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엔비디아 3분기 실적이 매출 181.2억달러로 예상치를 크게 상회했고, 4분기 가이던스 200억달러 이상도 월가 예상을 웃돈다. 데이터센터 매출 중 중국 비중(20~25%)이 줄어들 것이나 다른 수요로 대체 가능하다는 전망. 다만 2024년 하반기~2025년 데이터센터 수요 둔화 우려가 제기되며 주가는 단기 횡보 중이다. 엔비디아는 여전히 핵심 보유 종목으로 평가되며, SMH 같은 ETF로 분산 투자를 권유한다.
다듬은 글
are nvidia's biggest growth dates behind the company can you continue to hold shares and outperform the broader markets can you step in here and buy more Nvidia shares and continue to outperform the market like this stock has been doing we'll talk about that in the context of the Q3 earnings coming out from Nvidia after the Bell we'll go through all the numbers some important Trends and obviously the technical chart pattern as well what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there finally going to talk about Nvidia the company the last of the mega cap companies to report those earnings they came out after the Bell Q3 numbers coming in at just 205% year-over-year or Revenue growth that beat Expectations by about $2 billion and this company for the last year or so has just been beating expectations time and time again year-to date Shares are up 250% over the past year up 230% can we keep the good times rolling as it relates to that type of performance now let's take a look at Q3 $18.12 billion the midpoint estimate was for 16.1 the highend was for $7.5 billion so look at $18 billion coming like more than $500 million higher than even the high-end estimate that is a good sign also a good sign we got Q4 guidance from Nvidia coming in at 20 billion plus or minus another 2% now high-end estimate was right at about 20.1 billion 20.8 billion excuse me midpoint was for 17.8 so you're going to see over the next look this week is a holiday weekend hopefully you all have a great Thanksgiving but next week you'll see a lot of analysts kind of get back into the office and they're going to have to revise up for Q4 you're going to have to re revise up for q1 because this company again is guiding for $20 billion in Q4 and so look your q1 and Q2 in terms of Wall Street estimates are not even there yet you do have have some analysts expecting 2225 billion that's probably the trajectory that Nvidia is heading down now complicating the situation just a little bit are all those sanctions that the United States government has placed on nvidia's chips getting shipped into the country of China and they started with some regulation last year right around October I believe they came back and revised those rules now Nvidia is responding by coming out with more and more chips modified chips if you will that can be shipped into China but obviously the White House and the government can kind of maybe stay one step ahead or be maybe a half step behind is probably a way to say it in terms of Nvidia making those sales now we got some pretty good explanation from management saying that in terms of their data center which is about 14.5 billion of the $18 billion worth of Revenue about 20 to 25% of that Revenue comes from China and they're expecting this to decline significantly I would guess you're probably moving into kind kind of the single digits in terms of revenue from data center coming from China however given the guidance that the company gave at $20 billion again Wall Street was expecting 17 A5 high-end Wall Street estimates for 20.8 my guess is almost all of this demand that you're seeing in China it's going to be sucked up into other countries primarily here in the United States you look at something like open AI minus all the drama well they had to uh start cutting off people from signing up from the popular chat GPT plus primarily because they don't have the compute power right they don't have enough of these computer chips to offer a compelling product not only that they need to train their next model chat GPT 5 or whatever model number they want to call it well you have to continue to progress things along and then obviously you have a plethora of other startups out there that are trying to get their hands on nvidia's GPU so in the short term Nvidia should be able to replace dollar for dooll any China dollars that move out of the company's sales as it relates to the White House sanctions that they put on and again this is a sanction directly from the White House it's not something that was passed through Congress wasn't something that was up for debate on the house floor or the senate floor this was passed directly through the president so your elections certainly do have consequences as it relates to the Investments that you make now data center Revenue in the most recent quarter coming in 14 and a half I mean look at this look at this last year it was 3.8 billion okay even just 34 ago it was 36 in q1 it was 4.2 and so you've just had this massive acceleration and so this massive pull forward and so what some investors are going to start to be maybe a little concerned about is as you start to pull forward this amount of demand eventually it starts to absolutely start to flatten out now we haven't seen any evidence of that you're up 40% quarter over quarter let alone year-over-year you're up just gigantic amount of percentage there in terms of Revenue however you should see as we head into 2024 it will be fiscal 2025 for NVIDIA you will see this start to flatten out and then eventually just due to the nature of this product you're buying these really expensive gpus and you're going to use them for several years it's not like you're going to use this chip for a year and then turn it's not like a cell phone or maybe some other computer products where you're replacing this rather regularly you're buying these chips and you are going to hold on to them so there's going to be some concern and not right this second but as we head into next year 2024 fiscal 2025 for NVIDIA you you are going to have analysts and and probably pundits on TV start to talk about the fact that this data center revenue is likely going to flatten out you could see further sanctions from the United States government make it to where all the data center traffic to China goes away and then your customers here in the US eventually they start to tap out that right they're like I have enough gpus I have enough compute power you know like I don't need any more I think that's probably a late 20124 thing maybe first quarter all the way into uh 2025 we're looking forward here but that's what the stock market does right okay this stock ran immediately all the way back here in April you basically gapped up into this like $4500 range many many months ago on these revenues that were considerably less because Nvidia did a very nice job telegraphing the next several quarters and so what you're going to have heading into next year is a debate with Nvidia obviously this growth is going to continue it is going to slow down but what does 2025 start to look like are you going to have the microsofts the Amazon the Googles and all the other startups out there start to tap out on demand and say we've got enough of these chips they're running enough of the inference and the training sets that they need with these chips they don't need any more I'm not exactly sure I actually think that's probably doubtful I think those discussions are going to come in and that is likely going to keep a lid a little bit on nvidia's stock price and so something that we talked about off the Jump was obviously the stock is outperform look this stock has consistently outperformed on any time frame so I wouldn't blame anybody to continue to hold their shares or continue to inch in to this stock or want to gain exposure to it if we start to look out for the next year or so are we going to have 200% 100% type of growth in this name seems to me it's going to be a little more challenging certainly than it has been off the low base that we came off of with Nvidia and look we were on a low base last year this company had net income of just $601 million that's right this company was operating at near Break Even this time last year now you had operating income at $1.4 billion look at the 9month trend last year you had just $3 billion over over 9 months meaning this company was printing about a billion dollar in operating income per quarter now you're at $19 billion so they are growing into that valuation and the valuation is not overly egregious okay 45 times I bet if you rework the numbers and the estimates you're probably kind of like in a low3s type of PE on this one so you're not actually paying a huge multiple and if you believe that this data center Revenue first of all you have to believe that the China demand or the China situation first of all it could get better but number two you have other companies kind of step in there from a demand perspective if you believe that and you believe this number is just going to continue to chug higher and higher well obviously you've got a stock that's actually not that wildly overvalued gross profit coming in at 13.4 off that $8.1 billion look at your research and development barely spending any more money 2 billion last year 2.3 selling General administrative I could be like the loan sales agent at Nvidia and they would put $20 billion in in operating profit or or Revenue next quarter because uh the the product sells itself so that's great for NVIDIA obviously uh from a balance sheet perspective obviously they're loading up mean look at this from 23 billion up to $32 billion they're just printing cash over here at Nvidia they've chipped down their long-term debt we'll see that when we get here to cash flow statement you're pulling down again a very impressive net income number $9.3 billion this year last year this company was was not really making any money it was just marginally profitable look at your net cash provided by operating activities 400 million all the way up to $7.3 billion you're buying back stock at these elevated levels is that the best choice for NVIDIA to buy back the stock right now or just let this $3.8 billion sit in the bank collect 5% on your treasuries and maybe go out there and make some Acquisitions because like we said I I believe invid when you look at nvidia's growth rate it's in the like the 1002 200 100% right now but you start to look out to 2025 I don't think anyone's going to argue that the growth rate at this company is going to slip back into like the mid teens doesn't mean the stock is going to fall off the map by any means but is there a way to re accelerate this growth rate keep it in the 20s keep it up to 30s one way to do that is through certain types of Acquisitions and and look the company still has plenty of money in order to do something like that uh but look $3.8 billion when you're stock is at an all-time high in terms of buyback I don't know if that's the best use of cash we'll certainly see going forward with Invidia but printing still even buying back the stock printing large amounts of cash to their balance sheet and again this company just has a boatload more current assets and certainly from just a straight cash perspective they've got a lot more than they did uh last year so very impressive uh what their company's doing and and even if they run into some growth rate which I I think most people agree even when they run into kind of a slowing growth rate they're going to have plenty of cash there to to do some things now from a technical perspective this stock has been trading sideways really since June you're you're bottoming at 405 the buyers are stepping in at 405 but the sellers are absolutely stepping in at $500 on the nose on this one people are stepping in and taking profit at those levels and if investors are not pushing this one to a new level after the20 billion Revenue guidance which again is well well above expectations and more or less above kind of the high-end estimates for NVIDIA not exactly sure what would push this one even higher going forward and so there's our discussion like is this stock going to outperform the broader markets going forward I certainly don't think it's going to vastly underperform so you certainly can continue to hold your shares with all the shakeup that you're seeing with open AI you start to see a splintering of the companies it could actually accelerate the demand for more and more Nvidia chips as open AI was kind of the centerpiece of the AI world you get that to start to splinter out while more and more startups might be able to feel like they can come in and take some market share and so it could re accelerate the demand and look I don't want to re accelerates probably uh not the word but but you have to understand this pull forward of demand for NVIDIA that is going to start to show its head as we get into late next year we're talking the Q3 Q4 of 2024 and certainly by the q1 of 2025 you're going to have these discussions like is there much more demand than already has shown up for these data center chips that is certainly Up For Debate the stock is still one of the Premier stocks in my opinion to own I probably would encourage most investors if you're not already in Nvidia a more Diversified offering could be found in there's several ETFs the one I tend to focus on is the SMH this one looks absolutely Sensational from a technical perspective you've just broken to new highs pullbacks in this one can absolutely be purchased folks that was nvidia's Q3 earnings and that puts a wrap really on Mega cap tech for Q3 it was an interesting quarter and we'll certainly see the rest of the year play out with these stocks hopefully you all have a wonderful holiday weekend Happy Thanksgiving we'll see you again on Friday good luck with your Investments
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