economic collapse uh yes mainly because China has less debt and in fact they have big assets but Kenneth in 2008 when the world had problems China had a lot of money saved up and then they started spending that money this time around China itself has debt a lot of debt has built up in China in the last eight years so they will suffer more than they did last time and they will not be able to bail out the world as much as they did last time we're all going to suffer I can think of very few places that won't suffer maybe North Korea won't suffer maybe Cuba but most people are going to suffer the next time around did China with all their building that they did uh you know building out their infrastructure uh with their their what people are calling ghost cities um are they going to continue to build out this infrastructure or will China just convert to a more consumer economy since so much of their uh construction has been done well infrastructure in go cities are two different things they have certainly a lot of the money they spent in the last decade has been for infrastructure which builds their competitive Advantage you know building highways and railroads and airports which is what a lot of what what they've been doing makes them more competitive in the future the US in 2008 started spending things on like bureaucrats we made sure the bureaucrats didn't lose their jobs Etc well the Chinese have increased their competitive Advantage with their spending whereas we and other countries have in increased our competitive disadvantage by what we spent our money on we just raised debt but did nothing for comp future competitiveness now in the future China's I'm sure will spend more money on infrastructure remember China's infrastructure has been in serious decline for three or 400 years and they've got a billion 300 million people so there's a lot that they can do infrastructure wise there has been too much speculation in property and real estate in China and you will probably see some people go bankrupt in the real estate business going going forward the government has said they're going to let people go bankrupt I hope they mean it so you're going to see problems in China uh but you're going to see worse Pro I'd rather be in China than in Italy Kenneth in the next the next downturn I'd rather be in China than a lot of places but China will suffer Jim is the US dependent on China producing cheap Goods still well everybody likes to get cheap Goods had you rather buy a cheap car with good quality or an expensive car with the same quality of course you want to buy a cheap car a cheap television a cheap everything with the same quality so yes China has an advantage but other people are learning you're starting to see Vietnam manufacturing competitively and other countries mear will probably come into the market in the foreseeable future I mean even North Korea starting to produce Goods which are being sold into the market the World Market but China's dominant obviously and as we have problems China will certainly continue to be a manufacturing base but they're going to have their own problems too you know historically uh China has supplied cheap Goods for the US and the US has been dependent on that um as the US declines uh what do you suspect this transition will look like I mean is China dependent on the US purchasing uh the cheap Goods that they offer well we're all interconnected now the China's the second largest economy in the world America's the largest economy Europe as a whole is an even bigger economy than the US Japan is the third largest single econ but we all trade with each other now it's not a question of who depends on who we all depend on each other and if you're a Chinese company that does business with Walmart in the next few years you're going to know something's wrong some Chinese companies will not suffer at all I mean China's hard horribly polluted and they're spending a lot of money to clean up China if you're in the pollution business clean up business in China you won't know if Europe falls into the sea you won't care because you're too busy but if you deal with Walmart you're going to know something's wrong in China likewise if you're a a mining company or a company which does business with China you're G to some parts of the Chinese economy you're going to know something's wrong I mean Korea does a lot of trading with China so does Japan so do a lot of people so we're all in it together now Jim what are your current thoughts on precious metals uh we're we're seeing at at the moment we're doing this interview uh Silver's in the $14 range uh gold is above 1,00 um are we seeing a turnaround are you optimistic with what has been going on with precious medals over the last couple weeks well I I own gold and silver and have forever um I I have noticed that they've rallied I'm not buying I'm not a buyer I suspect another there'll be another opportunity to buy gold and silver sometimes in the foreseeable future if that doesn't happen don't worry I own plenty of gold and silver are you still thinking that with the stock markets collapsing uh that could be bullish for the US dollar in the short term well my largest currency position Kenneth is the US dollar uh and has been for some time as you as I think you know uh the US dollar is a terribly flawed currency the US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world now so we got a lot of problems as the debt continues to go higher but the reason it's my largest position is because first of all everybody else has problems people aren't going to rush into the Yen or the Euro or something uh people could perceive the US dollar as a safe haven it's not but people think it is which is why I own a lot of US dollars as the turmoil gets worse in the next couple of years many people are going to rush into the US dollar US dollar is going to get overpriced might even turn into a bubble depending on how bad the the turmoil is uh at which point I hope I'm smart enough to sell my US Dollars and who knows where I'll put it back to gold and precious metals often when the dollar is strong gold goes down or is weak so if that scenario works the way it might you'll see dollars going up gold and everything else going down I hope I would be smart enough at some point to sell my dollars put them into gold or the Chinese Ren mby or who knows where whatever goes down the most and whatever is most attractive at that time well you're an intelligent investor and you've been very successful with your calls um Jim I just want to get your thoughts on oil we're looking at $30 oil at the moment is oil starting to look like a a solid investment or is it coming to that point where it's becoming attractive at least well the word solid in the investment World worries me nothing is solid nothing is safe seen everything that's safe turned into a disaster in my career and read about it and likewise solid uh yes oil has been going down for a long time and oil is is probably in the process of making a bottom but Kenneth if we suddenly see a huge collapse somewhere everything will Spike down you know that's how you make bottoms everything spikes down together and so oil could have who knows where the bottom could be but go but oil is certainly making in the process of making a complicated bottom as we speak and just to conclude Jim are you more bullish on Silver at the moment or gold uh considering their ratios and Supply demand all the different aspects that relate to them are you more bullish on one or the other well I own both uh I I if I had to buy one today I would buy silver rather than gold I'm buying neither Kenneth I I hasten to tell you I'm buying neither but silver is certainly down more from its all-time highs than gold so historically silver looks better but I'm not buying either at the moment and uh uh for the audience if you were to give one piece of advice here in 2016 uh in conclusion sir uh what would that be be knowledgeable be worried and be prepared because it's going to be a mess a lot of us aren't going to survive I hope I do survive I hope you do too and I hope all your listeners do sir I really appreciate you coming on the show today are you going to be speaking uh anywhere soon that you'd like to announce to our listeners oh I I'm speaking I'm speaking a lot of times I don't I cannot remember Kenneth it's on my website which is www.jim rogers.com but we'll be sure to have that up for for everyone everyone uh Jim Rogers uh again sir it was an honor to have you on the show I really do appreciate you coming on and sharing your knowledge with us um thank thank you so much my pleasure Kenneth I hope we can do it again sometime
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