저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 하워드 막스는 가격이 충분히 떨어졌다고 보고 신중하게 분할 매수를 권하지만, 경기 전망은 낙관보다 비관 쪽에 무게를 둔다. 하이일드 채권 시장: 에너지를 제외한 미국 하이일드 채권 수익률은 약 3.5%에서 현재 약 10% 수준으로 크게 올랐고, 가격이 상당히 하락해 매수 환경이 훨씬 좋아졌다고 평가한다. 매수 전략: 지금이 바닥이라고 확신할 수는 없지만 자산이 충분히 싸졌기 때문에 상당한 규모의 매수를 이미 진행했고 계속할 것이라고 말한다. 다만 가격이 더 떨어지면 추가 매수하고, 전액을 지금 쓰거나 전혀 쓰지 않는 것 모두 옳지 않다고 본다. 경기 전망: 낙관적 강세 시나리오(2개월 내 정상화, 2조 달러 유동자금, 저금리와 저유가로 1920년대식 회복)와 비관적 약세 시나리오(실업률 20% 이상, 수년간 회복 지연, 수요 충격과 봉쇄 효과, 유가 충격) 중 자신은 비관 쪽에 더 가깝다고 답한다. 코로나 질병과 경제 영향, 막대한 부양책의 장기 효과에 대한 우려를 밝힌다. 리스크 및 접근법: 비관 시나리오가 더 가능성이 높더라도 긍정적 결과의 확률도 상당하므로 하락 위험을 방어하면서 상승에도 대비해야 한다. 흑백 논리가 아닌 중도적 사고를 시청자에게 권한다. 출연자 전망: 경기 회복 속도에 대해 예측가가 아니라고 밝히며 명확한 V자 회복은 현실적으로 보지 않는 신중한 입장을 보인다.
다듬은 글
I personally think that securities are low enough to buy a little somebody says to me is this the time to buy I say no this is a time to buy good time to buy suggest certain see the time to buy suggests we're at the bottom I never would believe that I know when we're at the bottom but I know things have gotten a lot cheaper and it's reasonable to do some buying if it goes lower to do more buying so I would never as I said in another memo there's a there's no argument for spending all your money now but there's also no argument for not spending any of your money now I would do something a lot of it in between how would it stand Murphy here in Singapore if now is the time to do some buying what's on your shopping list what are you looking at right now well oaktree is a credit investor for the most part we don't invest in the stock market where we buy loans bonds notes and that kind of thing and you know in our world things have gotten considerably cheaper six six weeks ago maybe two months ago high-yield bonds in the US for example yielded if you leave out of energy which had which had very high yields because of the risks but if you leave out energy high-yield bond yield at about three and a half percent today they yield close to ten so you know these are the kinds of things we're buying they're down substantially in price and and we think this is a much better environment for buying can you put a value on how much you've deployed into the market given the significant declines that we've seen throughout the first quarter how much money have you put back in at this point you know I don't really want to say because I don't want to incite anybody we're buying massive amounts and they should - we've done a considerable amount of buying and we will continue the pace you know we try to behave moderately and that's what we've been doing and we will continue I also wanted to get your take on where we're at in the cycle right now a lot of investors are looking to experts like you for guidance on what's going to happen next and I know in one of your most recent notes you pulled out two tweets that caught your attention and I wanted to flag them to our viewers as well they offer a ball case and a bear case so let's start with the bull case first this user on Twitter suggested that everything's going to open up in the next six weeks Americans are going to bootstrap the economy is going to go back to normal within six months there's two trillion dollars in dry powder low gas prices interest rates on the floor and that's going to be pouring fuel back into the US economy this user said the Roaring Twenties mean the 2020s now but he also offered a bear case as well saying unemployment could go beyond 20% it's going to take years to recover there's a huge demand shock and the effects of the lockdown on businesses as well as the oil shock are going to create depression light conditions so how long do you expect it will take Howard for the US economy to recover and is a v-shaped recovery a realistic expectation at this point where do you sit bull case or bear case well first of all I'm not much of a forecaster and I'm proud to say I'm not an economist I am a congenital worrier I believe that my clients pay me to worry and and I would say that you know I'm a little more partial to the negative case than the positive I am you see I am worried about what we don't know about the disease and the economic impact and I am worried about the long-term effect of trillions and trillions of stimulus so you know I lean toward the negative and I'm cautious but at the same time remember Dan I'm recommending some buying because I think things have gotten cheap enough and the other thing is and this is really important for your listeners when we say for negative that doesn't mean we're sure it's gonna be bad that means there's a possibility it's going to be bad maybe it's more likely to be bad than good but there's still a substantial probability then it'll be good so we have to take action to protect against the risk of a decline so we should also take action to prepare for the possibility of arise and so my approach is not black or white buy or sell and I would urge your readers to think in moderate listeners to think in moderate terms and not categorical
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