저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 디자인 스튜디오 공개 행사(연말 예정)가 주가 촉매가 될 수 있으나, 옵티머스 업그레이드보다 저가형 밴/모델2 등 신차가 핵심이라고 주장. 세액공제 종료(9/30)와 ZEV 크레딧 상실로 마진·수요 압박 우려. xAI에 대한 테슬라 투자는 주가에 큰 영향 없다고 봄. 관세는 미국 제조사 보호 효과로 테슬라에 유리하다는 시각. 하우스해크 AI 발표 및 투자 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Lot of news out of Elon's expost this weekend about Tesla as well as potentially an X AI uh involved investment from Tesla. But we've got to talk about this because it's potentially critical to Tesla stock. Elon Musk saying just left Tesla design studio most epic demo ever by end of year. Uh and then reiterating ever.
Now, this is interesting because first, we've somewhat got a high bar in my opinion. I actually think the uh cyber cab demonstration day was pretty epic, mostly because we had the robo van uh which was a very cool sort of concept vehicle that was probably remote controlled but looked amazing. We had the Optimus demonstration that really showed us the components of Optimus robots, at least being capable of being teaoperated and moving very, very smoothly or programmed to dance very well.
Which still creates questions around how long can these Optimus robots actually function on relatively small battery packs that would end up fitting into a humanoid robot. uh what kind of weights can these Optimus robots actually carry over time that would not overheat the joints or the servo motors inside the various different components of the Optimus robot?
These these are all, you know, questions that obviously we still have. But Elon is essentially saying we're going to top the work that or demonstration that we've done previously with Tesla. Uh and so there are rumors around what it could potentially be. for example, here are with 23,000 votes, which is quite a bit for a poll here.
Uh, in the comment section, uh, what is it? I I I really wish there were more options given here. 38.5% of people think it's a NextG Roadster, which you know has been promised for, you know, what, seven, eight years now. An Optimus version 3 or something else. Uh I'll give you my opinion as to really what it should be and what would be a gamecher for Tesla and then of course we'll talk about that X AI uh investment idea and sort of my take on that.
So first uh I actually don't think it makes a difference if we do any kind of Optimus demonstration frankly because this is Elon leaving the design studio and I don't think an upgraded version of Optimus matters design-wise. I think upgraded versions of Optimus need better battery technology or better uh uh sort of motor technology in terms of the weights that these these robots can actually carry multiple times for hours and hours long uh in in their work.
I don't think that's so much a when I think design I think visually I don't think it's so much of a visual aspect that we really care about with Optimus right now. So, I don't think that Elon saw something in the design studio that he's excited about. The Tesla Roadster maybe, but this would actually be probably the worst case scenario for Tesla.
While it would be fantastic for enthusiasts, myself included, who would almost certainly line up to throw money, whatever the price, at a, you know, Tesla Roadster, especially some convertible version of it, which would be amazing. I don't think this is the mass market game changer that Tesla really needs.
So I voted for as you could see check mark something else and that's because even though that has the lowest probability on this Sawyer uh you know poll here I actually believe it is the most critical for Tesla that that design studio actually provides us a new vehicle of some type. Now, maybe it's the production version of the Cyber Cab that you could potentially buy.
Let's write down some of these ideas and think about the value that these could create. So, uh a you know, production version of Cyber Cab that includes the uh you know, newer FSD technology and the upgraded camera suites or hardware suites that the robo taxis have. This would be great. some form of production version of this uh or potentially even uh consumer purchasable uh version.
That would be great. Uh some form of uh other new mass market uh vehicle. This this would probably be uh the most critical mostly because mind you we've talked about this before losing the ZEV credits a zero emission vehicle credits along with the incentive which uh ZEV credits have already been lost.
The $7,500 vehicle incentive expires on September 30th. And then of course uh purchasing solar panels versus leasing or power purchase agreements. Purchased solar panels lose some of their benefits by the end of the year which is a hurt to Tesla because Tesla doesn't do PPAs or leases. They used to do leases.
They don't anymore. Uh and and they just sell them. Who knows? Maybe they'll bring back leases. But the point is Tesla's got multiple negative caddies that we're going to have to deal with in terms of actually hurting uh you know supply or sorry uh demand forces, right? when you remove tax credits, you hurt demand forces, but then you also potentially hurt margin forces uh in specifically ZEV credits, but then also, you know, if we have to lower prices because the $7,500 vehicle tax credits go away.
Now, we really need a higher margin maybe mass market vehicle. To me, this would be the most critical element for Tesla because yes, while the goal of Elon is, hey, this is a bet on autonomy. Uh, I really think you have a potential uh mass market here that is willing to eat up a, you know, even some form of other $30,000 car.
I don't know what we want to call it, or Mercedes style, like Sprinter van style car that maybe has uh that's that's inexpensive, no frrills, but it has more space than any other car before. This to me would be interesting if you could create something that was, you know, no a no frrills version of the Mercedes Sprinter van.
Oh, you want nine seats? Perfect. You want cargo space, perfect. And one of the things that I think is so critical about these sort of the Sprinter van idea, uh, is even though it's not really model 2esque, that's an option as well. I don't know that people are convinced that they're going to be willing to buy twodoor vehicles in the United States.
I think four-door is probably minimum in the United States. But what's fascinating about if you ended up with some form of low no frrills van for Tesla, you really unlock the construction environment as a potential buyer, which in the world of AI, you have more people talking about trades anyway and trades potentially being more resilient to artificial intelligence, potentially great market.
So my take here is the most critical would be either a sprinter van uh style like no frrills version or uh you know again some form of model 2 that would be critical in terms of a design. Uh the next best case scenario could be a production version of the cyberc cab or some kind of consumer purchasable vehicle mostly.
Why? Uh so they can uh do what they do best manufacture and mass uh you know and and and with scale and you get it. I don't have to write it all down. That's my opinion on on the design studio. Now who knows we'll have an epic demo. Who knows? Maybe they'll create like a December demo or whatever. It's also pretty common for Elon to sort of dangle the carrot of like some really new exciting news or whatever coming in the future.
Uh and and typically it does well for the stock leading into the events. The events are almost always buy the rumor, sell the news. But that's okay because you know there just ends up being a new rumor afterwards. So that's just sort of the the game that we play. In fairness, this robo taxi launch in Austin so far it's been super super quiet, which is actually perfect.
That is exactly what you want if you are a Tesla investor. You do not want Tesla robo taxis in the news every day because you know if they're in the news every day, it's bad. So the fact that we are not hearing of Tesla robo taxis on a daily basis and they're slowly expanding the uh uh you know area in which we're providing robo taxi service.
Great. As I wrote here, a big pee pee. Very nice. very very nice. Uh so you're getting this expanded service which is great. Now there's also this talk here SpaceX to invest $2 billion uh into XAI which uh you know this has then also led to rumoring that maybe Tesla should also invest into XAI uh and that uh you know the latest discussion has been that no Tesla would not end up taking over XAI.
There wouldn't be any kind of merger but maybe Tesla would invest into XAI. To me, I don't know that broadly this really matters because Tesla does have a a good chunk of free cash. We could calculate that quickly. I want to say it's somewhere around $10 billion of free cash. So, even if they invested two or three billion, it doesn't really matter.
I think it's a great way for Elon to uh you know raise capital easily. I don't know that it makes much of a difference for the stock although it does give shareholders the opportunity to gain exposure uh to XAI and it kind of gives retail investors exposure to XAI via a public vehicle which is interesting.
Uh I know that XAI is a cash burning uh you know company so it makes sense that they need the extra cash. We've got about 36.9, let's just call it $ 37 billion of cash and short-term investments. And if I take off current liabilities of uh less worried about this, take off about call it 26.6. It gives me about 10 and a half 10.5 billion dollars of free cash, right?
Because we got we need money to pay our bills. People always when they talk cash balances, they forget that companies also have bills to pay. And free cash flow might fall without the ZEV credits. See, if we go to free cash flow on a 3month basis here, we only have free cash flow of 500 million, call it about 600 million bucks of free cash flow, but ZEV credits were I think all of that uh it's not listed on this.
So, we have to go to the uh financial statement for this, but it's somewhere between $4 to $600 million. So, most of the free cash flow now is coming from ZEV credits, which means yeah, we've got about 10.5 billion available free cash. I personally think it'd be so nice to see that, you know, Giga Mexico.
It's obvious that we're not going to do that now under this uh you know, tariff drama that we're we're dealing with, which I think long term is is problematic for corporate EPS across the board and across the United States. something probably unpriced in markets right now since we're so convinced and that you know taco is here to stay basically.
We'll see. Really topic for a different video. But if you've got about 10 and a half billion of free cash, again I I personally I think it'd be wonderful if we had a product that we could mass manufacture and expand, but we're not in that sort of environment. Uh we're not going to do a gig of Mexico.
Maybe we could do a solar facility in the United States. But again, uh even if you have homegrown solar, are you really going to be competitive against China against in in this environment? I don't think so. I don't think that's the perfect growth trajectory for Tesla. I personally think a mass market vehicle that people could get excited about here would be the way to play it.
You know, the the the problem that you really have with Tesla uh is you're you're not creating something new and juicy and exciting for people to buy. The Cybertruck was great, but it was very niche. The benefit that Tesla has, remember a big benefit Tesla has, China isn't here. China is is such a competitor when it comes to introducing new models of vehicles and providing so much choice for people at a low uh or inexpensive price as they control so much of the battery manufacturing globally.
One of Tesla's greatest benefits is that they are American and that tariffs are protectionary. So, wow, that's crazy typing there. Are protectionary. Who do tariffs protect? Tariffs protect US manufacturers. What is Tesla? US manufacturers. So, the more you hear of tariffs, the more you should think protectionism.
And it protects companies like Tesla. So companies like Tesla can benefit substantially if if they provide new designs and new products for to excite American consumers and get away from this reputation of, you know, just being this person who's going to wave the chainsaw around in politics and cut people's government jobs.
The more we move away from that and we move into f a focus on providing great quality products again, the more I think Tesla uh can uh can win bigly. So I'm excited. Uh, you know, hopefully hopefully honestly maybe we even get both. You know, who says it has to be one new vehicle? How about a lineup of two or three new vehicles?
That to me is exciting. Although knowing Elon, uh, it's honestly, it's probably more likely to be this. Something about Cyber Cab, uh, maybe a consumer purchasable like fleet version like, hey, want to launch cyber cabs in California? go buy 10 cyber cabs and we'll help you and and then you deal with the liability of it and cleaning them or whatever wouldn't surprise me.
And I think that kind of stuff would also go viral amongst like passive income with my robo tax. Yo, check out my passive income business with robo taxis and like people around the United States are scaling it out as opposed to Tesla having to scale it out themselves. Some thoughts again, XAI investment doesn't really matter one way or another.
Uh, I don't think it's really a needle mover for Tesla's valuation. And if anything, it's just an easier way for Elon to raise money for XAI without having to take on expensive debt. And I kind of think that's why SpaceX is investing in XAI as well, because again, it's easy to just sell one of your other cashrich company shares and then not have to pay uh the higher interest rates to some of these other uh companies.
But anyway, talking about AI, we've got a big uh AI announcement coming with House Hack, which I'm really excited about. So stay tuned for that. Probably Saturday, between now and Saturday for that. So that'll be really exciting. Remember, you can always invest uh into House Hack. It's open to nonacredited investors for now.
That might change soon, but uh check that out at househack.com. Read the uh offering circulars and uh perspectes to understand your risks in investing. But uh do check it out. offers a 5% uh yield paid on a monthly basis plus all the upside uh in the company stock which is exciting. We actually think if we if we really go double down on on uh our AI trajectory that uh we are woefully undervalued as just a real estate company.
Uh and that's you know what we're selling uh we're raising money in now which is kind of exciting. So anyway, stay tuned for tha.
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