저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 7월 23일 실적 발표와 10월 8일 로보택시 이벤트를 앞두고 과열 국면(유포리아)에 진입할 가능성이 높다는 주장. 현재 PE 102.2, 예상 EPS 246달러, 4년 예상 성장률 32.6%, PEG 약 3.16으로 과거 고점(PEG 4.63, 주가 414달러) 대비 낮다고 봄. 피터 추정 적정가 200~275달러, 과열 시 목표가 295~371달러 제시. 물가(CPI·PPI)는 둔화 추세로 금리 인하 기대가 테슬라에 우호적이라고 판단. 지지선 231달러, 1차 저항 258달러 돌파 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
what does this week have in store for Tesla where is Tesla stock going where does it sit valuation wise how does that compare to Amazon what Catalyst do we have this week a lot to talk about let's get started right away first this is CPI and I hate to say it fed week yeah you've got jpow talking on July 9th and 10th in his semiannual report to Congress we'll be covering the Tuesday event uh maybe Wednesday depends how we feel uh at 7:00 a.m.
on the uh Market live channel so if you're not subscribed there yet just type into YouTube meet Kevin Market live I'm live there every morning at 5:25 thereabouts uh when the market is open and we talk about the market and trading or whatever so you're welcome to join there it's totally free uh and so we'll cover that annual set by annual report from jpow at least on Tuesday maybe also Wednesday though usually Wednesday it's like the same stuff just said again jpow could could be a hit to potentially what happens with interest rate sensitive stocks though I just want to say I don't think so on July 2nd we had cherp JP uh give a discussion with Sarah Eisen at the ECB Forum on Central Banking with Sarah again Sarah Eisen did I just say her name twice and um nothing happened it was it was a large nothing Burger so I wouldn't really worry so much about JP I really don't think we're going to get anything really interesting out of the Federal Reserve that'll Shake people in their boots uh at the very least until July 31st by July 31st we'll actually have more data we'll have another CPI report we'll have another PPI report we'll have another pce report we'll have a lot more data uh and with that data I think the Federal Reserve will begin to steer do we think a rate cut could be coming in September is a rate cut on the table in September or not the beginning of rate Cuts obviously being heavily associated with Tesla because Tesla is an interest rate sensitive stock so as rates go down more people buy the vehicles this is why when we had a model y promotion and you could get a Tesla Model y for what was it 1.99% these things flew off the shelf in Q2 however production slowed down so Tesla right now doesn't offer these lower interest rates we'll fact check that quickly as we uh film this video live right now uh Tesla isn't offering those sort of rates right now presumably because they need production to catch up so many people picked up their Teslas they got to and they didn't produce as many they got to pick up production again uh so uh in other words I I think in Q3 you'll actually end up seeing a little bit of a hit to cash flow whereas in Q2 you could have a really glorious Q2 uh earnings report which comes out on July 23rd so I'm pretty optimistic about the earnings report now looking at their website no interest rate offers right now still 629 uh for a model y not too terribly much of a surprise though so the Catalyst that we have this week though uh do include CPI and PPI CPI is expected to come in at 0.1 month over Monon core at 0.
2 Morgan Stanley thinks it'll come in a little higher at 0 27 but won't really matter because these numbers are so low CPI year-over-year 31 34 for core year-over-year look the markets aren't even really trading inflation anymore I've noticed maybe about the last two months uh April and May of inflation data that have come out markets didn't really move much at all it's so sort of almost like we looked at the multivariant core inflation read uh and uh we saw that inflation was really just a blip in 2024 that sort of January February rise inflation has already been well offset to the downside if you want to see that visually take a look on screen now you can see here we had this nice downtrend of inflation in 2022 2023 you get that jump right here at the beginning of 24 which JP said hey you know the first quarter we think will just uh you know be a little warm and it'll be down from there well it wasn't wrong so far it's down from there and it's lower than where it was previously on the multivariate core Trend uh and keep in mind a lot of the sectors uh of inflation that are still hot or your typical car insurance health insurance and Rental housing sectors all of those massively lagging indicators for inflation so so really the inflation story is actually a good thing for Tesla rate Cuts coming are a good thing for Tesla though I I honestly I don't think that you know a quarter to half% rate cut is going to make much of a a difference for affordability uh we we all we do have two full rate Cuts priced in for this year with uh the first cut fully priced in in November and about an 82% chance of getting a cut in September uh so then we do have pce this a month sorry actually this a week as well uh sorry not PC PPI ppi is expected to come in pretty nominally 0.1 on the month of month point2 year-over-year uh 2.3 and 2.5 on year-over-year core both those last two numbers that slightly higher than the previous month but a lot of analysts on Wall Street saying the numbers of uh of last month are expected to be lower than this month and and that's okay they're already anticipating that a little bit of a higher read this month will be okay as you don't see as much of a flow through from a drop in Airline pricing and used vehicle pricing whatever point is the market is basically saying we think inflation will come in low but we're also already aware that if it comes in a little higher we're already comfortable with that so I'm really not seeing a negative inflationary Catalyst this week for Tesla if anything these should all be tailwins uh for Tesla stock this week uh as and and I don't think the Federal Reserve will be much of a big uh hoo-ha at all now as far as Tesla on a volatility scale look we called the bottom of the Tesla volatility and and we suggested that Tesla stock would generally rise on average about 1.9% per day and in the days following a volatility bottom we made that video I think it was Tesla stocks about to explode I don't we made a bunch of videos on it and we started with the course member live stream which we've briefly extended uh the sale on that just this there's a lot going on with people on holiday or whatever this we're going to push this into next week so if you want to bundle up questions but the bottom of volatility was June 7th and uh we saw that volatility move pretty rapidly uh essentially within the last couple weeks here as pricing has moved up right now volatility for Tesla is actually somewhat mid-range so you're roughly in line with the 30-day average volatility we still haven't seen the massive Spike of volatility you would expect to get uh following such a low I do think we're going to end up getting that Spike and it could come with earnings because I actually think these earnings will be pretty good I generally don't like playing earnings but the the going forward Ward period here in terms of excitement for Tesla is is all about hype around 88 uh people keep sending me messages like Kevin what what you know what do you think about the uh ex CEO of uber potentially being hired uh and that being announced on the robo taxi event you know it's literally every single time there's a Tesla event people are like oh my gosh but Kevin what do you think what if they do this and whether they do or don't the stock just goes down after buy the rumor sell the news move so I just want to set expectations that I do think the hype cycle is just getting started for Tesla we'll talk valuation just a moment uh but uh and I actually think that July 23rd's earnings will accelerate that hype cycle because see what you're going to get on July 23rd is not delivery numbers because we already know that it's not margins because of course we're going to get those but we don't actually think those will be bad it's not going to be cash flow because we we don't expect that to be bad like these these things should all be good it's actually going to be hype from Elon Elon is going to Hype the crap out of the 88 event come on baby this is the time to do it it's the a you know even if they're just subtle little hints and teases as to what might happen he is going to Hype 88 so really I think while it's possible Tesla stock keeps moving over this next week mostly what I think on you know no news from jpow and good inflation data uh in just sort of in line with the trend that we tend to see with Tesla it's possible that you take a a little bit of a breather on the stock price uh but once you get to July 23rd I think between July 23rd and 88 the stock probably goes up substantially so I don't know that you necessarily want to be out of Tesla stock between now and then and here's why I don't think 88 is mainstream yet I don't think most people on Wall Street or Main Street are really aware uh that there's this big like robot taxi event coming uh I think that realization will hit frankly in like the week before so after Elon Hypes it on earnings and then sort of like the week to two weeks before the event that's when you could really potentially get to sort of peak Euphoria now when it comes to valuation valuations you get a little on a stretchy side you're sitting at right now about a 102.2 4 PE ratio that's using uh a126 of projected earnings per share which is pretty low uh that's uh hold on let me make sure I have that right uh because that that seems a little off uh let's see here we've got and then we're going to do a PEG ratio analysis on this uh sorry it's $2 uh 46 $246 of projected EPS uh for Tesla which if I take $246 and I divide it by 250 or 251 divided by $246 yeah I get to 102 PE ratio so the 102 is right so your 102 is the PE ratio with $246 of projected EPS for year end uh and then you've got a 32.6% projected growth in that earnings level for each of the next four years on average that's how I like to calculate my pegs I don't like to use the growth rate of the last year I like to use the four years ahead and if I divide that in I get to a PEG ratio of about 3.16 it's pretty high typical manufacturer would probably be around 1.67 but it's not some of the craziest figures you know we've seen for Tesla and that's actually why I think you're going to just now start frankly uh leading up to the roboox event a period of euphoria in other words I think the Stock's just going to go straight up I'm going to explain why let's look at Tesla's PE and Peg and all that good stuff the last time it hit all-time highs so we're going to go all the way back here on the good old Weeble and uh take a look here uh this right here is our all-time high figure right $414 man those were the days huh uh anyway that that was pretty dang high and that was October no sorry November November 4ish of 2021 pretty dang crazy right uh and then take a look over here oh uh this is just a uh meetkevin.com Mastermind inperson small groups High worth connections oh yeah we're doing m a mastermind now if you want to learn more about it go to meetkevin.com Mastermind uh we'll get you on a call with our team and if you're interested in this this is uh super super high-end and a lot of folks have been really interested in that has been actually incredible how many folks have been interested in it but it's it's fine we got a plane I can fly around I can do these it's it's going to be very exciting I think it's going to be extremely helpful for a lot of people so check that out meetkevin.com Mastermind okay so 414 was our top at the end of 2021 our year end 2021 EPS was a162 so 414 rounding there a little bit divided by a162 put us at 255 times price to earnings that shows you the Euphoria of of Tesla at that given time and now the growth rate for the next four years you ready for that 125% that's more than a double then 29% 35.394891 this 55% growth rate you are actually trading oh I get a tire when I do 255 divided by 55 I get a tire here we go you actually get a p a PEG ratio of 4.63 okay so a PEG ratio of 4.63 at the top holy smokes that compares to where we sit now at just 3.1 uh six H okay you ready for some crazy math so in order to reverse what Tesla's price would be at Peak Euphoria by the robotaxi event watch this this is crazy we're going to take previous Peak Euphoria of 4.63 is a PEG ratio and then we're going to set that equal to the PE Ratio divided by growth that's just the formula for Peg right right side is what the peg was then left side is the formula for Peg okay we know growth today going forward for 4 years is 32.6 okay fine so to clean this formula up we're just going to uh go to the uh right side here and multiply by 32.6 and go ahead and get rid of that and then I have a fraction over here of X over 2.46 so I'll just multiply by 2.46 oh look what we get to x equals a very simple equation because we now go oops there we go price which is x equal 4.63 * 32.6 uh time 2.46 which is hallelujah $371 that my friends is Peak Euphoria it is a highly unsustainable number that valuation is ridiculous and it's stupid it should not be trading for that in the near term in the longterm it can grow into that sort of valuation what kind of valuation is fair and reasonable today this my friends this is exactly the same spreadsheet that I last modified in my Tesla's about to explode video before it exploded in fact if you go to the bottom of it you'll see right here uh I write uh present value of Tesla stock $180 so we did this analysis when the stock was $180 and I said look I think it's very reasonable uh for the stock to start pricing in 25 million vehicles to maybe 3 million Vehicles by the end of 2026 and as we know the stock market likes to price in the next 18 months ahead oh my gosh that's the end of 2026 and look at what our fundamental analysis said oh oh my gosh the absolute lowest end would be 189 which suggested we were essentially at the bottom uh but the more reasonable Figures were between 200 27 to 275 and that's only based on a 1.67 PEG ratio at 32.5% growth which is roughly where we sit so the the price of Tesla stock just went from below reasonable to reasonable but now that it has gone on that trajectory and we're about to go into the 88 hype cycle we have a real shot of going into true Euphoria and while at the same time you have companies like Nvidia going through a cycle of euphoria the cues are at alltime freaking highs uh and we're pricing in the future of raid Cuts coming in here I think it's pretty reasonable to assume this stock is about to get carried away with a substantially excessive valuation which don't get me wrong that's wonderful and I want to hold it because right here this is the SP where I think you buy it you're paying a reasonable price for Tesla roughly right now and and I understand it's it's we're pre- pricing in 18 months out right because we mentioned earlier that hey you know the current Peg is about 3.16 it's a little expensive right now but again we're pre- pricing in the end of 2026 because at the end of 2026 we think EPS will be about $450 8 okay let's write that down uh so we go current pricing $251 divid $458 puts us at about a 54.8 on the PE Ratio divide that by about a 1.67 peg there you go 32.5% growth so the math lines up that what you're paying today is basically pricing in the end of 2026 very reasonable for stocks to do that I I don't think it's it's horribly unusual ual it's it's possibly a little bit stretchy already because you're not really you know what are you going to grow into in the next uh 18 months fine as far as though this next month and two days for Tesla stock I think you could get to a period of absolute Peak Euphoria and now I want you to see the technicals the downside support for Tesla is $231 that's your 2 and half year downtrend $231 that's this um orange line right here the next stop which I suspect we're going to test this week uh is actually right here at $258 I think this is a critical point for Tesla and I actually don't think it's that hard of a point for Tesla to test I think 258 will get blown by uh I don't see this as much of an issue at all volume while it did slow uh on Thursday in Frid well I guess it' be Wednesday and Friday uh it's still almost double the volume that we've seen before this run really started uh which this run hasn't been going for that long it's only been you know 8 days now so I think breaking 258 is easy mode uh this is you know we might we might hit 258 get a little bit of a rejection clear the order book boom you're above it we already did the hard one clearing the 250 uh order book is hard I think an easy price Target easy price Target between now and roboox a day $295 now do I think we will actually make it to 371 which would be sort of like your pq4 level ah I don't know things would have to just be perfect and the momentum and the story would just have to be so juicy it's possible but between now and October 8th I would say 295 to 371 anywhere in between there that's what I'm looking at uh and so I do think that with volatility still priced mid-range you're not paying an unreasonable valuation for options uh I think you have a safety net that is about 10% below you that uh that 231 level but the upside this is what we call an asymmetric BET right the upside let's do 371 minus 295 76 bucks uh divided by two I'm trying to get the midpoint here between these two so let's divide that by two we got 38 so 371 minus 38 333 so that would be the average upside my take 333 divided by 251 that's an upside of 32% so you have a 3:1 upside bet here between now and robotx E day my take now is it possible that something crazy like the the model 2 or whatever is announced at the robotx event yeah sure is it likely no but anyway uh that's my take so if you want to learn more from my perspective on entrepreneurship business investing real estate building your wealth go to meetkevin.com uh if you really want uh inperson uh insights make sure to go to meet kevin.com Mastermind book a call with the team and if you just want to be a course member get my trade alerts for you know when when I'm finding low volatility reads or the financial and fundamental analysis that I'm doing you want to hear about that first in the course member live streams join any of the courses on building your wealth at meetkevin.com you get lifetime access you pay once and you get to watch me analyze companies every day we talk technical analysis fundamental analysis real estate Q&A you name it so see you there very soon thank you so much for being here and goodbye oh now for those of you that made it this far quickly on Amazon Amazon's valuation is only a 178 Peg which frankly for a manufacturer that'd be pretty good 167 being your typical AV uh average but there's so much more than that I mean you've got ads data centers uh yeah I me you name it they the production Studios this is a pretty incredible company they get a pretty fair valuation so I'm pretty long Amazon right now pretty excited about them uh anyway thank you so much for watching see you soon
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