저자: RenéSellmann · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거와 워런 버핏이 장기간 시장을 이긴 이유는 '적게 하기'와 '행동 편향 피하기'에 있다는 주장. 결론: 성공 투자의 핵심은 많이 사고파는 것이 아니라 좋은 종목을 고르고 장기 보유하는 것이라는 메시지. 버핏의 초기 투자법은 저평가된 '담배꽁초' 투자였으나, 멍거의 영향으로 '좋은 기업을 적정 가격에' 사는 방식으로 전환되었다고 설명. 버크셔 해서웨이는 1965년 이후 연 약 20% 복리 수익을 기록했다고 언급. 1965년 1,000달러 투자 시 현재 약 1,800만 달러로 평가. 멍거는 소수의 확실한 기회에 집중하는 접근을 강조하며, 대규모 투자 자문사식의 방대한 분석 방식과 대비. 투자는 활동을 늘릴수록 성과가 나빠지는 역설이 있으며, 게으름과 무행동이 긍정적 자질일 수 있다고 주장. 행동 편향(행동 편향 action bias) 사례로 승부차기 골키퍼 연구를 인용. 골키퍼는 가운데 머무르는 것이 더 나은데도 대부분 좌우로 뛴다는 결과. Daily Journal(멍거 관련 회사)은 10년간 소수 종목만 보유하며 거의 거래하지 않은 사례로 제시. 멍거는 대부분의 사람이 인덱스 펀드를 이기기 어렵다고 주장. 결론적으로 지능적 투자자는 행동을 줄이고 좋은 종목을 골라 장기 보유해야 한다는 메시지. 개별 종목이나 자산에 대한 구체적인 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
not a place like berkshire hathaway or even the daily journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened why has that happened and the answer is pretty simple hello fellow intelligent investors my name is renee zellman and as you can tell by that little intro clip today i want to talk about charlie munger's investment philosophy and how he and warren buffett achieved their very impressive investment track record so without further ado let's get started have you ever wondered how you can make your hard earned money work for you have you ever dreamed of building generational wealth and leaving a legacy my name is renee zellman and i'll teach you how you can manage invest your money with confidence a long-term vision and without losing your mind join me on my journey of intelligent investing and learn how smart people can compound their money effectively and accumulate well alright fellow intelligent investors so in that intro clip charlie munger asked the question why he and buffett did so well over the course of many decades now maybe we first first of all need to verify that these two investing legends did particularly well and were able to beat the market quite heavily so if we consider berkshire hathaway the business conglomerate that is owned and run by yeah warren buffett and vice chairman charlie munger well most of you will probably know that buffett is allegedly the best investor of all time achieving an impressive compounded annual return of roughly 20 since buying berkshire had the way back in 1965 and there's actually a website that allows you to determine how rich you would be if you invested a certain amount in berkshire hathaway at some point in time and i will add a link to that website in the description box below for example if you invested one thousand dollars in berkshire hathaway right at the beginning of this wonderful journey in 1965 your investment would be worth 18 million dollars today and if you invested one thousand dollars in 1990 that investment would be worth almost 50x your initial investment so almost 50 000 now of course charlie munger played an important role in achieving these impressive returns without mango's influence it seems very unlikely that berkshire would have grown to the size he had reached today and that's because buffett's investment philosophy during his early years is what is commonly referred to as a cigar but investment approach metaphorically speaking the garbage investors basically pick up a cigarette of the sidewalk and while this cigar butt is certainly yeah not very appealing and unattractive it is pretty much for free and thus the bargain price means that the last path left is essentially pure profit and to quote buffett himself you he said cigar but approach to investing is where you try and find a really kind of pathetic company but it sells so cheap that you think there's one good path left in it basically the approach focuses on buying beaten down businesses that are trading below air a conservatives conservative assessment of their liquidation value now what i think is important here is to acknowledge that there's a major difference between liquidation value on the one hand and intrinsic value on the other hand i think if you want to learn more about this distinction i'm just going to recommend my video on the concept of book value here now to get back to my point here charlie munger's influence was so important because in the cigar but investing approach this approach does not scale particularly well and berkshire pretty quickly reached a size that required buffett and of course his partner mugger to to transition to a more scalable approach in january 2017 in an interview with charlie rose buffett himself explained what yeah manga brought to the partnership and how he helped yeah make berkshire yeah what it is today so let me show you a clip from that interview uh both of you have chosen both wives and partners well um charlie munger added what charlie munger changed my views he refined him in a huge way in terms of looking for the quality companies and and and looking for the ability to make an investment that would work out well for five or 10 or 20 years as opposed to something like there might be one i call it cigar butt investing where there was one puff left in the cigar but the cigar was free so you picked up these disgusting looking things and got one puff out of them and went onto another one and that worked okay but it was small scale and it really doesn't build something satisfying so so he he kept forcing me in the direction of saying you know is this really a business we want to own for forever and and uh do we want to get a so it's like a marriage i mean you want to get associated with this person forever and it's a great way to look at things now in addition to that interview i can also highly recommend the berkshire 2014 shareholder letter in which buffett himself explains why charlie munger convinced him to break his habit of investing in cigarette companies he wrote it took charlie munger to break my cigarette habits and set the course for building a business that could combine huge size with satisfactory profits charlie's most important architectural feat was the design of today's berkshire the blueprint he gave me was simple forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices instead by wonderful businesses at fair prices and if you haven't read this letter i think it's a must-read for all investors and of course i will add a link to that letter to the description box down below now buffett's and berkshire's transition well that's not really the point of this video the point that i want to make in this video is why charlie munger and warren buffett were able to beat the market for so many years and before we listen to charlie munger here let me know in the comments down below what do you think why were the two of them able to beat the market for yet decades and why do you think you will be able to beat the market which is certainly a very challenging task so let's listen to charlie manger at a place like berkshire hathaway or even the daily journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened why has that happened and the answer is pretty simple we tried to do less we never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about canned soup and aerospace and utilities and so on and so on and so on we never had that dream we never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like jen cramer pretends it tends to have and and we always realized that we worked very hard we could find a few things where we were right and the few things were enough and that that was a reasonable expectation that is a very different way to approach the process and if you would ask warren buffett the same thing that this investment counseling did give me your best idea this year and you just followed warren's best idea you would find it worked beautifully but he was trying to know who he would give you one or two stocks he had more limited ambitions here and i knew grandpa i was right and so i always knew from the very first i was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have in a big investment counseling thing if they study a million things they can know a million things so there you have it the recipe for their success was doing less isn't that amazing i think successful investing is to some extent counter-intuitive because in many areas of life activity in and action is what moves the ball forward activity usually gets rewarded for example if you are an athlete and you want to be stronger what you do well you go and run more miles maybe you go more often to the gym and if on the other hand you want to be more knowledgeable you will read more books and talk to smart people but invest but in investing the more you do the worse your outcome and being somewhat lazy and complacent can actually be a positive attribute if you are an investor i would say that in a way i already addressed the idea of being lazy and doing very little in my recent video on the power of snap judgments in that video i presented a list of questions that allows you to reject investment ideas very quickly to focus on the no-brainers warren buffett he has made the point that disqualifying yeah investment ideas as quickly as possible is basically your main job as an investor and this allows you to consider many different ideas and as i just said to then focus on the no-brainers and as charlie meyer has pointed out focus on those companies where you feel very comfortable that you can actually understand the business yeah the company is engaging in and later during that daily journal meeting charlie munger made it very clear that he thinks almost no one can actually beat the market can outperform an index fund let me just show you the end of that clip and and of course the result is almost nobody can outperform an index whereas i sit here with my daily journal stock my berkshire hathaway stock my holdings in lilu's asian fund my costco stock and of course i'm outperforming everybody i'm 95 years old i friendly never have a transaction and the answer is i'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them so why can almost no one outperform an index fund well i would argue that what makes investing so hard is that it requires a certain temperament and as human beings we naturally suffer from many cognitive biases biases that try to interfere with an intelligent investing approach and obviously there are also psychological biases biases that make it hard to do very little this bias is commonly referred to as the so-called action bias which describes our tendency to favor action over inaction let me just give you a very powerful example here there's actually empirical evidence that human beings feel compelled to act even if this will lead to yeah a worse outcome there's a study by by ellie adal who analyzed how the action bias influences goalkeepers in the context of penalty kicks the researchers discovered that due to the yeah probability distribution of penalty kicks the optimal strategy for goalkeepers would actually be to stay in the center of their goal according to their data set if a goalkeeper stays in the center of the goal he or she would save 60 of the kicks that are aimed to the center which is far higher than the 30 savings rate when yeah the goalkeeper dives to the left or to the right however the goalkeepers were clearly affected by the action buyers because they are they hardly ever chose to remain in the center of their goal they prefer to either dive left or right in 94 of the yeah cases so the researchers explanation with this was actually quite simple basically doing nothing and then conceiving a goal amplified the negative feelings goalkeepers experienced so if they did something and then conceived a goal that wouldn't bother them as much as yeah if they would just stay in the center of the goal and similarly i think investors feel like they can improve their returns by doing a lot too but as we explained in the world of investing doing nothing can actually be an effective strategy to boost your long-term returns i think investors need to acknowledge that inactivity can also be a conscious decision and the daily journal is a great example showing that inactivity can work wonders maybe for starters the daily journal journal corporation is to some ways charlie mongers berkshire hathaway monkey has used the company and its cash flows to acquire a basket of yeah undervalued stocks or securities over the course of the last decade and basically he borrowed the same model that buffett has used at berkshire had the way for yeah decades too and if we just consider what charlie munger has done over the course of the last 10 years we can see that he did almost nothing and nowadays he only owns yeah five in fact it might be six because it seems plausible that daily journal has actually made an investment in a foreign company and by a byd which is not disclosed in 13 f filings but still it's a highly concentrated portfolio munger certainly invested a lot of money during the financial crisis when yeah lots of companies were available at discount braces but since then he has been waiting patiently for another opportunity which he might have found quite recently in alibaba actually i did a video on that transaction but clearly charlie munger is doing very little at the daily journal corporation all right i think that should be it for today the bottom line here is actually quite simple i think as an intelligent investor you need to be okay with an activity just be a good stock picker and then hold your investments for the long term and as always may your finances and investments prosper good luck you
Comments 0