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Michael Beugry is betting against Nvidia. Nvidia invested $2 billion in the same firm. And now Nvidia is stuck between a price of $230 and a ceiling of $250. One side may be in a hurry, the other may be wrong, or both may be right at completely different points in time. At the close of trading on September 28, Nvidia shares were worth $231.88 cents.
Just a few trading sessions ago, they were reaching $249.19. Then the price rolled back. So is this just a healthy pullback before new growth? Does Michael Beugry see a much bigger problem that the market is ignoring? In the next 10 minutes, I'll show you what both sides are betting on . Hello everyone, this is Sheila Wong.
Let's start with the graph. After all, the graph shows where this struggle is actually taking place. On September 17, Nvidia shares were trading below $210. By September 24, they reached almost $250. That was a jump of almost 19% in about one week. And the breakthrough day looked certain. Nvidia closed at $243.48 with trading volume of over 24 million shares.
But the next two trading sessions changed the mood. On Friday, the stock closed near the $237 mark. Then, on September 28, they rose to $245, reversed sharply, and closed near $232. This is a clear price deviation. But don't miss one important detail. The breakout occurred at a volume of about 24 million shares.
The next two days of decline were accompanied by trading of only 11-13 million shares. This does not guarantee a rebound, but it does indicate that the selling is not yet as aggressive as the buying that caused the breakout. When interest rates rise, investors are generally less willing to pay a high price today for profits that may appear years from now.
So I wouldn't consider one bad day to be evidence of the collapse of the entire business history, but it's definitely worth considering a deviation of around $250. What is Michael Beugry really betting on? Now let's talk about Michael Beugry. According to the latest update on his Substack, reported by the Daily, Beugry added two “bearish” positions on the business.
Micron, Palantir and the semiconductor exchange-traded fund. This sounds radical, but there is an important limitation. We don't know his exact price of entry into this business. We don't know the full size of his position and all the option strikes. So when someone says Michael Beugry is betting against this business, it doesn't automatically mean he believes in a stock crash tomorrow.
His published argument largely focuses on the coming downturn in the chip market. Berry believes that today's inflated chip prices are due to temporary supply shortages. If supply eventually catches up with demand, these prices could fall, and stocks tied to the AI spending boom could become overvalued.
For investors in new businesses, this raises even more questions. Today, the company spends huge amounts of money on purchasing graphics processors , energy, and data center capacity. So what happens if the GPU shortage becomes less acute? What happens if customers gain more leverage in negotiations?
What happens if the market becomes less willing to fund aggressive expansion of AI infrastructure? Nvidia may still grow, but investors will become less willing to pay the same valuation multiple for that growth. This is a bearish scenario. Berry recently revealed that he has increased his bearish position on Nvidia and other AI and semiconductor-related securities.
At the same time, Nvidia is making the opposite bet: in March, Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in Nvidia. The companies also announced a deep strategic partnership spanning AI factory design, inference software, fleet management, and future generations of Nvidia hardware. This isn't just Nvidia buying a few shares for publicity.
Nvidia is investing real capital in Nvidia, helping to scale a full-fledged cloud platform for AI. The partnership also aims to support Nvidia customers in deploying more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia systems by the end of 2030. So, this is not a situation where one side considers Nvidia a real company and the other a fictitious one.
Both sides understand that Nvidia has real technology. Both sides understand that the demand for AI infrastructure is real. The difference is in the price. How much future success is already reflected in Nvidia stock, and how much capital will Nvidia need before that success becomes a steady cash flow for the shareholder?
On March 11, Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment and broader strategic partnership with Nvidia, including collaboration in AI factory design, inference infrastructure deployment, and fleet management. Now let's look at price point number one: $250. Now let's mark up the graph. The first level is $250.
This is a breakthrough line. Sellers have repeatedly appeared in the range from about 245 to 250. For me, intraday movement above 250 is not enough. I want to see a daily close above this level and strong trading volume. Ideally, volume should be closer to the 24 million shares we saw on September 24th than the 11 or 13 million we saw during the pullback.
If Nvidia closes above 250 and stays there, the previous supply zone around 280 will be back in sight. And this movement can happen very quickly. Why? Because New Vis has a lot of short positions. According to the latest data on the percentage of short positions, approximately 18.5% of the shares in free float were sold short.
A high level of short positions does not automatically mean growth. It's just fuel. Price level number two, from $228 to $238. The second level is $228–230. This is an immediate support zone. The low on September 28 was approximately $228. 230—this is also an important psychological level . But there is another reason why this area is important.
If we measure the recent rally from around $210 to $249, the midpoint is around $229. This makes this area a very natural area for buyers to protect. If New Vis holds here and then recovers above 238–240, that would tell me that short-term buyers are coming back . But if the stock repeatedly tests 230 and cannot provide a strong rebound, this support becomes weaker.
Support is like the floor in a building. When you jump on it for the first time, it may seem sturdy. But if everyone keeps jumping into the same place, eventually you'll wonder if it'll hold up. 223 dollars. The support level is around $223. This is more important for a short-term trend. Using daily closing prices through September 28 , the 20-day moving average is approximately $223.
The action also responded several times in this area. A pullback to 223 will not automatically be a bearish signal. NVDA may test this level, form a higher low, and continue a broader uptrend . But a confident daily close below 223, especially on high volume, would suggest that this is no longer just a short pullback.
In that case, I would watch the 216–218 range. This zone is close to the 50- day uptrend . And if this support also falls, then 200–205 will become a realistic decline zone. There is also a short-term catalyst for growth. Starting October 1st, NVDA is increasing prices on select Nvidia GPU products on demand.
For example, the price for using an Nvidia B300 instance increases from $7.85 to $9.50 per hour of GPU usage. The price of the H200 increases from $4.50 to $5.50. This means that demand is high enough for the company to charge more. But don't make the mistake of applying this price increase to every dollar of company revenue.
Large customers with long-term commitments may receive different prices and discounts. So, the real question is very simple. Will Newbie be able to raise prices and maintain high usage? If the answer is yes, this supports a bullish scenario. If customers start to resist, investors may begin to question how long-lasting this pricing power is.
New business published prices for individual B300, B200 and H100 arrays on request on October 1, increasing them by about 17-21%, while long-term commitments may receive discounts. So , we come to Sheila's conclusions and the paid transition. So, who is winning now? When it comes to business, Nvidia has strong recent evidence.
The demand for AI infrastructure remains high. New business raises certain prices, and Nvidia has invested $ 2 billion in the company . Michael Bury is still asking the right financial questions. How much capital does New Business need and what future value will each share of New Business ultimately have?
On the chart, neither side has won yet. Above 250, the bulls take control. Below 223, control passes to the bears. Between these two levels, New business is still in a zone of uncertainty, and this is where technical analysis reaches its limit. The chart can show us where traders can react. He can't tell us whether New business is fundamentally worth $230, $280, or $200.
To answer this, we must examine the company's capital expenditures, customer refunds, active capacity versus contracted capacity, convertible debt, share dilution, and the real cash flow that can ultimately be attributed to the stock. This is exactly what I cover in my full review of Newbie Members Only Club promotions.
A free video will tell you who can win the next step. Deep analysis asks who might be right about the business. So, write in the comments what will happen first. Will Newbie shares close above 250, or will they fall to 223? And more importantly, what price level would change your mind? If this analysis helped you, subscribe to Sheila Wong Investing, because on this channel we don't just follow the headlines.
We monitor the price, business, and value behind each stock. This video is for educational and discussion purposes only. This is not personalized financial advice. So, my friend, that's all for today. See you next time.
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