저자: Hanako · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 증시가 관세 완화 소식으로 급등했다는 전제에서, 그간 하락 시 매수한 SOXL의 큰 수익을 자랑하며 시장 바닥 심리와 분할매수 원칙을 강조한다. 또한 기관이 하락을 연출해 개인을 털어낸다는 주장과, 유나이티드헬스(UNH) 매수 계획 및 미국 금리 동결 전망을 언급한다. 장기 적립식 투자를 권하며 하락 시 추가매수를 제안한다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone. This is Hanako. US stocks rose . The US market opened Monday with NASDA up 3%, SOXL up 20%, and Tesla up 7%. The S&P 500 has been roughly at break-even for the past year. US cubic nut market started Monday with a significant rise. The Masdac is up 3.97%, mine is up 3.63%, plus the yen has weakened to 147.90 yen, resulting in a profit of 118.87 million yen plus my land investment of 15 million yen = 133.87 million yen.
SOXL +20%. The U.S. and China said on Monday that in April they would reduce the additional tariff on imports from China from 145% to 30%, and that China would reduce its tariff on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% . The new measures are effective for 90 days . The problem has only been postponed, but at least that's good for now.
Let's celebrate today 's significant gains, the first in a while, and the fact that the S&P 500 is now almost at zero for the year . I've been showing the stocks I bought during the decline since April in my videos, so let's take a look . SOXL has doubled in price . I wrote this on March 18th. Did you know ?
When a stock price drops from $100 to $20, that's an 80% drop, but when it rises from $20 to $100, that's a 400% increase ! This shows how important it is to buy when prices are falling . This applies to SOXL, for example . SOXL contains both reaction components and Intel chips, so considering that combination, if you buy it for under $10 in cash and hold it long-term, you'll generally make a profit .
However, when SOXL actually falls below $10, the atmosphere in the stock market changes dramatically. You understood it very well again this time. US stocks are finished. It's over. It felt like a "Kamsam" moment, didn't it? I wrote this during the decline on April 9th. The real bottom of a market crash is always when the calls to buy more disappear and everyone becomes quiet.
And once you've experienced that, you're still dead on the ladder of investment . Well, I think some people might not know this, but I explained how to buy SOXL on X. On April 3rd, SOXL was $13. If I were to buy SOL, it would probably be when the price drops below $10 . I do n't need anything more than that, even if I miss out on buying it.
$12.27 on April 4th. I'm only buying SXL to see how chaotic it can be; it's not a long-term investment. I sold it last year when it was at its highest price, but I made sure to announce it properly at a live show before selling it. $9.07 on April 5th. I wrote that I would buy SOXL when it dropped below $10, so just for fun, I bought $2000 worth when it was $9.07 .
On April 16th, SOXL was down 12% from $10.60, so it's a good time to buy. I bought it at $9.07 the other day, so it's still up, but I'll buy it next time when it's in the $8 range . SOXXL is a trading account, so I only buy $2000 worth of shares each time the price drops by $1. When the price drops to $6, I'll buy in units of $10,000.
$8.85 on April 17th. I'd like to buy more at around $8 . I placed a bid of $8.40 on the same day . I don't think I can today. I was able to buy it for just $8.40. On the same day, the price began to rise after hitting a low of $8.40. April 24th, SOXL is up 17% today at $10.77. It's just a way to earn some pocket money, but I bought SOXL on April 25th and it's up 37% ( +27%) in about a week, but since I only invested $4000 initially, that's a profit of just under 200,000 yen.
This doesn't mean that buying it for tens of thousands of dollars was a good idea . Because it might not work in all cases . Let's keep the dangerous stuff to a minimum . I'll buy it for $50,000 when the price drops to $6 . lol. And today, May 12th, SOXL rose 18% in the past hour, trading at $16.89, double its value in one month.
It's a festival! It's a festival! Wasshoi! And now, three hours before the US stock market closes on Monday, it's up 22% in a day, at $17.29. The reason I can buy when the price drops is because I understand what's inside SOXL . Soyxel aims to triple the Ice Reaction Index, and the constituent stocks of Ice are as follows .
The top 10 includes major companies in the reactionary sector . Broadcom 8.97%, NVIDIA 8.02%, Technos Instruments 7.55%, AMD 7.07%, Qurucom 6.34%, Applied Materials 4.23%, Lam Research 4.22%. From 11th to 20th place are companies like Ron, Intel, ASML, and TSMC, and from 21st to 30th place there are also companies like ARM, but they are all less than 1%.
Even though SXL is said to have three times the Ice Reaction Index, it includes Goldman Sachs and other things I do n't really understand. SOX is also a reaction index, but it's linked to the Philadelphia Reaction Index, so they're slightly different. The ETF is SOXX. What are the actual Ice reaction index and SOXL stock price movements like ?
Ice fell 25% from its high in July last year to its low in April. While Ice rebounded by 25%, SOXL fell by 86%, which is 3.5 times more. It's roughly 3 times, but if we reverse this, that is, if the stock price falls and then returns to its original level, then if Ice falls by 25%, it returns to a profit of 65%.
In the case of SOXL, after a drop of 86%, it recovered to a staggering 632% profit. When you think about it, it's obvious, but it's like a number trick, isn't it? Buying on a dip is definitely the best strategy, but in reality, when the stop-loss falls below $10, many media outlets start saying that US stocks are finished.
It's quite difficult. But if you believe in the American economy, understand the companies within it, and can visualize their financial statements, then you can buy them. Of course, it's not impossible that SOXL could end up costing $6 . You should keep these kinds of possibilities in mind . So I said I would buy it in units of $10,000 when it reached $6 .
And even though I couldn't buy it there, I have no regrets. This illustrates that when a stock exhibits such extreme volatility as SOXL, it's necessary to consider it carefully. Even if the stock price eventually recovers, there's nothing you can do if your mental state deteriorates during the decline .
You need to consider your own mental state before taking any risks. And we need to imagine that even the S&P 500 could be halved at any time . If it's an individual stock, it could fall by 80%, or it could even disappear altogether . You should anticipate that level of risk. I always practice that scenario in my mind, so I can change my stock price when it falls.
Let's do it. 1. When US stocks continue to rise, a correction is inevitable, so we should be prepared for it. 2. When prices rise and then reverse, institutional investors look for reasons for the decline . 3. This time there's the big issue of Trump's tariffs, but even without that, they would have found other reasons to divert the stock to mediators and drive down its value .
4. For some institutional investors, the reason for the market crash is not the issue. Creating a scenario is important. 5. First, the problem is spread through the media . 6. Next, inter-industrial investors and surprised individual investors will sell a little. 7. There is another event that will further increase your anxiety.
Then institutional investors start looking for the right time to short sell . 8. If we can predict that a significant decline is likely to occur, we will create a scenario. 9. I predict that if it falls further, the S&P 500 will experience a decline of around 13%, accelerating the decline, so I will initiate a short-selling position.
Thanks to short selling by intermediary investors, stock prices fell even further, and even those who had been desperately holding onto their shares ran out of funds and began selling off. 11. Next, general investors begin to look for where that is. Twelve intermediary investors occasionally buy stocks to drive up the price and feed the general investors.
13. Pop pop pop pop, ordinary investors will buy, thinking now is the time to buy . 14 And there, the doves and general investors are placed among inter-investors . It was a scam. Furthermore, they resort to a desperate sell-off strategy, employing this pigeon-like tactic several times. Among them are ordinary short-term investors who siphon off profits and make a little extra money, thus amplifying the fluctuations in stock prices.
16. Ordinary investors who have been trapped multiple times will give up. This is probably another scam. Furthermore, they use the media to fuel public anxiety. The decline will continue to accelerate. At its worst, the S&P 500 can fall by more than 30%. Institutional investors who have profited from short selling begin to think about when to sell next .
Short selling means you're borrowing shares, so you have to return them someday. In other words, returning the stock means buying it back, so the stock price rises. The person lending out their shares might be you, earning some extra money by lending out the shares you bought through a stock lending service .
As if by prior arrangement, the wealthy begin buying stocks in winter. Short selling is when you borrow shares and then sell them. I believe you're making a profit of around 1% from lending out your shares, right? Since you invest, lend it out, and then short-sell it to drive down the stock price , ordinary investors who have been tricked into losing money by the price inflated multiple times become exhausted and worn out, unable to recognize buying opportunities .
Seizing that opportune moment, institutional investors like Fuyu Yuso began buying in droves, making huge profits, and then individual investors followed suit like fish droppings. Institutional investors profit from declines by taking money from individual investors and also profit from rises, while selling during declines.
Cheers to the individual investors ! I would never say I wouldn't do it. You're a scaredy-cat. Individual investors should either invest during a downturn or remain still. Diversified investment every month. If you're going to sell when the market declines, then don't invest in the first place. end.
NHK. Looking at it again more closely, the Unity Health shares I bought on April 25th and May 3rd have fallen in price to 434.26398.78. There was this news. A groundbreaking announcement that will shake the Earth. President Trump signs a major presidential bill to cut drug prices by 30% to 80%. This is a major announcement.
For companies that are subject to restrictions, sales and profits may decrease, and pharmacies may also see their margins shrink. However, since UnitedHealth is an insurance company, a decrease in overall healthcare costs means that UnitedHealth will have to pay out insurance claims less, which reduces the risk of profit compression .
Stock prices have fallen, but not by a huge margin . In fact, even pharmaceutical companies that are at a disadvantage, such as Merck and Eli Lilly, are seeing their stock prices rise . UnitedHealth is a company that is highly regarded by Dow Jones, and I believe that if its stock price reaches the $300 range, I will buy it, so that's all I did .
Even if the price drops in the future, I'll hold onto it for the long term, so it'll be fine. But even if stock prices rise, it only means the problem has been postponed, right? This is a list of the top 10 countries with the largest trade deficits with the United States in 2024. The top 10 countries with trade deficits are China (1st), Mexico (2nd), Vietnam, Ireland, Germany, Taiwan, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Switzerland, and the United States (2nd).
The top 10 countries with major trade surpluses in 2024 are the Netherlands ( 1st), South America (2nd), Central America (2nd), Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Brazil, and Belgium. These trade surpluses are mainly due to US exports of oil and gas, aircraft, agricultural products, and IT services .
The trade surplus with the Netherlands, in particular, is largely due to energy-related exports. And now, in particular, trade friction is being rekindled due to the increased tax burden on China . Stock prices rose on May 8th after an agreement was reached with the UK regarding full taxation, but the UK is already in a trade surplus, so it's unlikely they're inclined to raise the tax rate that high .
The problem lies with China, a country currently experiencing a trade deficit . And of course, Japan is included. The US and Chinese governments have announced that, following trade talks in Switzerland, they have agreed to reduce the additional taxes they currently owe each other by 115% . They also stated that they will suspend some tax payments for 90 days to continue discussions.
The unprecedented situation of major economic powers imposing taxes exceeding 100% on each other has been eased for the time being . The next one will be in mid-August. At last week 's FOMC meeting, the policy interest rate was left unchanged . The American economy is currently free of problems . The FOMC has begun its dual Monday meeting, and expanding employment and maintaining price stability are crucial.
The government decided to set interest rates higher in order to achieve a 2% inflation target. GDP fell slightly in the first commercial period. Despite the uncertainty, the economy remains healthy. Prices have fallen considerably compared to 2022, but they still need to be lowered further. Employment is balanced .
The Trump tax has raised expectations of short-term inflation . There was a Q&A session afterward, but Paul's points remained the same throughout. They said that there is no need to lower interest rates because the economy is currently in good condition . There are no changes to the SEP plan at this FOMC meeting; it will be updated in June.
The current attendance rate is 4.2, which is good enough to reach 4.4 by 2025. PC overall inflation has fallen from 2.7% to 2.3%. The PC Core inflation has fallen from 2.8 to 2.6, so there are no problems and it will remain unchanged at 4.4. If you keep this in mind, you should be able to continue investing in US stocks with your own convictions.
Investing in US stocks is more profitable than leaving your money in a bank account because the declines are so sharp . Don't get carried away by the rise. Don't change your strategy and sell immediately just because the price is falling . If possible, buy more when the price drops. If you can't do that, then invest in index funds every month.
Well, it's not SOXL in the index. The focus is on the S&P 500. Long-term investing is like walking on a balance beam; plan your investments carefully while consulting with your own mental state. Balance is important in everything in life. Goodbye then. Yeah.
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