저자: GeorgeSila · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 재조명. 2026년 1분기 실적 강세(조정 EPS 0.33달러, 매출 16.3억달러 +85%, 미국 상업매출 +133%, FY 가이던스 상향)를 근거로 펀더멘털 긍정 평가. 반면 AI 모델 경쟁(OpenAI·Anthropic), 정부계약 의존, 밸류에이션 부담(선행 PER 약 91배 vs 섹터 약 25배)을 리스크로 제시. 기술적으로는 50·100·200일선 아래의 약세 흐름이며 126달러 지지선 이탈 가능성을 언급. 결론적으로 장기 성장 잠재력은 긍정적이나 단기 주가는 약세 구간으로 해석.
다듬은 글
All right, thanks and welcome back to the Tech Corner. I'm George Sila, senior markets contributor here with the Schwab Network. On today's edition of Tech Corner, we're going to be revisiting Palantir Technologies. Now, Palantir, as we know, is a software company specializing in building and deploying platforms for data integration, decision-making, and operation scaling.
Initially, when the company was founded, it focused on the intelligence business, supporting United States counterterrorism investigations. Over time, the company has expanded its services to commercial enterprises. The company offers a suite of platforms, which include Palantir's Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, as well as AIP, which stands for its artificial intelligence platform.
Now, Gotham is used by defense agencies for real-time data integration and situational awareness, facilitating operations from command centers to tactical edges. Foundry architecture acts as a central operating system for data, allowing users to integrate, analyze, and optimize workflows. Apollo is a continuous delivery platform, which ensures secure software deployment in diverse environments.
Lastly, the AIP platform supports AI-driven decision-making by connecting AI models with organizational data. Now, Palantir faces competition from several companies in the software and data analytics space. Notable competitors include IBM, Snowflake, Oracle, and SAP. Now, Palantir's unique value proposition lies in its robust software platforms that integrate data seamlessly across various environments.
Its artificial intelligence platform stands up by offering a comprehensive framework for deploying AI models in operational context, enhancing enterprise decision-making. Palantir's platforms are designed to handle complex data challenges and provide a central operating system for diverse industries, which positions it uniquely against competitors who may focus more on niche solutions or specific aspects of data management and AI deployment.
Now, let's take a look at some more recent news for Palantir. Going back to May 4th of this year, the company reported Q1 2026 earnings and sales numbers. On a non-GAAP EPS basis, the company reported 33 cents, beating the estimates by 5 cents. This was up a phenomenal 154% compared to 13 cents for the same quarter last year.
Revenue reached 1.63 billion, a massive 85% year-over-year comp, and also up 16% sequentially quarter over quarter. The primary engine of growth for the company was the US market, where revenue exploded 104% year-over-year. Commercial revenue grew 133%, and the US government-based revenue grew 84% for the entire business.
Internally speaking, adjusted free cash flow surged to 925 million for the quarter, a 57% free cash flow margin, and Palantir ended up the quarter with about $8 million in cash as well as cash equivalents. And lastly, during that report, the company lifted its full-year revenue guidance to the high end of $7.66 billion, representing roughly 71% year-over-year growth.
Now, despite that most recent news for Palantir, let's also look at some other positives for the company. First off, the company has a partnership with Nvidia to create a sovereign AI blueprint, which positions it as a leading provider in the AI sector, potentially turning national AI capital expenditures into recurring revenue streams.
The company has also demonstrated significant revenue growth and is positioned to join tech giants due to its commercial enterprise and government ties. Palantir's AIP platform also saw increasing demand. Like I said, with the US commercial revenue growing 133%, indicating strong market penetration and customer retention.
Palantir also demonstrates outstanding top-line sales and earnings growth. For example, on a forward revenue growth basis, the company is expected to grow about 57%, while earnings growth is estimated to be over 80%. This highlights the company's strong expansion and increasing financial performance.
Lastly, as time goes by, the company's becoming more profitable as well. For example, on a trailing basis, the company's net income margin is around 44% of sales, besting the sector median, which is only 6% and significantly higher than the -7% net income margin the company has over the last 5 years.
Now, despite many positives for Palantir, we also have to address some concerns as always. The company faces increasing competition from AI model creators like OpenAI and Anthropic, which could disrupt its business model and growth trajectory. Palantir's reliance on government contracts, which require significant market share to justify its valuation, can face structural limitations due to federal policy changes and budget cuts, which could impact its forward revenue stream.
Despite strong earnings growth, Palantir stock may be considered overvalued with potential further earnings multiple compression if the current trajectory of revenue and earnings growth is not maintained. Other examples Other valuation metrics we have to consider include price to sales. From that standpoint, the stock is trading around 60 times trailing earnings.
Considering the market capitalization of around 322 million, as well as sales last year around 5.2 billion. Now, from an earnings multiple standpoint, the stock appears overvalued both relative to industry group peers as well as on an absolute basis. For example, on a forward basis, the stock is trading around 91 times earnings.
Compared to sector peers, which are trading around 25 times, the stock appears overvalued relative to the sector. However, if we actually see 91 times earnings relative to the company's 5-year average of around 129 times earnings, we can see the multiple compression in play. Now, with current multiples pricing in years of hypergrowth and very high margins, even a small execution hiccup can trigger a sharp multiple compression even further.
And lastly, if AI enthusiasm cools or headline program slips, sentiment can turn before fundamentals do. All right. Now, let's take a look at the technical analysis picture for Palantir. Now, as we can see over the last 52 weeks, the trend in Palantir has been weak with 1-year returns down 6% as opposed to the 24% gain of the S&P 500.
Year-to-date returns are down approximately 25%, which does correspond to weakness in the entire software application space. The stock has also underperformed the market over the last 30 and 60 trading days when compared to the S&P 500, suggesting weak relative strength. Now, when we look at price relative to moving averages, first off, the stock is below a falling 50-day and 100-day moving average, which now serve as resistance points.
Importantly, with the stock trading below its 50-day moving average, as well as the RSI below 50, the weakness in the stock price could continue to the next level of annual support of around $126. This level is important because it serves as support on multiple occasions, going back to July of last year, as well as several times in 2026.
Palantir is also trading below its 200-day moving average with a declining slope indicating a long-term downtrend. It also signifies that both short-term sellers and broader long-term incentive is bearish with the stock losing upper momentum and facing ongoing selling. Now, importantly, short-term buyers may step in if the price reclaims the 10-period moving average.
And intermediate-term investors may step in upon a reclaim of the 50-day moving average. Now, in summary, Palantir is known for targeting large-scale complex projects that often deter other competitors due to high installation costs as well as risks. With category leadership in applied artificial intelligence and a strong foothold across US defense and intelligence markets, and rising commercial wins, the deep integration makes deployment sticky.
With strategic partnerships and sales initiatives focused on expanding its reach and integrating its platforms into various industry groups worldwide. The company is well-positioned to join other tech giants due to its government ties and rapid AI platform growth. This could potentially offer high margins and strong free cash flows for years to come.
All right, that's it for this week's edition of the Tech Corner. Please don't forget to like and subscribe to the Schwab Network. I'm George Tillis. We will see you here next week.
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