저자: AudaciousMoneyWitch · 외국인
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영상의 결론은 채권 금리 상승과 과대평가된 주식시장으로 인해 주가 하락 위험이 크며, 주식 저점 확인 전까지 매수를 서두르지 말아야 한다는 것이다. 마이클 버리의 학자금 대출 탕감 비판: 버리는 학자금 대출 탕감이 막대한 경기부양 자금을 풀어 인플레이션을 자극하고 결국 금리를 7%까지 끌어올려 주식시장을 폭락시킬 것이라고 경고한다. 탕감 규모는 약 5000억 달러이며 약 4300만 명이 대상이다. TLT 채권 가격 하락: TLT가 100달러 지지선을 하향 이탈했고 추세는 여전히 하락이므로 장기금리 상승이 이어질 것으로 본다. 금리가 인플레이션보다 높아야 물가가 잡힌다는 논리를 든다. 금리 및 연준 전망: 2년물 국채 수익률은 약 4.9%(1년 전 1.3%)로 급등했고, 연준 기준금리 종점은 약 5.4%로 예상되며 그 수준이 예상보다 오래 유지될 수 있다. 금리 인하 기대는 후퇴했다. 주식 밸류에이션 과대평가: S&P500은 실질금리 기준 약 2.5배 과대평가되어 있다고 주장한다. 실러 CAPE, 토빈 Q, 버핏지수 모두 역사적 상위 85~90% 구간에 머문다. S&P500 PER은 장기 평균으로 돌아왔을 뿐 싸지 않고, 나스닥 PER도 장기 평균 바로 아래다. 룰 오브 20: PER과 인플레이션율의 합이 20을 넘으면 고평가다. 현재 룰 오브 20 기준 S&P500은 현재가보다 약 25% 낮은 수준이 적정하다고 본다. 인플레이션 재상승과 이익 감소가 겹치면 추가 하락 여지가 있다. 이익 전망: 기업 이익은 후행지표이며 경기침체 이후에야 감소가 본격화할 것이다. 경기침체 가능성은 여름쯤 본격화될 수 있다. 리스크 요인: 러시아의 우크라이나 공세 확대, 미·중 긴장 고조, 지정학적 리스크에 대한 시장의 안일함이 급격한 가격 변동을 유발할 수 있다. 투자 전략: 주식 저점 확인 전까지 현금을 보유하고 기다리되, 장기 수익이 기대되는 우량주 목록을 준비해 두라는 조언이다. 홍보성 내용(후원 플랫폼, 도서 판매)이 포함되어 있다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 전반적으로 약세 입장이며 주식은 아직 바닥이 아니라고 본다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry predicts seven percent bond yield is coming stock market will be crashed by the falling bond prices TLT just crashed below 100 once again inflation has peaked narrative is dead at least in bond Market's point of view famous investor Michael burry says terrible consequences are in store if student loans are forgiven because a student loan is a form of debt which is credit or money if student debt is Forgiven that means a lot of stimulus money is released back into the U.S we all know that's how we have this inflation problem in the first place giving people free money loans credit whatever you want to call it how about they start forgiving everyone's mortgages then everyone will have free houses let's not forget that the student debt problem is built on a foundation of terrible major choices why bailing Generations out of those bad choices will mean more bad choices tuition hikes and terrible consequences for America what kind of problems let's just talk about it why it will cause seven percent interest rate or bond yield and crash the stock market why the stock price will fall down and make new lows pawn Breeze comments come as the U.S Supreme Court considers Tuesday oral arguments over President Biden's student loan forgiveness program which was legally Justified based on the lockdown the program offered up to twenty thousand dollars of loan forgiveness per borrower an initiative which has been put on hold while the high court debates the case we're talking about half a trillion dollars and 43 million Americans 500 billion dollars can buy meta Plus Twitter in today's market price of meta is worth 452 billion of dollars plus 44 billion dollars when Elon bought Twitter imagine owning both and make them better the 51 year old birdie Who Rose to feign betting against the housing market before the 2008 crash took on well into six figures of educational debt going to UCLA and then Vanderbilt University for his medical degree he began his residency at Stanford University but dropped out to focus on investing that's another 500 billion dollars of stimulus money ready to be sent out to the 43 million Americans pockets while our inflation is still above six percent officially who knows the real inflation number is at interest rate is going higher according to the bond market just look at the TLT chart it broke a hundred dollars support heading lower again the trend is still down interest rates must be higher than inflation rate to actually cool inflation down so seven percent interest is needed to bring six percent inflation down to two percent Michael bury tweeted it last year and said there are second wave of inflation I think we are experiencing it now investors shouldn't bet on the year-to-date balance inequities to continue as the stock market remains wildly overvalued based on current interest rates interest rates have surged over the past year with the two-year U.S treasury note yielding just over 4.9 percent as of Thursday morning compared to just 1.3 percent a year ago such a swift surge in interest rates has put pressure on Market valuations while at the same time exposing vulnerabilities in corporate profits that's a bad combination for stock prices history implies that for the current level of real rates the S P 500 multiple is around 2.5 times overvalued such a steep over evaluation comes at a time when companies will face margin pressure from higher interest rates due to higher cost of capital demand Destruction for certain goods and potential asset write downs and credit losses there is a growing risk that investors have returned to complacency when it comes to geopolitical tensions and potential energy Market risks such complacency could lead to Wild price swings if Russia ramps up it's offensive against Ukraine or if tensions between China and the U.S escalate the terminal fed funds rate is now expected to hit about 5.4 percent later this year representing another hundred basis point increase from current levels furthermore the FED could keep rates around that 5.4 percent level for longer than many are anticipating that's a market shift from expectations of rate Cuts just a few weeks ago and could keep strong downward pressure on the stock market it's ultimately a double-edged sword for investors as solid economic data pushes off of recession but also pushes off a raid cut from the Fed because government keeps giving people free money hot or warmish prints in the U.S such as Jobs CPI retail sales or Services PMI meant the odds of imminent recession had declined but at the same time suggested rates must either get more restrictive or stay restrictive for longer the U.S stock market continues to be overvalued on several measures exposing equities to further downside stock Pickers love bear markets suddenly many companies on their watch list begin to look attractive but despite the protracted Equity Market downturn valuations almost no matter how you slice or dice them continue to look rich it's true the S PS p e ratio has fallen precipitously over the last two years but that was from nosebleed levels and now it is now only back to its long-term mean valuations cannot be said to be an Ambiguously cheap at an index level the nasdaq's PE fell sharply to but it is only just below its long-term average long-term returns are what that matters to most investors and on that basis disappointment is likely to await anyone buying stocks the most popular measure of long-term valuation is the sick Lily adjusted PE Cape ratio buying the index when this is historically cheap typically leads to well above average 10-year returns and vice versa the cape has fallen but still remains in the top 90 percent of all its readings this is the same for other measures of long-term value such as Tobin's Q the ratio between a firm's market cap and the replacement cost of its assets and the price to sales ratio Buffett's favorite measure the market cap of U.S equities versus GDP also remains elevated even with the equity Market down over 17 percent from its highs these measures remain in the top 85 to 90 percent of all of their readings this is a market far from screaming buying opportunity of a lifetime it's hard to make the case that the stock market has bottomed until we see a broad-based and noteworthy decline in p e ratios and stocks are unlikely to cheap in significantly until they adequately price two major risks inflation and therefore rates and earnings we think about how these relate to equity prices by looking at the rule of 20 which states that over the long term the p e ratio and the inflation rate should sum to 20.
when that sum is over 20 the market is said to be overvalued and undervalued when it is below 20 when inflation is high as it was in the 1970s nominal earnings rise so PES should adjust lower to take account of this today the rule of 20 implies an s p 25 percent lower than its current price that implied value is destined to fall further as inflation begins to rise again as it looks set to do and also as earnings fall it Bears repeating that earnings are a lagging indicator and they will only begin to decline after the recession which continues to look odds on even as early as the summer has begun but until there is a re-rading lower in stocks across the board it will be tougher to build portfolios of cheap quality companies that have the potential to post strong long-term returns stock Pickers should buy their time for cheaper valuations ahead just wait those dogs can't go anywhere won't go anywhere get your list of stocks ready though if you want to see my list join my patreon today become my good boy I will send you my list and this is my book time and this is my client's collaboration book it's already yours adversity equals success such an amazing book with such incredible authors order your copy today
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