저자: 하나코 · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 증시 하락(9/2, 나스닥·다우 등)을 매수 기회로 설명하며 장기 투자와 분산 원칙을 강조. S&P500 과거 폭락 사례와 2024년 8월 일본 증시 급락, 2025년 4월 관세 충격을 복기. SOXL은 장기 추천은 아니지만 지금이 매수 적기라고 언급하고, 본인이 $8에 사서 $27에 매도했다고 발표. 자막 상 발언 내용은 대부분 과거 설명이며, 향후 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 드묾.
다듬은 글
교토에서 전하는 근황과 오늘의 주제
I'm in Kyoto. We'll meet tomorrow. The Kyoto Ofu-kai was a great success. Thank you to everyone who participated. I received lots of souvenirs, and it's currently 5 AM. Let's eat.
Hello everyone. This is Hanako. Today's topic is how to win at individual stock trading by learning from past declines.
SOXL 매수 시점과 현재 시장 흐름
The next time to buy SOXL is probably uncertain, as many people are wondering whether the price is currently rising or falling. It is currently the middle of the night on Wednesday, September 3rd, but the US stock market fell on Tuesday, September 2nd. Mine is down 2% to 136.15 million yen. The index fell by more than 1%.
하락은 나쁜 것만이 아니다
A decline is fine. Some people think that a decline is bad, but it's precisely because prices fall that you can buy US stocks cheaply and make a profit. Of course, the stocks you own will also fall in value, but long-term investing means enduring the pain and continuing to buy. Doing nothing is the most profitable option.
연초 대비 주요 지수 수익률
The year-to-date index shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 6%. NASDAQ has risen 9.7% year-to-date. The S&P 500 has risen 8.4% year-to-date. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 7.6%. Bitcoin rose 11.6% against the yen. Iseriam rose 21% against the yen. This is a downturn in the atmosphere. It's still rising quite a bit.
S&P 500의 과거 대폭락 되짚어보기
Let's review the past declines of the S&P 500. Looking at past major declines in the S&P 500, the world's largest index has fallen by 84%. The Lehman Shock caused a 61% drop. The oil shock caused a 45% drop. The dot-com bubble burst saw a 39% drop. Black Monday saw a 37% drop. The stock market fell 32% due to the coronavirus shock.
The stock market fell 25% due to various shocks including inflation, interest rate hikes, the wars in Russia and Ukraine, and disruptions to supply chains. Let's add that it fell by 19% in April of this year.
2025년 4월 쇼크의 원인
The April 2025 shock: The decline began in February 2025, the lowest month was April, the decline lasted 2 months, and it took 4 months to recover.
Upon further reflection, the reason for this was that, following expectations of inflation and interest rate cuts, PCs and other prices remained high, leading to market anxiety that inflation was not falling as much as expected. After a sharp rise in two AI-related stocks following an overheating period, selling pressure began due to concerns that they were overvalued.
Then Trump's tariffs hit hard. Since February 2025, the complete tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, iron, aluminum, China, and other countries have been announced one after another, and in April, a 10% tax plus additional tariffs effectively spread to all imports. The market quickly shifted towards risk-off sentiment due to associations with full taxation, rising import costs, and renewed inflation.
2024년 8월 닛케이 폭락 사태
There was a market downturn in August 2024 as well, but how much did it actually fall? Last August, the US market didn't fall that much. It was just that the daily decline rate was high. The Nikkei stock index experienced a surprising decline. It fell 12% in just one day on August 5th. A 12% drop is certainly surprising.
In the end, it looked like foreign investors sold, causing the market to plummet, and then Japanese investors sold, driving down prices, which were then bought up by foreign investors. There was uncertainty about the future of US interest rates, a global risk-off sentiment, economic risk, and concerns about an economic slowdown.
Japanese stocks had just hit a new all-time high in July 2024, and foreign investors who had been waiting for an opportunity to take profits suddenly moved in unison. This means that it was a mix of foreign sellers, Japanese sellers, and foreigners selling out. The reason is that foreign investors account for approximately 70% of the Japanese stock market, so they inevitably hold the upper hand.
Foreigners use index futures and ETFs to buy and sell instantly, while Japanese investors tend to focus on physical assets and are more likely to be late to the game. That's fine, though. The crash in August 2024 was caused by: 1) foreign investors selling futures, which caused a market upturn; 2) older investors selling medium-sized contracts, which widened the decline; and 3) foreign investors buying at the lows.
Is there anything more absurd than that? This kind of thing is likely to happen because foreigners hold the reins in the Japanese stock market. Those planning to buy Japanese stocks next time should be careful. So, overall, the market didn't decline that much in August of last year; it was just that there were sharp drops on individual days.
장기 투자 관점: 미국 주식과 엔화 약세
Reviewing the decline is important. I've been investing in US stocks since 2000, and it's the same thing over and over again; I've heard people say US stocks are finished so many times. Looking at the S&P 500 and Nikkei stock prices as a whole, the S&P 500 has been on an upward trend. When I started investing in 2000, it had been stagnant for 10 years, but conversely, that was a lucky opportunity for steady, consistent investing.
However, because the yen is so weak, US stocks have risen even more in yen terms. The yen has depreciated by 40% in 5 years. In other words, the S&P 500, viewed in yen terms, is up 40% in dollar terms. A weak yen is advantageous when viewed in yen, but it also means that foreign goods become 40% more expensive.
So, intuitively, those who haven't voted are at a significant disadvantage, while those who have voted are roughly breaking even. This creates an endless loop where prices rise, taxes are cut, international issuance increases, the yen weakens, and even with rising prices and tax cuts, simply holding yen won't make life easier.
트럼프 1기와 달러 강세의 효과
During the first Trump administration from 2007 to 2020, President Trump would warn Japan if the yen depreciated above 130 yen. However, for inflationary America, a stronger dollar is more likely to lower prices, so the yen subsequently depreciated significantly. If it goes back down to 160 yen like before, President Trump might start complaining again.
Inflation in the US, in particular, has been calming down recently. A strong dollar has the effect of lowering import prices for the United States. When the dollar strengthens, things that the U.S. imports, such as crude oil, energy, parts, and medical supplies, become cheaper in dollars. In particular, since 2022, the United States has experienced high inflation, making price control a top priority.
Therefore, tolerating a strong dollar would help curb inflation. The relationship between global trends and stock prices is fascinating, isn't it? The Nikkei Stock Average finally reached its 1990 peak last year. And it cost 158 yen back in 1990 as well. In 1970, the exchange rate was 320 yen to the dollar, but at that time, it was a politically determined rate, completely different from today.
Therefore, it's not that easy for the Japanese yen to surpass 200 yen or 300 yen. But you never know what's going to happen in this world.
공포지수(VIX)로 시장 판단하기
When you're not sure if the market is falling or not, you should check the VIX index, also known as the "fear of falling, someone help me" index. The VIX index has been in a slump for the past year, and although it has risen slightly, it was above 50 in April.
I bought SOXL at that time because it was the perfect opportunity to explain how to buy SOXL. I don't generally recommend SOXL as a long-term investment, but if you're going to buy it, now's the time to buy.
SOXL 매매 사례와 수익 공유
And it says SOXL than. thank you. Wow, that's amazing. It contains 50,000 yen. I didn't know. I was surprised until I opened it just now. I'm looking forward to Sophie's next live performance. Gulp, this is a huge responsibility. Wow, I'm surprised. thank you.
I looked into SoFi a long time ago, but it's been acquired repeatedly and has become a licensed bank, so the situation is completely different now. We've decided to look into this again in our practical class this month. The practical classes are now available every month, so if you're interested, please click the link below for details. Now that this has happened, I'll investigate diligently.
I heard that SOXL was a buy when it dropped to $8 in April of this year, and that someone bought it too, and that they made a lot of money back then. Thank you everyone. I'm surprised. There are too many poor people. That's right. With this 50,000 yen, I could probably buy something and double the amount. Okay, let's discuss what we should buy.
When the Mix price exceeded 50, the SXL price dropped to $8. And the return is significant. This time I only taught you how to buy SOXL, so I bought it for $8 and am selling it for $27. If I were okay with the price dropping multiple times, I could have waited until it reached $60, but this year I decided to sell to maintain a steady pace.
You should remember how to buy SOXL using this method with BiXsys. I'm already using that method systematically. But that's actually quite difficult, isn't it? I remember talking to this member at an offline meeting, and he said that he bought at the same time as me and made several million yen in profit. But skilled people are skilled regardless of advice they receive. Everyone's amazing.
Among the approximately 100 people who attended this joint meeting, there were about 10 doctors. The people who gather around Hanako are a group of wealthy individuals. At the offline meeting, I sang two songs in a row, "Even When I Become an Old Lady" and "Idol After All," but I wonder if it's okay for me to be like this? VIXX's popularity is low right now, and a decline is bound to happen someday.
역사적 급락 시기와 매도하지 말아야 할 이유
The 2008 Lehman Shock. It rose to 40 in 2010, then rose to 40 again in 2011, and then in 2020, the big wave of the coronavirus shock hit. 2022 was a turbulent and high year, and for the first time in a while, it's April 2025, which is this year. Don't sell even if the price drops. The reason is that you should sell when the price is rising, so if you're going to sell when the price is falling, you should stop now.
Think carefully about what to do when the price falls. To do that, we need to look at the US economy, examine US financial statements, and consider whether it's likely to recover even if it declines. If you don't think it will ever recover, then quit now. I won't quit.
개별주 투자 원칙
I recommend investing monthly based on the S&P 500 index, but individual stocks are for those aiming for higher returns. Therefore, ideally, you should limit yourself to a maximum of five individual stocks. Because of my job, I buy a lot of products and study so I can explain them, but for individual tests, you only need to get 3 out of 5 right. Even Shohei Ohtani doesn't hit 100% of the time, so why do people assume that every investment is guaranteed to pay off? That's impossible.
Investing shouldn't be done by luck; it should be done as much as possible based on probability. Of course, as the risk increases, the certainty also increases, so the element of luck becomes more prominent. So, when it comes to individual stocks, you only need to get 3 out of 5 right.
For example, if you buy 5 million yen worth of 5 stocks and 3 of them increase tenfold, it's okay if the other 2 are lost. That's the general idea. When investing, try to rely on probability rather than luck as much as possible. Therefore, let's look at the economy and read financial statements. Having more weapons is better.
I'm going to give it my all in this month's practical class. But ultimately, the decision is yours. I'll do my best to gather the materials. Alright everyone, let's do our best. I can't speak loudly, so at parties and things like that, I use Tetsuko's voice imitation, which is convenient because it carries well. Well then, everyone, have a good day.
간식과 제품 소개 (마무리)
Let's open this. Oh, that looks delicious. delicious. I was given a sample to taste at the venue, and it was still open, so even if I eat it again, this is all that's left. Ugh. Beauty. And here it is. looks delicious. looks delicious. Hmm. delicious. I'll take this. Delicious. yes. It's incredibly delicious. I like purikura (photo booths). I'll enjoy having this. Wow, that chocolate looks delicious. delicious. Deep-fried almond chocolate, seasoned with salt. Ooh. The yuzu looks delicious. Delicious noodles and bean tea. I'll have a sip of this a little later.
Enhances semi-functional function, prevents and improves swelling, and promotes blood circulation. It improves the quality of the embroidery, improves the quality of the disease, prevents the progression of diabetes, improves the quality of allergy symptoms, and is good for me because I'm allergic to cats.
It looks like soap. Soap that nourishes. A floral harmony scent. It's soap for washing your face. Ah, it smells nice. I'll start using it right away. Litone. Beauty is about subtraction: removing what you don't need and leaving only what you lack. Okatsucha (a type of tea). I'll try this later. thank you. I'll try comparing the Yuga Matcha later.
What is this? It's a brush from Leefa. Oh, I heard that if you brush your hair with this Leafa brush, it becomes really shiny. Hair is a woman's life. thank you. Also, I heard that Sakusa-san made this for us. Hanako got it right. Hanako got it right. wonderful. thank you. And they even wrote the calligraphy for me. good. thank you.
Thank you so much for the lessons, Hanoko-sensei. Hanoko-san, I always enjoy watching your YouTube videos, which are full of unique ideas. I love cats, so I really admire and respect your work in rescuing cats and dogs. I'm participating because I want to be able to make purchasing decisions based on financial statements, just like Hanako-san. I want to continue learning, aiming for a flexible life like flowing water with many choices. Please enjoy this chocolate as a token of our gratitude. thank you.
I will be speaking at the Nikkei IR Fair on September 27th this month, so even if you are not a member, I hope to see you at Tokyo Big Sight.
27일 오후 4시에 패널 토론에 참석할 예정입니다. 이번 하락 흐름에 맞춰서 이 티셔츠를 입고 가려고요. 멤버들 말고 다른 사람을 만나는 건 이번이 처음이라 정말 기대가 됩니다. 저는 그냥 하위 직급의 연기자인데요, 하나코(신선한 춘권 아닙니다!)를 보러 꼭 와 주세요.
와, 정말 멋지네요. 저는 아카가네 리조트에서 불편한 자리 바로 옆 방에 묵고 있어요. 가깝고 편해요. 죄송합니다. 스구타리는 정말 좋아요. 아침에 교토에 갈 수 있으니까 표면에는 그대로 두세요. 제 시야에는 물이 전혀 없었어요. 네, 네. 그럼 여기서 15번 호텔로 가려고 합니다.
유니버설 스튜디오 바로 앞이라 아주 편리해요. 이곳은 정말 편하고 좋습니다. 쇼가 시작되기까지 한 시간이 남았어요. 파크 프런트 호텔에서는 전망이 아주 좋아요. 쇼가 시작됐어요. 전투를 이끄는 그룹이 보이네요. 저게 전투 그룹인 것 같아요. 아, 달려요, 달려요! 우리는 어디로 가는 거죠?
아, 저쪽에 선두 그룹이 있네요. 저기까지 쭉 와 있었군요. 이게 전투 그룹입니다. 달려요, 달려요. 이건 전투 그룹이에요. 벌써 4명이 올라타 있어요. 우리는 넷뿐이에요. 분명 달려갔을 거예요. 훌륭하네요.
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