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hey everyone me kevin here obviously the stock market dropped after news that donald trump tested positive however when news hit that joe biden treasury secretary mnuchin nancy pelosi mike pence and white house chief of staff mark meadows tested negative the stock market started recovering yet the stock market might be extremely blind to two very dangerous catalysts coming over the next two weeks and in this video i'm going to put together facts that i've prepared for you and some of my conclusions in terms of how we can prepare for what might happen over the next two weeks this means if you have short-term positions or you are concerned because you have a lot of margin or you've got money on the side and you're thinking maybe i'm looking for a buying opportunity this video is for you and let me tell you there are a lot of individuals getting this wrong i'm hearing a lot of people saying oh well trump's symptoms are getting better everything's fine we got nothing to worry about or oh well you know biden tested negative all these other people tested negative we're good it's not how it works that's not how it works it's so wrong it's so terribly wrong and that's why in this video we're going to talk about two very important catalysts and i'm going to provide facts to back up my data so let's get into catalyst number one i'm going to pull this up on a flow chart and of course before i pour the pull this flow chart up i gotta remind you to use the link down below for life insurance next to the weeble link you can et apple pay android pay for it and you're done it's that good you've got peace of mind in a pandemic okay here's the flow chart day negative four this is when we expect that donald trump was exposed to kovid at the nomination a ceremony for supreme court a justice or future supreme court justice judge barrett day zero this is when trump really started experiencing his first symptoms this is why we say day negative four because you don't immediately have symptoms with covid even though in theory donald trump could have been contagious on tuesday the night of the debate so stay tuned we'll talk about biden in just a moment but on september 30th donald trump was sleepy and lethargic this was day zero on october 1st we know and we're gonna take the blue shield blue cross data i will link this down below if you go to blue shield blue cross and you look at the time frame for covet symptoms you'll see that on day one it is very common that on your first day of symptoms you will have a fever of 100.4 or higher chills and congestion well on day one donald trump had exactly that he had fever chills and congestion and he also despite this went to the bedminster new jersey fundraiser event all right now on day 2 through 10 this is where people are like oh his symptoms are getting better notice that on day 2 through 10 they take away the fever part i don't know why it's just how it is anyway for day two through ten you usually have a cough you've got some congestion and maybe you've got some fatigue okay not that big of a deal for day two through ten day two is actually the day that donald trump did experience cough congestion and trouble breathing but no fever it matches like the outline perfectly he was given supplemental oxygen due to his trouble breathing he received regeneron's polyclonal antibody cocktail he was transported to walter reed's medical center and he was able to walk which some say you know he only did that at this point because it's better to walk now than to have to be wheeled out of the white house later it wouldn't look so good anyway on day three that is today donald trump's doctors say that donald trump is 72 hours into the disease and this freaked people out because they're like oh my gosh this means trump's been sick since wednesday and then they came back and said well we really mean three days that today is day three saturday's day three and this kind of aligns with what we have here because see we've got october third saturday that's today is day three day two was friday day uh one was thursday but day zero that evening when he first started having symptoms was was also a day to consider so yeah that is about 72 hours ago so this the time frame here is right it just didn't come across very well in the media here's the problem though folks the problem is october 8th which october 8th is a thursday i believe i'm just going to confirm yeah october 8th is thursday day 8 is when a fork in the road could begin a fork in the road is usually created between day 8 and 12 and this is when you'll either go severe or you'll go mild if you go severe you could experience acute respiratory disease syndrome which is when you have extreme difficulty breathing and you might be placed on a ventilator or go into the icu this would be very very very bad if this happens late wednesday or potentially as late as monday the 12th the stock market is going to panic we'll talk about amounts in just a moment if donald trump has mild symptoms then there's a good shot of the stock market recovering we would probably expect to see those mild symptoms or donald trump's recovery by the end of next week as well if you are invested in regeneron stock if we go mild regeneron and rem deserver you know the stocks that are the companies that manufacture these drugs yes good gilead would be very very happy if that happens if we go severe both of those companies are not going to do so well in the stock market but we're going to talk about the broader stock market here not just those two stocks day 12 is monday october 12th and will either be in the clear or will be substantially worse and by the way if you want a reminder in terms of how you could track the days notice the date exactly matches the days that's because day one was october 1st and then of course after this there could potentially be prolonged damage or you didn't make it okay so that's catalyst number one but let's now talk about catalyst number two what if biden pelosi or other leaders get covet oh but wait a minute kevin they tested negative how could they get covered uh so look i talked about this before like three and a half weeks ago on september 11th i made a video called a warning for recovery stocks and i literally talked about the failure of some rapid testing and now you have to be careful with this rapid testing stuff and you have to be very cautious and so here is something that we need to understand the fact is covid testing isn't as great as we believe it is donald trump and the white house used kova testing as a way to express that they and around and those around them were free from coven and therefore didn't have to wear masks well this is where the problems come up if we go to what mit says and this is what i talked about three weeks ago so if this is familiar just skip forward like a minute but take a look at this is what mit says the odds of a false negative on days past exposure are very high remember when i said donald trump was exposed t-minus four days well even on that day on wednesday day zero t-minus four days donald trump would have a 67 percent chance likelihood of testing negative even though he's technically positive that's called a false positive and once you have symptoms on set which donald trump has you still have a chance of a false negative uh and now fortunately we do have confirmation and i mean not fortunately that he has it but confirmation is good to have so fortunately we know that donald trump is covet positive so we can seek the proper treatment uh so that's good once you start showing symptoms the odds of false negatives go down but what does this tell us this tells us that biden and minutian and pelosi and all these other other individuals they could still be in this false negative territory and this could create a very large second potential problematic catalyst think about this if biden was exposed on tuesday and trump was likely contagious during this period of time then it's quite possible that biden might not experience symptoms until sunday or monday at the earliest and he might not actually test positive until monday tuesday or wednesday if he ended up catching covet from the debate so it's still way too early to say oh biden tested negative he's fine we got to be careful monday or tuesday it is still possible that biden could test positive for coven now if he doesn't test positive on monday and tuesday and wednesday then we're probably going to move into the clear with biden but treasury secretary mnuchin is a day behind biden treasury secretary steve mnuchin last met with trump in person on wednesday the 30th which during that time trump was also a likely symptomatic so we've got some time to go here but let's analyze how these could actually end up being market moving catalysts so what i'm going to do is i'm going to pull up a little spreadsheet that i put together here on exactly this and we can kind of deduce okay what do we think that this actually means all right so here we go if mike pence who currently has tested negative ends up testing positive this is very likely to be market moving and will probably hear that he would test positive i would say sooner than biden and minutian if he ended up getting it you know especially at that saturday event it's possible he could still be testing with false false negatives if mike pence ends up getting coveted then that means nancy pelosi could end up running the country especially if pence and donald trump end up falling you know more ill from coven uh i actually do not believe that a pence positive would move the market heavily though because nancy pelosi would have some more control over potential stimulus negotiations which the market is kind of hoping for stimulus positivity which nancy pelosi is certainly more likely to institute than pence is biden could test positive as we said between sunday and friday of next week though probably between sunday and tuesday of next week if he ends up getting positive this would be very bad it would reduce the odds of stimulus it would increase the odds of election uncertainty the election could get delayed it could falter there could be a lot of issues here i do think that the market might move down somewhere between one to five percent if biden test positive if donald trump's condition worsens this would likely create even more damage because it would be a massive signal that even the best health care in our country is failing this in my opinion has a very high likelihood of destroying recovery stocks with a 15 to 25 percent fault and could substantially hurt the broader market i wouldn't be surprised if we saw the broader market pull back five to ten percent quickly quick note if this happens the stock market pullback is likely to compound and we might see multiple days that are read in these amounts which could mean that a really bad outcome of this well outbreak could potentially crash the market as much as 20 to 30 percent over the next week to week and a half so these are very important beginning catalysts to consider and so when you see this chart and you just see kind of like five to ten percent quickly i mean in one day but the next day is probably gonna be bad too so these are things to keep an eye on and remember we expect this day eight to be somewhere around thursday or late wednesday of next week now the media is currently saying the next 48 hours are the most important which actually means saturday through monday that's fine i don't know if i buy that obviously if we start hearing about deteriorating conditions sooner well then at least we should be prepared for that now so be prepared that it could be as early as you know now through monday but my expectation is day 8 is going to be a lot closer to thursday to next sunday that's that's more of the time frame after a symptom start and this is also something donald trump's doctor said donald trump's doctor said we're worried about day seven to ten which is the inflammatory stage so be careful for that if pelosi or minutian test positive this could both of these could reduce the chances of stimulus and uh both of them met on wednesday wednesday evening at length so if minutian was was sick or anybody was sick around them it's possible that one of them could end up catching covid this would probably hurt the market a little bit less than if trump's condition worsened i think trump's condition worsening is much more impactful than other people catching covet or or testing positive for coven and then a minutian or rather meadows testing positive probably wouldn't affect the market too much because generally the market sees mnuchin as somebody who's more as let's do a smaller package for stimulus negotiations not sure that that meadow's a positive here would have much of an impact uh his position in the white house seems to be more driven by donald trump's wishes and the negotiation over stimulus is more driven by pelosi or minutian so how does this all come together well what what all of this says is that next monday through probably the monday thereafter that this next entire week that we're up against has a very high likelihood of being not only extremely volatile but potentially extremely negative so first of all this is a big warning if you've got short-term positions or you're highly levered be careful these are risk factors if you're looking for a buying opportunity my estimation is that your biggest buying opportunity is going to be in the event that donald trump's condition worsens now knock on wood we don't want anybody to get sicker we're just looking at this from the point of view of investors and from that point of view next thursday to next monday seems to be a more important catalyst so if you hear things like oh he's better just got a sniffly nose on sunday or monday or tuesday in my opinion that's not the most important target the most important target time frame is late wednesday thursday friday and next weekend so put those dates on your calendar very very important if during this week we in addition to that or even separately have a biden positive minutiae positive or pelosi positive those could be additional compounding factors that could drag the market down even more for example this is what a terrible week could look like monday tuesday mnuchin and biden end up testing positive and then come thursday donald trump uh his condition worsens then we might see the market sell off even more because now it's like oh my gosh the country's tools aren't even working to protect the president and great now more people are testing positive as well they might have the similar experience because obviously we don't have what it takes to prevent this from getting really bad best case scenario by next thursday friday donald trump is better the therapeutics are working and we don't have to worry about all of this craziness that's my expectation these are the things that i'm planning for so when it comes to buying i'm probably not going to be looking to buy unless one of these catalysts ends up happening and i'm going to keep my money on standby until one of these things uh either happens or does not happen we'll see next week is definitely going to be a big week we're also expecting potentially and we've said this for a while but uh the latest news is that we might be expecting a stimulus deal by mid this upcoming week so you've got a lot of catalysts coming up this week for massive volatility be prepared stay frosty keep some money on the side be careful with short-term positions and folks we'll see in the next video
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