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The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.8% today. Every single one of its 30 stocks closed lower. But the same crash doesn't mean the same reason. Neabius isn't a chip problem. The market is questioning the whole model of building AI data centers with borrowed money. SK Hynix is about fear of China.
But today Goldman Sachs said the market is overestimating that fear. SanDisk is the furthest from the China story and it still got hit. In 13 days we get the first clue. Let's break down all three with the data. The chip index has now fallen for eight straight sessions. That's its longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis.
Three things hit at once. Inflation, September CPI rose 3.7% hotter than expected. Oil, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices higher. China, Chinese memory maker CXMT announced progress in DRAM technology. Asked about an October rate hike, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said only, "I don't prejudge meetings." It wasn't the reassurance the market wanted.
Neabius plunged more than 12% today to close at $165. It closed at $221 last Friday. So it has lost 25% in a single week. The trigger was a warning from research firm Gartner. Gartner expects more than 80% of AI cloud providers like Neabius to stop operating independently by 2030. Its closest peer, Coreweave, also fell nearly 12% today.
The market is selling both names as one trade. Technically, this was a meaningful day. Neabius broke below its 200-day moving average around $174, a level many investors had treated as support. Yet Seeking Alpha's quant rating is still strong buy at 4.91. Growth A+ and EPS revisions A. Analysts are still raising their earnings estimates.
Valuation C. that's the clear weak spot. The stock isn't cheap after this drop. It's just less expensive than it was. Wall Street's average price target is $283, but the range runs from $84 to $410, which shows how divided opinion on this company is. For Neebius, how it funds its growth matters more right now than AI demand.
SK Hynix's US listed shares fell 6.58% to close at $136. Keep one thing in mind. SK Hynix's main listing is in Seoul, and that market had already closed before today's US sell-off. It's next session is Monday, October 19th, when today's move could carry over. The core fear is China's CXMT. Goldman Sachs expects CXMT's DRAM capacity to grow about 77% by the end of 2028.
Goldman said, "Concern about that added supply is justified." But Goldman's conclusion leaned the other way. Technology gap, CXMT still trails Korean makers in leading edge DRAM and HBM. Equipment limits, US export controls keep China from accessing the most advanced lithography tools. Valuation, Goldman said, "Current prices reflect an overly pessimistic view of the future." Wall Street is even clearer.
Of the 15 analysts who rated it over the last 90 days, 14 say buy or better. Not one says sell, and one number stands out. The average price target is $252, but the lowest target is $152. That's above today's close of $136. Even the most cautious analyst on Wall Street sees upside from here. Because the US listing is so new, Seeking Alpha doesn't have a quant rating for it yet.
For SK Hynix, separate China's future supply from its HBM edge today. SanDisk fell 6.85% today, breaking below $1,300. It was at $17.87 on October 1st, so it has lost 27% in 2 weeks. Here's the irony. CXMT, the center of this scare, makes DRAM. SanDisk makes NAND flash. Goldman specifically noted that SanDisk is less exposed to CXMT's technology.
And while the stock fell 27%, its Seeking Alpha Quant score barely moved, from 4.99 to 4.97. It's still a strong buy, ranked 21st out of 4,296 stocks. Four A+ grades, valuation, growth, profitability, and momentum are all A+. EPS revision C+. This one is worth watching. It was A- 3 months ago, a sign that analysts are raising estimates more slowly.
The stock now trades at about 6.5 times next year's expected earnings. Wall Street's average price target is $2,173, 67% above the current price. A Seeking Alpha article published today made the same point. The author kept a strong buy, and the reason was cash, not earnings. Buybacks, SanDisk still has $15.5 billion left on its buyback authorization.
Last quarter, it spent about 90% of its free cash flow buying back shares. The author's view, with the stock lower, the company can now buy back shares more cheaply. The author also acknowledged that the stock is now inside his bear case range. That means the market is pricing in the possibility that NAND prices normalize.
October 29th won't answer every question, but it will be the first clue on whether SanDisk's profits keep turning into real cash. For SanDisk, NAND prices and cash generation matter more than China's DRAM scare. Monday, October 19th, SK Hynix in Seoul. October 28th, Fed rate decision. October 29th, SanDisk earnings.
All three stocks had one thing in common today. Their prices fell hard, but their quant scores and Wall Street ratings barely changed. Whether the fear or the numbers turn out to be right, these dates will tell us. Nebius is about funding. SK Hynix is about its HBM edge. SanDisk is about cash generation.
They fell together today, but each one has a different thing to watch. If this helped, please subscribe and hit like.
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