저자: Kevin · 외국인
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은행·자동차·상업용 부동산 위기가 이제 시작이라는 주장. 모건스탠리 기준 2주간 대출 감소폭 사상 최대, 신용카드 잔액 약 1조 달러로 팬데믹 이전 고점 상회, 연체율 상승. 퍼스트리퍼블릭 예금 1,020억 달러 유출, 자동차 대출 'zombie loan' 부실 우려, 2023~2025년 상업용 부동산 대출 만기 1.6조 달러와 가치 40% 하락 가능성 경고. 현금 쿠션 확보, 마진 주의, 분할매수, 역량 개발을 권고.
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well the party's over unfortunately office Market is going to be destroyed you know hotels are going to be destroyed it's going to be ugly and so you have not in recourse mortgages and they're going to walk away and the bank's going to get stuck with losses the ruling Elite in mainstream media told us the banking crisis was over it's all good but what if it's not what if the pain is just getting started what if the real banking crisis is just now starting signaled by the auto crisis we are facing and the commercial real estate crisis we are already in all three of these are going to be subjects that we cover in this video but it's not just those three issues it's the aggregate that also looks bad the total of everything doesn't look that great especially when Morgan Stanley just observed the steepest decline in lending quote on record in just the last two weeks that's worse than the 2008 recession there's no way to make that sound bullish but it's a reality it's a reality that's hitting the hardest working and potentially poorest Americans first sadly this might just be the start so buckle up and consider that credit card balances in the fourth quarter Rose by 61 billion dollars to almost 1 trillion dollars almost a trillion dollars of credit card debt surpassing pre-pandemic highs this is no longer just a normalization things are starting to get worse than where we were before the pandemic the New York fed is also reporting that the current share of debt shifting into delinquency is rising for almost all types of debt the same time lending standards are significantly tightening with acceptable mileages for used cars already plummeting for lenders some lenders just blatantly shutting down and 27 of those of you struggling the most now having to borrow money through buy now pay later Services just to make it to your next paycheck people are paying for their groceries with buy now pay later just to get to their next paycheck add to that anyone with a credit card is facing a higher delinquency risk and statistically now than two us two weeks ago folks this is not just a March banking Madness from last month situation it's actually potentially A Renewed banking crisis driven by taking away ordinary American opportunities to access debt and to be able to survive with a living wage now we kept being told that the two-week crisis in March was just really a passing moment there were some risky Banks and let them fail and you know what we bailed out depositors the shareholders took the L at those Banks and you know what everything is good but maybe the global elite doesn't want us to know about something in the Nuance while they're saying there's nothing to worry don't worry you don't have to change Banks small banks are safe remember you should take everything they say with a grain of salt after all the elite were the ones who well first of all had money sucked away at Silicon Valley Bank and were caught off guard with tens to hundreds of millions of dollars stuck in Banks like Silicon Valley bank and they were flabbergasted that when the government's posted regulatorily mandated signs of FDIC Insurance limit 250 000 was actually real the elite panicked and people like Governor Gavin Newsom were floored so much so that they had to beg the U.S treasury Department and Biden Administration to please bail out his bank all without disclosing that he actually had Millions at the bank this should be an outrage to you but it's no surprise people started getting smart they withdrew their money that's exactly what happened at First Republic Bank who just recorded reported earnings First Republic Bank we just learned in the first three months of the year lost a staggering 102 billion dollars in customer deposits more than half of the 176 billion dollars in cash that they held at the end of last year now we don't have or should I say we didn't have the privilege of knowing what was coming back on March 10th but folks in Congress certainly did like Jared maskowitz a Florida Democrat who dumped chairs conveniently around the time of a banking hearing as soon as he had the privilege to of course his financial advisor was just recommending he happened to diversify around that time how convenient given that just three days later many of these Banks lost upwards of 40 percent of their Market value First Republic Bank also announced recently plans actually just yesterday plans to cut their Workforce by 20 to 25 percent in the second quarter and they're quote working with professionals on restructuring but don't worry everything is fine they say don't mind that they show 13.2 billion dollars in cash on their balance sheet and borrowings of 106.7 billion dollars don't mind that they owe over nine times as much money as they have cash on their balance sheet don't worry they're protected they say no wonder the CEO didn't take any questions during the company earnings call yesterday and instead just write a statement off making sure everybody knew that quote we are withdrawing all previously communicated Financial guidance thanks CEO of First Republic great way to be transparent see the aftermath of a Silicon Valley Bank continues to haunt us we already know that Regulators have spent over 22.5 billion dollars protecting customer deposits now the Biden Administration wants other Banks to pay up and reimburse The Regulators even though it was ultimately the government who failed to properly regulate these Banks and now they're shafting the blame onto other Banks potentially small and medium or other large-sized Banks short Sellers and Industry professionals knew the bank had massive problems not just that one but other Banks the problems were very obvious and blatant all you have to do is look at the fourth quarter Silicon Valley earnings statement and you could look at it and go oh Lordy this is a problem the financial times makes it even more clear though just in case we don't actually want to look at that report what do they say more than a year before any of these banks failed more than a year before outside Watchdogs and even the bank's own advisors had identified the dangers lurking at these Banks but no one not even the government cared they were all making too much money so instead they kept pushing their Banks to the Limit knowing the government would just bail them out and end up charging the good Banks for their recklessness of course maybe that was the point major Banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America ended up attracting massive deposit inflows through the banking crisis while paying minimal interest rates smaller Banks like Western Alliance reportedly lost 11 percent of their deposits just this year we're only four months into the year collectively our banks are now valued at just their combined Book value down nearly 40 percent from the start of the year which once again ends up hurting small and mid-sized Banks disproportionately this ends up leading to more tightening lending Now The Economist tries to suggest that well maybe we're overbanked maybe we have too many banks and they're not wrong to say the US has 4 700 bank and savings institutions or one for every 71 000 residents which works out to about 20 percent more than the European Union has one bank for about every 85 000 residents but the question now is what does this mean for average Americans and what do we do about it well let's start by making it clear that we should be expecting a lot more car repossessions The Wall Street Journal just suggested we could face a surge in car repossessions almost as if it's Christmas time for the Repo Man as lenders like Capital One and US Auto Titan lending standards so much or even close dealerships it's becoming increasingly difficult for consumers to finance their car purchases particularly those with subprime credit scores the ones who need their car the most to be able to survive Capital One just shut off all dealer floor plans that's a fancy way of saying all dealer line of credits are closed from Capital One for certain Auto Lenders the same thing was done by Ally Financial and guess what happened as a result of that well U.S auto saw its bonds downgraded leading to not only a tightening of lending standards but when they got rug pulled by Ally Financial they directly decided we have to close 39 of our dealerships and we are now unable to help people buy cars US Auto happens to be a dealer that doesn't cater to the rich or the elite no it caters to people of all walks of life all credit scores but now it can't offer any loans anymore so once again it's not just actually it's not at all the Reckless Rich who have had their credit Titan it's actually normal hard-working Americans who now find it harder to get a car loan the average monthly car payment is now as expensive as in some areas it used to be to actually rent a one or two bedroom apartment it's as high as 730 dollars per month for a car to get from point A to point B and potentially not even reasonable safety and comfort you're now paying 730 per month on average those who need a car the most are now least likely to be able to get one the average borrower of a U.S auto loan had a FICO score 5018.
that is subprime that is well into the subprime category these are the people who really need a car to be able to survive and get to work and Borrowers at US Auto on average took out a loan for 150 percent of what the car's actual value was specifically related to one tranche of bonds that were downgraded at U.S auto the average principal balance 20 199 with an 18 interest rate those are credit card rates at overvalued levels for cars that are not worth as much they're basically zombie car loans loans that are being made to the poorest of Americans who are least able to afford these higher interest rates at essentially predatory loans it's no surprise that the Wall Street Journal suggests 75 of these zombie loans will end up being able to default and the dealers will still be able to make a profit that's because of the insane upfront fees and the interest rates they're charging in the residual value they think these cars will have but remember they're lending assuming a lot of these car loans will default but that's only when they decide to right now the global Elite seems to be suggesting you know what too much even if 75 default we still make money that's not good enough let's just stop lending to the people who need it the most this comes at the same exact time as the cost to maintain or fix a car has risen 12.5 from a year earlier in February this leads to more vehicle repossessions as people can't afford to maintain their cars anymore Wells Fargo is now laying off all Junior underwriting staff as auto loans essentially start automatically getting declined for people with lower debt to income standards or people with worse credit scores in other words your credit crunch is here again for poor people but hey at least some discounts are starting to roll in for the first time in a year car makers are using incentives to attract buyers more than they had last year according to Kelly Blue Book car makers spent an average of 3.2 percent on incentives to move vehicles in other words a 3.2 percent discount to get you to buy however that incentive which averaged about fifteen hundred dollars at 3.2 percent was less than half the discount wealthy people got and we're not talking about numbers wise that is of course you would expect a more expensive car would have a higher dollar number of discount but the percentage might be similar right wrong poorer individuals got a 3.2 percent discount wealthy people got more than double an average 6.7 percent discount so once again it's getting tougher for the poorer Americans poorer people especially those who have to use buy now pay later Services just to make it to the next paycheck have on average twelve thousand dollars Less in savings than those who don't use buy now pay later services now brace for the Real Pain remember 2008 in 2008 many Americans lost their homes others said I don't mind if the real estate market goes down because I don't own a home and then they lost their job now some are warning exactly the same wave of trouble could be coming from the commercial real estate markets implosion which will exacerbate the pain not just in the banking crisis in The Lending crunch but also the job market consider that since 2015 Regional banks have accounted for 90 percent of the increase in commercial real estate bank loans yikes just what we don't want to hear smaller and Regional Banks taking on even more risk a bank like JP Morgan or Bank of America only held about six to seven percent of an exposure to the commercial real estate lending Market of their total assets smaller commercial Banks 25 to 30 percent this is leading Morgan Stanley to give a dire warning that between 2023 now and 2025 we will had a peak period of refinancing that is loans coming due for commercial real estate properties requiring refinancing or liquidation and given that commercial real estate vacancies are rising thanks to not only the desire to work from home but also the ability to work from home and the fact that office space is becoming less valuable or less functional we're expecting to see wider banking losses and that will likely trickle over to more widespread job loss look at this information from Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley is warning we could be facing a 40 percent decline in real estate values take a look at the following on screen now a recent Morgan Stanley read report assumed even more Stark terms for new office underwriting here they give you some costs of debt and what do they say about the entire office Market a 40 decline in office values from current levels over the next two to three years so in other words if you want to get an office loan you want to get a new office loan you're faced with everyone in the industry being assumed that valuations will fall 40 percent these right here these yellow bars represent commercial real estate maturities over the next five years let me add that number up for you it's right here 1.6 trillion dollars of commercial real estate will mature come due for refinancing over the next five years at the same time valuations are expected to be down 40 percent and Bank lending is substantially tighter what does that mean well it means big problems in fact listen to this regarding commercial real estate debt commercial real estate loans consist anywhere of six to thirty percent of bank loans six percent for the bigger Banks thirty percent for the smaller Banks if commercial mortgages default and mass banks would face significant losses and impact the International Financial system everything gets hit by this kind of pain absolutely everything and it's not just Banks it's also our jobs this is scary but it how do we know that commercial real estate vacancies are rising and how do we know that commercial real estate is the one especially office that has more potential risk than maybe apartment buildings well all we have to do is look at this chart right here from Reis which shows you this green line going up and the blue line going down in other words less vacancy for apartments more vacancy for offices these are quarter to quarter ticks so folks how do we prepare because we are likely to face job loss we are likely to face substantial pain over the next year now as much as I personally have the optimism that certain pricing power segments of our Market will continue via a volatile elongated Nike Swoosh style recovery I've talked about it many times before but that swoosh is going to take a long time potentially the rest of the decade don't expect those 2021 valuations to come back anytime super soon but what do we want to expect between now and well the end of this crisis well in my opinion prepare yourself in any way that you possibly can and how could you do that well number one in my opinion you want to keep a cash cushion it doesn't have to be a massive cash cushion just look at your expenses now usually I don't recommend a massive cash cushion because it's oftentimes out of generally six out of seven years we're in a bull market and it makes sense to just discount the value of the money that you have in your investment accounts but today when you're earning four to five percent on your cash it doesn't hurt to have a slight cash cushion and it's much better than having money outstanding in margin to where if we have a sudden flash crash you don't get eradicated that would be the worst case scenario this is why you want to be very careful with margin so be careful investing money that you need soon stay out of debt and dollar cost average your Investments when you make them also consider age-dependent strategies like making extra payments on your mortgage and looking for free cash flow and the safety of capital if you're older if you're younger you can often take more risk but you don't want so much risk that you end up getting wiped out so stay strong and remain productive also increase your skill set learn about artificial Intel Legends learn about prompting artificial intelligence learn about if you can anything that you could do to become a professional anyone of you watching this video right now and I've said it a million times before but I want to give you that inspiration you can become a licensed CPA A lender a real estate agent anything you want and consider the licenses that I've personally gotten I've personally sat and passed as a licensed contractor test the real estate agent license test the real estate broker license test the realest of the real estate lender the mlo test mortgage loan originator test the license financial advisor test I can keep going the point is I feel if I can pass all of those tests you can pass one and Elevate yourself become more valuable at your job and above all remain optimistic this is a tough time this is a hard time and it's always always very helpful to remember that there is light at the end of the tunnel you have to make it to 2025 get through this madness and yeah maybe stimulus checks may come in the future but betting on that is not a good strategy we don't want to bet on hope we want to bet on Surviving to the channel and we'll see you in the next one thanks again goodbye
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