저자: Kevin · 외국인
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영상은 Tucker Carlson·Jim Cramer 발언과 '25일 경고'로 퍼진 공포를 반박하며, 디젤 위기는 과장됐고 디플레이션 추세가 유지된다고 주장한다. 통화량(M2) 감소는 정상화·기저효과로 설명하며 대공황 경고는 과장이라 본다. 디젤 가격은 크게 하락했고 운송 경기 침체(JB Hunt 언급)가 지목됐다. 내일 GDP·PCE 발표를 주시하라고 하며, 밀레니얼 세대가 가장 쉽게 매도하는 '페이퍼핸더'라고 지적한다. 구글 검색 매출 의존과 AI 대응 필요성을 짚으며 장기 낙관을 밝힌다. 정확한 개별 종목 방향 예측은 제한적이다.
다듬은 글
here's the reality we have 25 days to avert economic catastrophe catastrophe is what will happen Tucker Carlson warns we have just 25 days left Jim Cramer's tweets of death a strike again and yikes the mainstream media is once again peddling fear uncertainty and doubt that the global Elite seems to be sending you messages to continue to be fearful to continue to move to cash because how dare you start acquiring assets and trying to build your wealth you need more fear and now we've found an element of fear that hasn't happened since the Great Depression and guess what if the media has it their way you'll run to your friends and family and warn them about this chart and what just happened which hasn't happened in the last 90 years of course my goal is to give you perspective on everything that is useful to your money now and that includes what the heck happened to Tucker Carlson's 25-day warning well talk about Jim Cramer's tweet of death in First Republic Bank oh my Lord then we're going to talk about this depression issue we'll also talk about what generation of investors were the greatest paper handers in a study conducted will also look at a critical data set that you should be prepared for Thursday and Friday two critical data sets and we'll uncover not only the answers to this but as a thank you for liking the video and hopefully subscribing if I've earned it I will show you a picture of Kathy Wood replying to me first Jim on March 10th Jim tweeted First Republic is new Focus very good bank well you know what that means not Jim Cramer loaded up the shorts as soon as Jim Cramer tweeted that first Republic is a very good bank and sure enough the stock fell from approximately ninety dollars per share all the way down to under 13 per share when Jim Cramer tweeted the First Republic torture will continue at its regularly scheduled 9 30 a.m and then of course as if On Queue First Republic Bank started Rising again only to fall another 50 percent yesterday now down to even lower than where Jim Cramer warned about the dangers coming can First Republic Bank is now sitting at just about seven dollars per share and a lot of folks are worried that this company which just lost about 40 percent of its deposits and has 10 times more debts than it has deposits is next to go bankrupt that is leading First Republic Bank to consider a 100 billion dollar asset sale so that way they could sell off notes and securities problem is now they have to be marked to market right nobody's going to pay market value for old loans that are worth less now because rates have gone up and they're probably gonna have to take some big L's but it'll actually raise cash which would be useful for potentially saving the bank but right now things aren't looking good and if you just bet on the opposite of what Jim Cramer does well you'll be part of the inverse Kramer Club we're having a field day now we've got to talk about Tucker Carlson in the 25-day warning which there are plenty of memes circulating that on Friday Jim Cramer said Tucker Carlson is great and has a great show and sure enough on Monday Tucker Carlson was fired but that was just a joke that didn't actually happen however what is this 25-day warning and then what is the depression issue and then who's the biggest generation of abrahamas what did Kathy would say let's continue after the 25 Day Warning here's the reality we have 25 days to avert economic catastrophe catastrophe is what will happen if we run out of diesel fuel ah yes remember the 25 Day warning this is from the diesel crisis and I'm bringing this up because well first of all what did I say about the diesel crisis yes prices might go up a little bit but is this really a big deal and are we going to run out of diesel well we actually run out probably not well that's what happened as usual things just weren't as bad as feared and I have to tell you this is the story of life when I find that I'm going on a vacation for example I always find that life always follows you your vacation will never be as great as you expect well maybe sometimes it exceeds expectations but oftentimes things don't go perfectly as planned right just like life two steps forward one step back and just like the fears that we have usually don't end up being as bad as we expect no don't get me wrong I've got a lot of fears as well I had had fears when I was a child and I lost my childhood home or when my parents were going through divorce and I had to live in a motel for months I was fearful of them or I've been fearful of my Adult Career but I'll tell you the diesel crisis and maybe some of the other things that we're going to address sometimes just don't turn out as bad as fear think about the diesel crisis everybody was worried the world was going to run out of diesel because we weren't going to have enough diesel to warm the countries in Europe and we're gonna run out of diesel which is so important for Trucking in America and the world was going to come to a higher stop and we were going to be in a Great Depression well as Elon Musk says fate loves irony and what ended up happening uh literally the opposite we are literally in a situation now where diesel is down 50 percent from last year's record even though gasoline is trending up a little bit it's Fallen a lot as well but diesel is plummeting one of the reasons is according to JB Hunt a transporter we are in a quote Freight recession the winter was a lot warmer even and which is weird because California had record snowfall because they had a lot of rain but that didn't necessarily make the winter warmer or colder in Europe we had a warm winter overall we had a relatively warm winter now you got Californians freaking out because we're about to get a heat wave and that's going to melt so much snow so rapidly California is going to have again too much water it's always too much or too little in California but focusing on this diesel issue look OPEC plus just massively cut crude oil production and usually that sends oil up gas up and Diesel usually and it did when they first announced their Cuts yet what's happening now well unsurprisingly oil and Brent are uh that is WTI the Western blend and Brent the international blend are basically back to where the levels were before the OPEC production cut and Diesel is plummeting why is that happening well a lot of folks are worried about the FED cooling the economy so much so that manufacturing activity is Contracting and slowing down isms and s p surveys are just not looking that great warehouses are generally overstocked from the pandemic and we've had massive plummets in Imports just look at UPS they had their first Revenue dip since 2009 this week and their stock fell about 10 percent companies have also been less accurate in predicting their Freight needs which is a sign that companies that were saying hey yeah we should have some good Freight orders coming you're going just kidding we don't need those raid orders anymore and what is that doing well it's screwing the truckers my heart goes out to the truckers that's actually a hard ass job and you're alone a lot my heart goes out to you and now what do we hear well you've got Bob Costello of the American Trucking Association he's a chief Economist there he says the trucking companies are seeing their fleets in the size of around two to three hundred trucks failing at a rate of one per week one trucking company going Banker per week this is also bad for trucking companies and individuals not just like a JB Hunt but also people making bets on this Trucking transformation with companies like Nikola or Hylian so beware okay but what about this Great Depression thing and I do want to also just quickly mention hey this is this was not to bag on Tucker and I'm not a Tucker apologist by any means okay I'll call out Tucker uh but you know I I I don't think people should be fired so we'll see what happens with that but I want to be clear regarding Tucker it's not just Tucker who was talking about this diesel crisis everybody talked about the diesel crisis it was trending for a very long time it's just useful for you to see how things weren't as bad as feared and that's going to be quite useful when we Analyze This Great Depression fear-mongering that's circulating on the internet right now it's going viral on Twitter it's going viral on YouTube we just have to be honest about it as a quick side note solely because it's funny did you know that Tucker Carlson and Don Lemon hired the same attorney to defend them that's true Brian Friedman a famous Hollywood lawyer who's negotiated multi-million dollar settlements for people like well actually he's still working on negotiating Chris Cuomo's he's looking for 125 million dollar wrongful termination payout but also secured payouts for Megan Kelly Julia Roberts Mariah Carey Seth Rogen Quentin Tarantino he's worked for all these folks even Chris Harrison from The Bachelor and Michael Jackson's estate okay sorry tangent but what about the Great Depression yes okay so what's happening well I'm gonna try to make this as simple as possible because it can get complicated but I trust that you are with me in wanting to get to the bottom of this so what's happening is everybody's freaking out about the money supply expansion having turned negative and people call this a massive economic warning they say the money supply hasn't contracted in 90 years in fact other periods that the money supply has contracted Nick I'm borrowing your chart dude I appreciate you I respect your opinion I think you're wrong about this one but that's okay we could still have coffee or beer together I don't know maybe not be we'll figure it out we can still hang out okay I still respect you man but Nick here on Twitter says the money supply is contracted in the Great Depression 1929 the depression of 1921 the Panic of 1893 and the 1870s banking crisis and in other words Nick says what amazes me is that nobody is paying attention to this and now we are about to see a massive amount of economic pain because the only time this happens is during periods of massive economic campaign well what the hell is actually happening here well to some extent Nick could be correct maybe this is going to cause a massive economic depression however there are some reasonable explanations for why this is happening the first is something known as a return to Trend okay here is the money supply expansion remember the global lead central banks they're always printing money to make your cash worth less I'm not defending the government I'm not an apologist for the government they are making your cash worth less so they have to pay you less money and so your wages are worth less this is why real income is basically negative for every income bracket it's part of the game it's how debt gets paid off easier and how capitalists make more money but guess what when you understand the game you invest in things like stocks and real estate and businesses and then you learn to play the game and then you also get wealthy that's my goal that's my goal of what to teach you on this channel it's very important but if we have a return to Trend that means we're either above or below Trend right well are we above or below it let's look at the chart oh we are well above a 2020 or sorry I should say a 2000 to 2019-ish level of Trent and so we're turning to Trend means of course the number is going to go negative so number one return to Trend that's a normalization number two base effects the chart that Nick showed you and other folks are showing you on the internet is a percent change chart of course when the Federal Reserve is printing 80 billion dollars per month when inflation is six to seven percent like they did in March of 2022 which is insane that they were printing money as little as 13 months ago well what happens when you stop and all of a sudden you print just one less dollar or you take one dollar out of circulation surprise surprise of course you're gonna go negative duh that's how the math works we have not expanded the money supply this rapidly uh hint ever think about that we have never expanded the money supply as rapidly as we did during covet in fact take a look at this chart here and what I want you to see is that the blue line that goes up and down it's pretty volatile the blue line that goes up generally goes up and down around a trend and so when you see between 1965 and 1985 it goes up around a trend you get a down there around the 1990s and then you get the slight increase from 2000 to 2020 end of 2019.
that is very normal and because again the global lead is printing money to make your money worth less we know that that is normal again not justifying it that's just what happens what is it actually mean like when does the expanding money supply create inflation well if you look at 2000 to 2019 the money supply as long as it expands at a relatively Trend level Hint it does not create inflation you driving at 50 miles per hour and running the money printer at the same rate of speed does not create inflation even though people say when you print money you create inflation that is not what happened between 2000 and 2019 yes we had like 1.5 inflation that's nominal that's not right away inflation right what does create inflation well using the car analogy when you step on the gas and all of a sudden you're going 130 miles an hour because you're driving from Tesla Model S plat on the freeway and you're trying to get away from a stalker well now you're going to create some problems and the economy that problem is inflation if you slam on the brakes and the rate of change is rapid you could also expect rapid disinflation okay so now go back to this chart what I noticed is I identified three periods of time with an orange arrow where the money supply expanded rapidly out of a recession now out of a recession is important because if it's expanding in a recession you don't necessarily have inflation because the economy is Contracting but out of a recession you had an expansion in 1972 1976 and 2021 and what happened with an average lag of 16 months thereafter well you guessed it you had rapid inflation which you could see here based on the red chart 23 months later after the 72 74 era in fact I put a little chart over here uh 23 months after the money printing downtrend begins in 1973 you have in an inflation Peak uh 23 months later after the money printing downtrend begins in 1977 it takes 38 months for you to actually hit Peak inflation uh and then in February of 2021 it took about 16 months for us to hit Peak inflation assuming that we've already hit Peak inflation now generally Peak inflation matched a recession that's scary because after you hit Peak inflation you actually were in a recession people realized after the fact oh damn when we hit Peak inflation we were in a recession oh crap well wait a second what did we actually have in the second quarter of 2022 when we hit Peak inflation negative GDP we were technically in a recession when we hit Peak inflation oh my God look at that now does that necessarily mean we have a Great Depression ahead of us well the one scenario where the answer is possibly would be 1982 but notice the money supply didn't really rapidly expand in 1982 it did a little bit after the recession printing out of the recession but what you had was a de-anchoring of inflation expectations and this is where I can warn you about what's happening tomorrow but let me first just give you a quick summary so we can put this money supply issue to bed okay so quick summary on money supply normalization return to Trend makes sense base effects makes sense that we're going negative and number two what you want to look at for the math nerds okay that's why I'm going to keep this really really short number three now I'm going to keep this really really short and put it in sort of little summary segment here you need to see a rapid expansion of the money supply at a rate of growth that is higher than Trent outside of a recession and then you get massive inflation in other words it's the first derivative it is the acceleration the rate of change of the rate of change right when you do that you can see that the positive rate of change or the acceleration of money printing in other words when you speed up how quickly you're printing money that tends to lead to inflation with a lag of about an average of about 17 18 months that's exactly what we saw this time so this is completely normal for three reasons it's normal it would be expected in fact if you just went back two years ago fed should have seen this coming why didn't they because the FED doesn't actually pay attention to the money supply as a tool for measuring inflation they prefer the CP light I mean the CPI report well I technically they prefer the pce but who cares same crap okay so what do we want to pay attention to tomorrow who is the biggest paper hander what happened with Kathy Wood come on man Kevin you're leaving us hanging here first tomorrow we are going to get GDP numbers now this is important because the GDP numbers are going to be indicative of do we think we might be trending towards a recession we are going to get a quarter over quarter GDP growth number and then that is going to be multiplied by four to get an annualized GDP number please don't use exponents I'm not doing a math lesson it is a simple multiplication number don't over complicate it if we get a 0.5 the survey says which is what the survey says we should look at an annualized GDP of two percent the prior read was 2.6 if we get a big Miss on GDP the stock market's gonna lose their poopy doopies and they're gonna have diarrhea because they're gonna be worried that we're going into a recession if the number comes in hot means higher for longer from the Fed so as usual maybe you want something close to estimate or a little bit soft but not Mega soft you get a big mess it's gonna be a problem next inflation expectations you don't want another Paul volcker of 1982.
we've talked about this plenty of times before but tomorrow you're not only going to get the pce release for the Federal Reserve but you will also be getting thos did de-anchor that comes out on Friday that's going to be very important now what other news do we have well first I'd like to say which generation is the biggest paper hander well congratulations Millennials are the biggest paper handers not only are millennials the biggest paper handers but they are the perfect example of apparently the group of individuals who have to learn this lesson on screen now that investors pay a steep price for missing the best days of O'Reilly here's the performance of ten thousand dollars invested into the S P 500 over 20 years ending 2022 and if you were fully invested that ten thousand dollars turned into about sixty five thousand dollars if you missed the ten best days you had half as much money miss the 20 best days eighteen thousand dollars Thirty best days eleven thousand dollars you get the idea and you start going negative you be careful I was one thing I've learned massive patience over this last cycle and it's not just timing the market once it's getting back in oh boy and I hate to say it but I'm your poster boy of a millennial so next I think they're going to start doing surveys of flip-floppers the good news is I'm heavily invested I am very very excited about our economy what's to come in the future and I'm a big believer in the sort of elongated Nike Swoosh over this next decade I believe wholeheartedly that in 2030 we're gonna look back and go damn those were some really good deals glad I bought no guarantees now what else we have to talk about let's talk about Kathy Wood all right so Kathy what indicated that she was concerned that 3M you know the industrial manufacturer the one that used to make a lot of masks and stuff the industrial manufacturer provided a negative growth uh to their revenues and Kathy Wood argues that she is or looking at 3M can usually be an indicator that the economy is going into recession and Elon Musk replied to Kathy Wood and suggested are they simply looking at old data or are they ignoring the bad data that they have Kathy Wood replied and said they're ignoring the bad data and this is a big problem that when 3M comes in with such negative numbers it's a bad Omen for the economy So I responded and said hey Kathy Wood how would you say Nestle works that's a Swiss company in a uh leading indicator scenario versus 3M their quarter One Price growth below spooked me a bit this morning and I'm in Camp disinflation but remember I don't just tell you what reiterates my thesis I'm gonna go oh crap when I see something okay I did not like that McDonald's has massive PP in their franchises again they raise prices on their franchises franchisees yeah the people running the franchises uh and McDonald's has pricing power over those franchises they expanded revenues at like 10 and they grew their margins that's great but they don't on the food side they actually had negative pricing power on the actual restaurants that they operate but anyway back to Nestle here so my initial thought was this represents likely volatile food categories but then again if they're able to raise prices because food prices are going up why are milk prices down nine percent and other food prices down and so Kathy would replied she quote tweeted replied me and I felt uttered anyway so Kathy Wood replied and said look at the volume declines the consumer is railing against higher prices I have never seen declines of this magnitude in unit volumes of Staples in short this is a short-sighted strategy to bolster margins and it will backfire to the benefit of generics and store brands okay a lot to unpack there because it was actually a phenomenal observation So I responded great point I Revisited the table and focused focused on this specific number that is known as real internal growth look at that chart on screen here this paints a different picture it actually real internal growth is basically saying hey how much when we take out inflation did our sales actually go up and in many categories they're actually negative rather than positive so now all of a sudden I write here in other words even though the company feels like they won because their pricing was slightly greater than their volume decline temporarily rewarding shareholders consumers are reducing volume and if competitors reduce volume uh or reduce price that is if other competitors are like oh our volumes are going down let's reduce price to compete like store brands and generics Nestle will be forced to lower their prices or end up suffering from a loss of market share now I don't think this is like a Smoking Gun that says oh my gosh short this company but I do think it is an indicator that maybe once again when we first look at data that says oh all the headlines Financial Times or whatever Nestle is Raising prices they have all this pricing power we actually look at the details it's like well their volumes are going negative in a lot of categories and it's maybe a red flag that we could see some temporary leftover inflation but we're still mostly on the trend of disinflation now this is bullish right well not according to the Wall Street Journal see apparently quants are out of buying power 170 billion dollars of global shares have been loaded up in the last 30 days the highest level since early 2022 and now positioning is near a peak and unfortunately quants may become sellers if we continue to downtrend yikes so are we in a slowing economy well certainly if you look at Google we are in a slowing economy not only did a Google and Google did decently they beat on EPS now some of that was due to some fancy accounting tricks we're talking about that in the course member live stream uh as well as Microsoft we're going through their earnings in detail but what's something that's very important when you look at the Google earnings report and I'm not trying to be a Google bear here I love Google I use Google Cloud I have friends that work at Google I actually think they're a phenomenal company the problem is 68.6 percent of their revenue comes from Simply Google search and Google Network Google network is falling eight percent Google search is only rising two percent and I don't think that Google is taking Ai and how it's going to disrupt search as seriously as Microsoft is Microsoft actually rallied because they're talking about multi-billions of dollars of opportunity if they get AI right they are being serious about AI they are being smart I think Google needs to get serious serious because 68.6 of their revenue is on the line so buckle up my friends we are going to go through a transition and no I don't mean a Bud Light style transition I just mean things are going to change now do I really think that we need to be extremely fearful and and if you find this inspiring I really encourage you to share this video like the video subscribe let me know what you think in the comments down below I'm I've been reading the comments I really appreciate your support this fear is it founded well things just aren't actually that bad in my opinion in terms of broad economic data could it turn bad of course things could get a lot worse maybe we're looking at information that is is you know lagging and and maybe maybe things are worse than they appear but there's one thing that I can tell you whether things are worse than they appear or better than they appear as long as you're alive knock on wood you're healthy and you can invest in yourself to make yourself more productive whether you take courses to educate yourself you read books you try to be a little bit more efficient every single day when you travel you pack your bag a little bit better so that you don't keep missing stuff when you go travel I do the same thing too I'm trying to get better every single time I do something and that's important you know people make fun of me sometimes they're like oh Kevin's changing his mind again yeah I changed my mind when there is a better tool when there's something that provides better value to the customer better value to my team better value to myself my family I will always change my mind and you should too and I will always promise to do the same thing with the companies that I operate for example my real estate startup house hack I will guarantee you one thing I will always flip-flop to what I think is the most profitable strategy and that is exactly what shareholders hire Executives to do and this is why I think Google needs to quickly flip-flop anyway thank you so much for watching this please stay strong Be Inspired invest in yourself and you'll get ahead of all of the drama thanks so much and we'll see you soon bye
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