저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 아르헨티나 시장 반등 기대, 다만 달러화·정책 실행이 전제되며 중국은 대만 경유 투자를 선호한다는 입장. 아르헨티나: 밀레이 당선 후 달러화(dollarization)와 중앙은행 폐지가 실행되면 인플레이션 급락과 경제 신뢰 회복이 가능하다고 주장. 아르헨티나 국민이 해외에 달러를 많이 보유하고 있어 달러 자금은 충분하다고 봄. 실행 여부는 신정부 이행력에 달려 있음. 투자 방식: 과거 인플레이션이 2,000%에 달할 때는 장부가치 기준으로 기업을 매수했다고 회고. 현재는 전 업종을 스캔해 자본수익률이 좋은 기업을 찾는 단계이며, 기술·소프트웨어에 관심이 크다고 언급. 구체적 종목이나 목표가는 제시하지 않음. 브라질·중남미: 아르헨티나와 브라질의 통화 통합 가능성을 언급하며 이 역시 브라질에 긍정적이라고 봄. 두 경제권 모두 규모가 크고 우량 기업이 많다고 평가. 중국·대만: 중국은 기회가 있지만 대만을 통한 간접 투자를 선호. 대만 기업들의 중국 내 생산 연계가 많고, 특히 TSMC가 고부가 반도체 세계 1위라 반도체 관련 노출을 원한다고 밝힘. 대만 리스크: 향후 2~3년 내 중국의 군사 침공 가능성은 낮다고 판단. 중국은 평화적 인수를 원하며 전쟁은 실익이 없고, 현재는 심리전 단계이며 국내 경제 문제가 더 큰 과제라는 시각. 펠로시 방미도 단기 군사행동 방향과는 거리가 있다고 봄. 공급망·인플레이션: 미국이 중국과 완전한 디커플링을 하지 않는 방향이지만 다변화(친구국 조달)는 이미 진행 중. 중국산 공급이 완전히 차단되면 미국 소비시장에 타격이 크지만, 기업들은 인도·베트남·말레이시아 등으로 이전 중이며 인도가 최대 수혜국이 될 것이라고 전망. 다만 중국 공급이 완전히 끊기는 시나리오는 없다고 봄. 대상 자산 직접 예측: 없음(아르헨티나 시장·반도체(TSMC 간접) 관련 긍정 논조는 있으나 대상 목록 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언 없음).
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well Argentina stocks are soaring as local markets reopen following the decisive victory of Javier mle Renown Emerging Markets investor Mark Mobius president of Mobius investment Consulting says these changes can be an opportunity he joins us now from Dubai mark thank you so much for being with us of course when we talk about the changes that he's hoping to bring it includes the dollarization of the economy potentially shuttering the Central Bank what's the investment opportunity in that well it's all about the currency as you know I mean if you go into a place like Argentina where there's inflation we were investing at one point when it was about 2,000% and it was very very difficult uh we had to buy companies on the basis of their Book value rather than anything else but at the end of the day it's been a very dangerous place to be with the currency the way it is and with inflation in that uh situation so now if they dollarize if that's a big if by the way if they go ahead with that it will be an incredible boost for the economy and for the country you'll see inflation down dramatically if they get rid of the Central Bank that'll be one another step in the right direction and I think uh uh the Outlook is terrific under these circumstances but we have to wait and see if the new president can actually Implement those changes Mark Mark good afternoon are there enough dollars to do that yeah there's plenty of dollars it's not a matter of the quantity of dollars it's a matter of pegging the economy to the US dollar because Argentine people have lots of dollars offshore you better believe that they protected themselves from this incredible inflation by having dollars so there's plenty of dollars and it's a psychological imp impact which is so important it's not a matter of them you know using dollars every day with cash transactions nowadays with paperless transactions as long as you're pegged to the dollar and everything all the prices are pegged to the dollar then you're going to see an incredible return of confidence so Mark obviously Argentina is one of the economies in South America that has seen a certain degree of volatility there's going to be a lot of questions going forward as to how Malay also navigates relationship sh within the region and more geopolitically when you're looking more widely at Latin America does Argentina present the the best opportunity is there or is there other areas where it's relatively more attractive well when you look at Argentina you really got to look at Brazil in conjunction with Argentina as you know at one point they've talked about having a combined currency combining the economies of these two great Nations and uh that is possibly something that could happen uh because as you know the history of Brazil is one of incredible High inflation so if they can get together in that respect it will be very very good these are big big economies uh terrific opportunities lots of great companies so this would be a good thing for Brazil as well Mark would you be investing how would you be investing are you investing kind of how are you thinking about this are you getting ready to invest where do you see the biggest opportunity just kind of give us give us the mark his Playbook here well right now with these changes we're beginning to do scans you know we do scanning of the entire Market to see where the opportunities may be which companies have good Returns on Capital etc etc U and the nice thing about the Argentine economy uh being such a big economy there's lots of uh opportunities in different sectors so we're looking at every sector that we can look at of course we're very interested in Tech uh software that sort of thing but there are many other opportunities we can look at uh so we're keeping an open mind and Now's the Time to do some scanning to look at where the opportunities are what companies we should be looking at okay so when you're doing that scanning mark on on a more global scale that's one region that we have uh pretty thoroughly gone through now what about others if you're looking at say China for example which has raised a lot of question marks in terms of the fragilities in that economy the trajectory of it is that somewhere you see opportunity or danger there are opportunities in China it's a huge Market as you know it's a big economy but we think it's a better idea if you want to look at China look at it through Taiwan because you must remember uh there's a lot of trade that takes place between Taiwan and China many Taiwanese companies are in China of course foxom is probably the best example maybe maybe not a good example at this stage of the game but there are many many countries like that so we prefer to go into China through Taiwan particularly now with the incredibly uh increased emphasis in China on technology and particularly semiconductors as you know uh tsmc Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing in Taiwan is the leader in the world in high value semiconductors so that's where we want to be Mark you're not in any way concerned therefore that we do see geopolitical tensions around the island being raised there are many people that are concerned that 2024 could be the year in which we do see tensions being ratcheted higher there's even some talk of an embargo I we don't know what's going on in the mind of the senior leadership in Beijing you're confident enough that we're not going to see any trouble that we're not going to see that kind of an event presenting itself in order to make those Investments I feel that there's not going to be anything happening in this short term when I say short term I mean the next two or three years and the reason for that is China uh is not going to benefit from a military invasion of Taiwan in fact uh they won't get what they want they want a Handover which is peaceful where they can take over and begin to benefit from the companies in Taiwan and if you have a hot war that not going to happen uh so it's psychological warfare that we have now where China says look we want to take thawan we'll do it with Force but they really are not going to implement that particularly now it's interesting to note that the visit by she to the US uh my take of that was that they're not going to be moving in that direction anytime soon they've got too many things to worry about at home the economy what's happening with the housing etc etc well when we think about the economy Mark of course the consistent messaging from the Biden Administration from here in Washington is that the US is not looking to decouple with China China of course doesn't want the US to be decoupling hence why we're talking about diversification or friend Shoring rather the the going thinking though is to some degree that is happening already whether or not it is stated public policy and that that ultimately could be kind of inflationary how are you thinking about inflationary Dynamics right now at a time when clearly inflation is on the downturn but there could be a lot of risks to to reinl it oh there's no question if you had a complete shutdown of Supply from China uh the US consumer Market will be in trouble I mean you just walk into Walmart or any of the big retail Giants in America and you'll see made in China all over the place so this is a real problem and China can make things so cheap and of course some of the quality is excellent but uh a lot of these companies in America are beginning to realize they cannot depend only on China that's why they're moving into India in particular they've already moved into Vietnam into Malaysia into these other countries but India is going to be the big beneficiary of the switch however you're not going to see Supply from China being completely shut off that's not in the cards Mark always great to catch you up thanks for joining us really appreciate M movus president of movus investment Consulting
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