저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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한줄결론: 짐 로저스는 코로나 충격이 역대 최악의 약세장으로 이어질 수 있으며, 반등은 있더라도 장기 약세를 전제로 금·은과 달러 보유를 권함. [시장 전망] - 바이러스는 1930년대식 장기 불황보다는 일시적 충격으로 보나, 현재 약세장은 평생 겪어본 최악일 수 있다고 봄. - 2008년 이후 각국 부채와 통화 발행이 급증해 구조적 취약성이 커졌다고 진단. - 이후 단기 반등 가능성은 언급했으나 약세장이 재개될 것으로 예상. [통화 정책과 부양책] - 미국·유럽·일본 등의 대규모 돈 풀기는 생산성 확충 없이 이뤄져 장기적으로 인플레이션과 체제 부담을 키운다고 경고. - 돈이 결국 금융자산이나 실물자산으로 흘러들 것이라고 봄. - 유가 급락으로 현재 물가 지표는 눌려 있으나 나중에 다시 오를 수 있다고 봄. [금·은] - 본인은 작년 여름 이후 금을 다시 매수 중이며 은도 매입 중. - 모든 투자자가 보험 차원에서 금·은을 일정 부분 보유해야 한다고 권함. - 장기적으로 가격 상승 여지를 보나 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않음. [미국 달러] - 달러는 세계 최대 채무국이라 근본적으로 건전하지 않다고 평가. - 위기 시 안전자산 수요로 달러가 단기 강세를 보일 수 있어 현재 달러를 많이 보유 중. - 다만 과열되면 버블이 될 수 있으므로 그때는 팔아야 한다고 봄. [미국 주식] - 미국 증시는 과열 상태였고 약세장 전환은 필요했다고 봄. - 시장 대부분이 붕괴했으며 현재 약세장이 평생 최악이 될 수 있다고 예상. [중국·아시아] - 아시아는 중국·한국·싱가포르·대만 등에서 방역을 비교적 잘했다고 평가. - 다만 아시아의 주요 고객인 미국·유럽의 경기 둔화가 아시아 경제에 타격을 줄 것이라고 봄. - 세계 최대 경제권인 유럽과 2위 미국의 상황이 더 중요하다고 언급. [출연자 리스크·조건] - 정책 당국은 단기 선거 일정 때문에 장기 부작용을 가볍게 여긴다고 비판. - 시장 반등 여부와 시기를 확신하지 못한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hello everyone and welcome in to crush the street calm I got a very important interview and update for everyone today we've heard people describe this virus as the pin to the bubble understood and point well-taken but this is more than just a pin air traffic is down 90% we have what 2 billion people around the world plus in some form of quarantine the US has expanded social distancing practices until April 30th the Olympics are postponed schools are closed for the year and now we're on the verge of the most expensive central bank and government response to an economic crisis the world has ever seen so I want everyone to visit crush the street calm forward-slash virus and crush the street calm forward-slash gold for very important reports regarding this you're gonna really enjoy that but without any further ado we have Jim Rogers on the line legendary investor someone who co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age 37 he's an author of several books and is also a financial commentator worldwide he's based in Singapore Rogers is the chairman of Rogers Holdings and belen interests Inc Jim Rogers is on the line with us today returning guests thank you Jim for coming on the show with me I am delighted to be I'm glad we both survived so far well I must say that what we are seeing globally feels almost like a movie in fact we have both mercy class Hospital naval ships in Los Angeles and New York this really does feel like a war with everything I said in the intro what are your initial thoughts on this current pandemic crisis well there's no question that there is a virus out there somewhere and anybody who gets it doesn't like it especially if you die people have died so it can be horrible on the other hand I would point out to you that 40,000 people die every year in America from the flu so it's not as though this is some kind of nightmare we haven't seen before we've seen this and worse in Asia they seem to have gotten much better under control and we have in the US or in Europe so it looks as though it's going to pass someday maybe even sooner than we expect and if so I guess we're all going to survive I hope so so what does it say with all of these businesses that are living hand-to-mouth people living hand-to-mouth globally that cannot withstand a closure of a few weeks a couple months without having the mother of all bailouts or a collapse situation well Kenneth I would also quickly point out that the cure can be worse than the disease you know in the u.s.
I'm an American citizen and voter like you are and most of your viewers you know in America we've spent stag we are spending staggering amounts of money and printing huge amounts of money the politicians we all want to be elected and the elections in November so they don't really care too much about the long term I just want to get through November well unfortunately you and I and my children are gonna live a lot longer than that and this is not going to leave the world in great shape down the road not just the u.s.
some of the European countries or the Japanese oh my gosh the Japanese is just as bad so some people in the end are probably going to be worse off we don't want anybody to fail or lose everything on the other hand we do have to worry about I and II have to worry about the long term absolutely and there really is an issue with these bailouts governments are attempting to create wealth through these handouts but at the same time shut down global productivity and when you have this flood of new currency hitting the system without any productivity being created you know what does that ultimately do to the system well if all you had to do was print money it'd be a lot of countries that be rich right now many people have tried this in the past unfortunate doesn't work in the long term you're exactly right you have to build up productivity you have to build up investment and sending out a lot of checks I mean by heaven yes envy one to send us all checks but in the end you have to do a lot more than that if you want to build the competitiveness competitiveness of an economy and the productivity of an economy as I said November is only six or seven months away these guys only care about November they don't care about 2030 so where does this inflation this monetary printing surface does it ultimately go back into the stock market I mean we're seeing stocks collapse but you know where does the fallout the printing of this money ultimately enter the system is it in precious metals is it in hard assets is it in real estate where where does this flow well ultimately it will probably end up in financial at some kind of asset you're exactly right yes we're all gonna spend people are gonna get the thousand dollars are going to spend it undoubtedly that's going to be useful for some people but in in the end this is not building new factories it's not building new roads it's not building new schools or product at productive as a competitive assets I should say so in the end historically it's a wound up leading to more inflation at the moment the price of oil is collapsed for many reasons and since oil is the main ingredient in inflation is holding and reflection down and we all think everything is okay and maybe oil is going to stay at $20 about but I would suspect not and then in the end prices are going to go higher again we have quite the situation happening in precious metals physical is very hard to come by you have a lot of delay right now the bullying dealers I speak to you know everyone's out or you know very very backlogged on their orders u.s.
mints mints around the world through the shutdown or delayed as well mines are shutting down globally because of the virus what sort of recipe is taking place in precious metals at the moment and does it have you bullish on on gold and silver well I own gold and silver III I've been buying gold again since last summer didn't buy gold for silver for several years but now I certainly am buying gold and silver again historically when prices when things like this happen and people lose confidence and money and in government's they buy gold and Sewer many academics that will tell them they should who cares who cares what academics and bureaucrats say you know all of us peasants believe in gold and silver we know that for thousands of years gold and silver have saved us so all of us peasants are gonna be buying gold you know throughout centuries most people all of us peasants anyway have known that gold the silver is holds its value eventually academics and bureaucrats may say don't buy gold don't buy silver let them say it okay I'm a thousand I'm a peasant like you have like many other peasants and I understand it gold and silver will be fine in the end is there any sort of upside that you see in gold and silver that you're looking for or just holding it as insurance in these volatile times and what is your expectation for for gold and silver in this environment or solid everybody should own some gold and silver as an insurance policy if nothing else we all have fire insurance we hope we never use our fire insurance we hope we never ever use it but if we need our fire insurance we glad I have it so that's what people should look at go until now if you get the timing right you can make a lot of money in gold and silver as well gold went down has been going down since 2000 seven but now it's probably going to go up again if you ask me so you can make a lot of money in gold and silver if you make the time but again everybody should own some as an insurance policy if nothing else and it may be that the timing is about to be right again what you should do is ask Kenneth at crush the street about the timing but you should own some no matter what Jim what is your expectation Oh in your sentiment towards the US dollar obviously getting a lot of traction right now in this crashing market environment you know reserve world reserve currency at the moment the big the big the big dog on the block whatnot you know what are your thoughts on the US dollar at the moment especially with all of this printing that is going on I mean where is this fallout gonna ultimately hit I own stacks of US dollars of not not because the US dollar is the sound currency in fact the US dollar with the u.s.
is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world so it is fundamentally very very unsound and getting worse every day what Canada for whenever there's turmoil people look for a safe haven and for historic reasons many people think of the US dollars as a payment so I own a lot of it during this turmoil depending on how bad it gets dollars gonna go up a lot it's going to get overpriced it might even turn into a bubble I hope it doesn't turn into a bubble cuz it does I have to sell my dollars you always have to sell a bubble so I own it now because people are afraid of everything else but if you look at the competitors I mean the Bank of Japan the guy goes there every morning it cranks up the printing presses and prints as much as he can he said his quote is we will print unlimited unlimited amounts of money in Europe they're doing in England everywhere every country in the world even developing economy now pruning a lot of money so the usdollar wah is terribly terribly unsound in people's minds it's a safe place to be so I own a lot to Jim getting close to the end of this interview I have two more questions to ask you I want to ask you about the US stock market you talked about selling bubbles obviously we've seen it correct quite a bit lost trillions of dollars in terms of market cap is it still a bubble do you think that this grind that we're seeing in the economy is going to continue to put downward pressure on global stocks US stocks in this environment yeah it wasn't just the US mark they went down a lot you know markets all over the world totally collapsed I don't know any market that didn't collapse so yes the US now the US was at its all-time high and US was probably the worst Bowl you know the three months before it stopped January it went straight up it was amazing how much it shot up there for a while it's been over 10 years since we've had a bear market in the US so for many reasons it was time for a beer mug it's the longest bull market had an American history so yes a very overpriced lots of exuberance and confidence so it was time for a bear market whenever there's a bear market there's always a reason and in this case the one that's in the press anyway is the virus and the virus is certainly certainly now having a huge effect on world economies but it's all markets that are collapsing Kenneth's not just the US and I would suspect it would do overdue for a rally it looks like we're having a nice rally normally after you have a bank panic and a total collapse things stop and rally for a while looks like that's happening is this a dead cat bounce false rally in your opinion or are we going into a 1930s style long depression bear market watch crush the street Kenneth what's wrong with you aren't you listening if you ask me it's going to be the worst in my lifetime and I know I'm older than you you know in 2008 we had a serious problem around the world in financial markets because of too much debt Kenneth since then that everywhere everywhere has gone up by huge amounts in the u.s.
we're going up over a trillion dollars a year and everywhere else is doing the same so we're going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime I would suspect and I'm not very good at market Tommy I would suspect we're gonna have a very nice rally now politicians all over the world are doing everything they can to get through the next elections so I'm sure we'll have a nice rally we had terrible despondency terrible negativity there's something called the VIX when she went to the highest level in recorded history we showed huge pessimism so I suspect we're gonna have a nice rally after the rally you know we'll say a few months down the road I would expect a bear market to continue to resume I should say Jimmy I'd be remiss not to ask you about China in this environment how large of a setback is this coronavirus gonna be on the Chinese economy I know you're very bullish when it comes to Asia what are your thoughts on China and you know the exposures of the economic vulnerabilities that this virus is having globally as you pointed out well it's hit China first China was surprised that you know was coming nobody who was coming you know it's it's embarrassing to me as an American in America we had three months notice it was coming and we were totally totally unprepared well the Asians want to prepare because they didn't know it was coming but we had three months notice and you know even two weeks ago we still didn't have test kits we didn't have anything we didn't have respirators despite three months notice so the agent seemed to have done a better job of containing at Korea Singapore where I live Taiwan some countries have done if you read the press a much better job China seems have gotten these things under control after a month or two it's not great but still is better than what's happening in the US but we're still floundering around wondering what are we gonna do next so I would suspect that this is being better contained in Asia and Asia has all China has already started opening restaurants and factories again as if many other places so it seems that Asia's done a better but a better job but so what their biggest customers are customers of the US and Europe Europe in the u.s.
are just now closing down and just now being effective so it doesn't matter if you're in good shape if your customers are not in good shape you're gonna suffer too so while Asia seems to have done a better job now despite being shocked and surprised it the rest of the world you know the largest economy in the world is Europe the second-largest the US so you have to worry about those guys more than the small countries well you heard it everyone from the man himself he said listen to crush the Street Jim Rogers thank you so much for coming on the show with me today and sharing your wisdom with us if people want to learn more about you and the work that you put out please let them know a little bit more about where they can go and what they can expect to find I don't have a I don't have anything to say okay this is always fun to talk to you thank you appreciate your time sir
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