Marc Faber predicting stock market plunge of 40% or more

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Marc Faber는 미국 주식시장, 특히 나스닥 고평가와 기술주 주도 약화를 근거로 급락 가능성을 경고한다. 시장 상황: 6월 9일 전후로 Nvidia 약 15%, Netflix 약 10%, Apple 약 9% 하락 등 고flying 기술주들이 3일 만에 큰 폭 조정을 받았고, 일부는 회복하지 못했다. 나스닥 구조 문제: 현재 나스닥이 2000년 고점을 넘었지만, 지수를 끌어올리는 종목 상당수(Google 2004년, Netflix 2002년, Facebook 2012년, Salesforce 2004년 상장 등)는 2000년 당시 지수에 포함되지도 않았다. 반면 Intel, Yahoo는 여전히 2000년 고점의 약 절반 수준이다. 기술주 리스크: 기술 산업은 혁신과 신규 경쟁자에 취약하며, 현재 주도주들이 5~10년 뒤에도 사업을 유지할지 불확실하다고 지적. 주도주 변화: 트럼프 당선(작년 11월) 이후 상승을 주도한 하이테크주(Amazon, Netflix, Tesla 등)가 오늘 동반 하락했고, 리더십 교체가 일어났거나 일어나고 있을 수 있다. 유럽 선호: 올해 미국 달러 기준 유럽 주요 시장은 영국을 제외하고 16~20% 상승해 미국을 상회했다. 유럽 기업의 이익률은 미국보다 낮지만 회복 조짐이 있고 밸류에이션이 낮아 미국 주식보다 선호한다. 유럽 종목 예시: Dan Loeb가 대규모 지분을 보유한 스위스 식품기업 Nestle는 배당수익률 약 2.7%로 합리적 가격이며, 스위스 10년물 국채는 마이너스 금리다. 미국 국채는 여전히 2% 이상으로 상대적 안전마진이 있다. 결론: 40% 이상 폭락 가능성을 경고하며, 미국 고평가 기술주 대신 유럽 저평가 종목과 안전자산 선호를 권고한다.

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01. you you kind of scared me recently and when you wrote that you could see stocks falling 40% from present levels in other words roughly cutting what we've got right now in almost half why are you so bearish well first of all we had on June nth a break and it's interesting that uh the week before I had uh come out and said that these Bank stocks and related stocks like Nidia could easily drop 10% in one or two days Nidia was down 15% Inay on June 9th Netflix was down 10% Apple was down 9% in 3 days and of and some have recovered but some others have not recovered there's another question that I think many investors Overlook uh they say look the NASDAQ is at a new oldtime house it's exceeding the high in the year 2000 but it's driven by stocks that were not even in the index in the year 2000 in other words uh Google went public in August 2004 Netflix in 2002 Facebook in 2012 Salesforce in 2004 these stocks were not even in the index in 2000 and stocks like Intel and Yahoo they're still about half as high as they were in 2000 technology is vulnerable to Innovation and new competitors and we don't know whether the current uh stocks the F stocks and related stocks that have driven the index higher is the typical stock hasn't gone up a lot where these stocks will still be in business in five or 10 years time so you doubts about that sort of but Mark a lot of people look at how much the market has run up since Donald Trump's election last November and uh how technology particular has benefited virtually all sectors have are are you saying that the Trump effect is over now um or what well not necessarily what I'm saying is if you look for instance at today's market action the leaders that were pushing the market higher this year like the Hightech stocks that I just mentioned Amazon uh Netflix also Tes lines of all these stocks were down today and even if someone is very bullish on stocks I think a change in leadership could have occur or has occurred you look at European markets as an example all the European markets have essentially outperformed the us this year in US dollar terms except for the foot in Britain because the pound was so weak but other markets are up between 16 and 20% and you see that Trend continue to play out you see that Trend continue to play out and if so then uh what are you buying in this environment what do you recommend investors listening to you now do well I I would rather buy European stocks than US Stocks because the profit mark in Europe are much lower than in the US but they seem to be recovering and the News out of Europe is not exactly brilliant don't misunderstand me but it's starting to improve somewhat so I think that European stocks given their lower valuation than US Stocks I mean Dan L he bought the big stakes in Nestle the swis uh food company uh this kind of stuff are reasonably priced when you compare them to the prevailing interest rate in Europe in the case of nestle yield 2.7% in Switzerland the 10 years bond has a negative interest so you have some cion of safety in the US the treasury is still still over 2% all right Mark uh thanks I think it's always good tapping your fine brain Mark faor the Gloom boom and doom report he's one of the most celebrated Market susers out there