저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 급등장은 기대하지 않지만 2019년 미국 경제는 괜찮은 성장을 할 것으로 본다. 신용시장: 12월 하이일드 채권 발행이 10년 만에 0건으로 멈춘 것은 부정적 신호가 아니라 심리 위축에 따른 일시적 정상화로 본다. 과거 신용스프레드가 비정상적으로 낮았던 만큼 조정은 자연스럽다고 설명. 소비: 취업·임금 상승, 가계 재무상태 양호, 신용카드 연체 매우 좋음. 소비자는 건강하며 계속 성장할 것이라 봄. 금리: 연준의 금리 정상화(단기 3%, 10년 4% 수준)는 바람직하다고 봄. 연준 파월 의장을 신뢰하며 데이터 의존적으로 움직일 것이라 언급. 시장 금리 인하 기대는 단기 우려에 과잉 반응이라 판단. 주가: 주가수익비율이 18배에서 16배로 낮아진 것은 둔화·무역전쟁 위험을 반영한 합리적 조정이라 봄. 고용지표(31.2만명 증가) 등을 근거로 반등 가능성 언급하나 강한 랠리는 아님. 국채금리: QE 영향으로 장기금리 역전 신호의 중요도를 예전보다 낮게 봄. 그럼에도 10년물 금리가 정상 수준(4%)보다 낮다고 보며 QE 역전 효과는 불확실하다고 언급. 리스크: 무역전쟁, 경기둔화, QE 축소 효과 불확실성. 출연자 전망: 2019년 미국 성장은 양호하나 주식시장의 급등은 기대하지 않음.
다듬은 글
there was no high-yield debt issuance in the month of December it's the first time that's happened in a decade yeah is that an ominous sign yeah I remember during the financial crisis which you lived through and you led with such great leadership it was the debt markets that got us into trouble yeah but as the deleveraging the liquidation of debt mark is not the not the lack of issue and so my view is that December things slow down people got scared the issuer didn't want to issue GAAP spreads gapped out that'll probably change how long can the credit market stay this tight before you actually do see it as a worry sign for awhile I'm really not worried about it I think I think you're just having if you look at the other way around credit spreads were abnormally low for a long time this is more maybe a little bit of normalization and you know you and I both know that the tip of the ice but the tip of the spear is IPOs and high-yield so when people when sentiment changes dramatically those are using the first two areas where people cut back and then they kind of open up over time the fundamentals seem to be okay putting the market volatility aside but you've got a great vantage point in seeing how consumers are doing from your credit card business what do you see so credit card I mean it's very good I mean again if you look at actual data people getting jobs more people working wages going up wages are going up household balance sheet very good shape credit card credit extraordinary good I think it's better than we deserve at this point in the cycle and if you look at actual spend and it look a retail spend about home improvement spend a whole budget it's pretty good and so you know me my view is that the consumer is in good shape and is continue to grow and they have bakwin with jobs and wages going up speaking of normalized the Federal Reserve is trying to normalize interest rates now raising rates from these rock-bottom levels that we were at is the Fed doing the right thing in your view how many Fed hikes do you think we should see in the year ahead and how many might we say yeah I remind people years ago you know the Fed didn't forecast and all that type of thing Paul Volcker raised rates effectively 200 basis points in a Sunday night no one complete knows the future so the Fed obviously has to be data dependent and I think that Dad dependencies both interest rates and maybe how they even managed to bounce you a little bit they are very bright people I have enormous respect for chairman Powell and they'll look at the situation adjusted a quarter but my own view is if we had good growth raising rates normalizing so normalize would be 3% the short end and maybe 4% of tenure is a good thing so you don't think markets though are indicating a recession is on the horizon over the near term then no bank markets are overreacting to short term send them in around a whole bunch of complex issues what about the shrinkage in money supply but I actually said some of it is a rational response so when you know stock prices are 18 to PE and now they're it's 16 because you think there could be a slower growth higher chance of recession high chance or trade war that is a rational adjustment you shouldn't say that that's irrational yeah you know I would say that's probably pretty rational you pay less under that environment because you think the future is gonna be very different thought it was before actually you know better than I do but when I think about things the Federal Reserve makes a pivot they say there are no rush earnings have been pretty strong we just had great jobs numbers on Friday three hundred twelve thousand jobs created valuations are better after the last three months seems like me we could be poised for a ripple on Ali yeah that's why I think people react I don't know a ripple in rally but I think you're gonna have decent growth in 2019 in America and therefore Senate may reverse course a little bit down the road I hate guessing about the future I run my business like serving you as a client right and then we've navigate the ups and downs of markets but just to be clear when you look at what happened in the inversion or when you look at the no high-yield debt issuance that's real time and that's telling us something right now it's not speculating yeah III think that's true but again I look at the inversion a little bit because of QE I wouldn't give it as quite high importance as I would before we don't know the exact effect of QE and I still suspect that somehow that ten-year bond today should be a 4% and I've been wrong about that but you know you've had 2% inflation a normal 10-year bond rate is 4% and we don't have that and that made because if not just us QE by the way severe the Federal Reserve you've had QE around the world there for a long time the ECB was buying a hundred percent of sovereign debt issuance and in Europe and for a couple years that was true here that's we've never seen something like that before maybe during World War two we had some of that but you know it's we don't know exactly what the reverse will be but I have a little faith and that our focal navigator
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