저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준(파월)이 인플레 기대를 낮추기 위해 나쁜 경제 지표를 계속 쌓는 중이며, 5년 브레이크이븐 인플레 기대는 낮아지고 있다. 현재 수익률곡선 역전은 사상 최대 수준이며 경기침체 고통이 남아 있다. 연준이 피벗(U턴)하면 주식시장이 크게 오를 수 있으나 그 시점은 아직 멀다. 장기적으로 디플레이션 가능성과 2~3년간 완만한 주식 회복(나이키 스우시형)을 전망한다.
다듬은 글
do you want to know what the hell is going on in the stock market do you want to know why all of a sudden inflation is falling and the FED is still being a little B do you want to know why I'm not effing leaving and why I'm actually wearing the rocket ship emoji because of the ship the the actual like pirate ship yeah I know that sounds insane but it's the easiest analogy and the best analogy I could think of to help you understand what is going on so we're going to draw the ship after I draw the ship I'm going to explain three very important things about the Federal Reserve to you they are critical and I am going to show you some charts that are very important but first I am going to draw you a pirate ship all right there you go get the little Crow's Nest up here and we'll have a little flag okay all right why did I do this well it's because right here you have Jerome Powell okay he's up here in the Crow's Nest being like Oh damn inflationary problems Jerome Powell is driving the ship of the economy and every single time we get bad news what I want you to think of is a crate of bad news being loaded onto the ship what Jerome Powell is trying to do is load on as much bad news as possible on the ship without sinking the ship and he is doing that to try to get inflation out of the economy what I want you to know though is this piling on of bad news like producer price inflation data yesterday which came in terribly low huge misses on the producer price inflation data huge revisions down on the producer of price inflation data for the prior release and retail sales data coming in so bad that all of a sudden we're like this is great oh wait no this is bad that's that was basically the Market's reaction yesterday right because the market for an entire year has been saying Kevin we need inflation to come down we need retail sales to come down because that'll lower pricing power at companies and that'll reduce the pressure on inflation well that's what we got yesterday we put more bad news on the ship which is really good for inflation coming down but guess what people are worried about now now people are like but wait a minute Jerome Powell isn't you turning why is he not you turning the water is starting to get really close to the edge of the ship because the more bad news we put on the more the ship comes lower and the more the water is starting to Splash over the edge and what we're getting now is people realizing at first yay we have we have crates of bad news let's call it food for the ship yay yay we get to survive longer on the ship great inflation's coming down but oh it's getting really heavy on the ship with bad news water is potentially starting to spill over and so everybody's looking up at Jay Powell going bro starting to get wet down here what the f bro and j-pal's like must get inflation down load more food onto the ship and people like dude we can't we're gonna start sinking man Jay about do some must get inflation down and so people are like dude this this guy's blind he's up in his Ivory Tower he's blind about what's happening down here but he's not he knows exactly what he's doing and that is what I'm going to explain to you in this video he is playing the psychological fiddle he is a mastering psychology right now and you must know what he is doing so that you could properly position yourself in the moment this is literally why what I'm about to explain is an example of why I have a program called stocks and psychology of money because there are wild things when it comes to investing and I have found that the best bets are made when it is psychologically difficult when everybody is telling you you're an idiot that's when some of the best bets are made but what I want you to know is the expectations play that Jerome Powell is making the psychological play and it's all defined by this chart here which I will remove myself from this chart as soon as I remind you that on the 30th of January in just 11 days t this price will be going away because the price will have a substantial change the coupons will be going away we're going to something totally different and you have a three month at least three month price guarantee that you're getting the best price ever for the next three months if you joined here in this January now I also oh oh I also have another big piece of news uh I think starting 5 15 a.m tomorrow or Monday depending on when my coax cable comes in course members have voted on this and it's good for the public too starting at 5 15-ish we're thinking about doing from 5 15 California time to six live stream where I cover CNBC Bloomberg News articles and just kind of like we just wake up and have coffee together and kind of get a feel for what the Market's doing in the morning and we'll start the course member live stream at 6am and do the Bell together in the course live but the public will get that for free but anyway this is the chart right here folks this is the chart of inflation expectations okay and there are a few things I want you to know about this so This is called The Five-Year Break Even chart and it tells you what inflation expectations are the way it works is it basically takes the difference between inflation protected treasuries and non-inflation protected treasuries you don't have to know what that means okay I'm I don't want to overwhelm you we're confused here and I'm not saying you're not smart enough to understand it I know you are but I'm saying it doesn't matter okay what I want you to know is this matters is that finally we broke a new low over here not by much though this low right here is 216.
this is 215. but for the first time ever yesterday we actually broke the low on inflation break evens now you might be thinking yourself who cares will Jerome Powell does because remember what I said he is playing with our psychology if Jerome Powell came out yesterday and said great news y'all have loaded enough bad news on this ship we could stop putting bad news on what do you think everyone would do everyone would start having a party break open the boxes start drinking start eating and it would effectively okay I'm not playing science here but inflate the ship so to speak okay I'm trying to get the best analogy I can to make this simple here in like actual stock market terms what would that do as soon as Jerome Powell comes out and says good job everyone we have succeeded at conquering inflation what do you think you're going to do what do you think every CEO in America is going to do it's literally what was projected Yesterday by Morgan Stanley okay I'll pull that up but what do you think your grandma is going to do what is my daddy going to do on Robin Hood again what is everyone and their mom going to do the second Jerome Powell says we have succeeded at conquering inflation everyone in their mommy is gonna go YOLO stocks everyone's gonna buy stocks like crazy the stock market's gonna double is faster than you could even say double in many stocks uh you know this is like the FED U-turn I'm pretending right uh forecasting so to speak uh you know fed says Hey we've done enough we could cut rates right like when this time comes and the problems of the economy the inflation is gone everybody's gonna go crazy maybe we're gonna start taking debt again they're gonna start buying new computers they'll buy new iPads they'll go I'm rich again in the stock market they'll buy everything in and then guess what happens then you recreate the monster of inflation it's literally what Morgan Stanley basically started warning us about yesterday now this is actually positive but look at this you have Morgan Stanley talking about CEOs getting more confidence in their economic Outlook that when the FED pivots we're going back to the Glory Days I'm not going to read you all this but that's basically what it says this is actually good news because it actually tells you even if we take some water onto the ships the banks are very very confident that this ship will not sink so we might have to you know start bailing out some water on the ship but banks are extremely confident that we are not going to sink so that's why you're getting so many people starting to try to pre-predict in the FED U-turn now a lot of people are like but wait a minute like Kevin like this is bad news right uh like you know the market sold off after PPI data came in and and I'm like stop kidding yourself we got rejected by the most simple trend line that everyone and their grandma and my seven-year-old can draw on the S P 500 big deal we got rejected because we went over the 200-day moving average and we hit the hardest trend line that is literally over one year old we got rejected off it big deal we are still up from the bottom right so it's like it's not that bad and Jerome Powell knows that Jerome Powell has a goal though and I'm going to show you exactly where that goal is right after I thank you for being here really appreciate it uh you know I know you have choice in whom you're watching and I really try my best uh to to provide value I just I I want to be grateful because I you know I wouldn't be able to do what what we're doing here on the channel and growing with you all if it weren't for you so seriously like cheers if I if I could meet you in person like I met two subscribers yesterday in person I cheers to you too even if you're Mormon and you just drank Diet Coke or regular Coke I don't care I'll cheers to that too okay all right this is Jerome Powell's map so if you're like Okay Kevin he's driving a ship you have like the stupidest analogy ever but I get it it makes sense um oh my God sorry I can't put stupid line on this um there we go uh what's your point about this dumb chart here's my point you saw how I said we broke the low right on the break evens because Jerome Powell is like we must fight inflation right and now everybody's like damn he's serious about this he's going to keep loading more on this plane or not the plane sorry the the pirate ship uh we're gonna start taking on water let me show you where he flips okay so I'm gonna take this all the way back to 2018.
Jerome Powell flipped over here right here here I'll put a beautiful Arrow there in December of 2018 is when Jerome Powell flip-flopped and in December of 2018 inflation expectations where inflation wasn't actually really a problem we're about 1.5 I personally believe we must go under at least 1.6 or potentially lower before the FED flip-flops so at least under 1 6.
uh let's see here Jan Fab March this is about March of 2020 here you can see this is the end of the quarter right here so that's probably about March 23. this is about when the fed u-turned the last time so it's also possible that things have to break for the FED to U-turn but I actually don't think it has to get that bad but we want this chart to go down this again is a break evens chart and we are nowhere near yet the Fed u-turning but but but but that doesn't mean you don't want to potentially be in stocks now because a lot of people are like Kevin why don't I just wait to get into stocks and I'm not trying to show you to get into stocks I don't care what you do with your portfolio it's not going to make a difference uh so uh look at this downtrend this downtrend is why we're off stock market lows because the more this Trends down the more we know we're getting close to the U-turn and this is literally the market pre-pricing in the bottom that's why it's entirely possible that the S P 500 and the NASDAQ have already bottomed because this trend is moving down as painful as it is in the short term to look up at j-pow and and us going bro we're starting to sink over here and him going we must continue to fight inflation and you know it's scary because water's starting to come on the ship but not only is water starting to come on the ship you personally in your life are like I'm getting sick I'm getting scurvy you know he's not letting me crack the box of of uh of the bananas I'm not getting my vitamin C I'm getting scurvy and and in like relative to our actual world that is my business income's going down I'm doing less deals as a real estate agent I'm selling less product in my small business less people are coming to my restaurant retail sales are down we might actually be going into a bad time like duh yes then we're going into a recession the yield curve is the most inverted it's been since my chart doesn't actually go back any further it's it's so inverted and and that tells you you are you are going to take on water that is what the inverted yield curve tells you is it it screams at your face and it says we are taken on water and you are going to have to get off your AWS and work harder because we need you to help bail out the crap storm that now we are going into but that is the point the FED is using that fear of water coming into the ship to force inflation expectations down and by forcing expectations down he actually achieves killing inflation because again everyone and their mommy will go buy a new boat or be an idiot and buy an airplane in a recession uh even though I think that was a great purchase okay I don't need to justify that anymore but anyway uh if everybody does that it's a big problem but what do you have here this is the inverted yield curve we are the most inverted we have been at Max it's not as bad as the 80s I know that but I can't go back on the chart because again it's it's set to Max right now but we are more inverted on the yield curve right now than we were in the Great Recession or the.com bubble and it's the re-steepening of the yield curve that tends to be painful right 2008 and 9 were the big what painful ones that was pain okay that's the recession part where it's like crap my income's down okay over here crap my income's down you know during during the.com bubble which does suggest yes there is going to be more pain going forward before we have good news but a lot of people say the only reason it's this inverted is because the FED is forcing a recession as soon as the FED u-turns it's back to Glory Days so ironically that's why you have the stock market not at bottom because people are pre-pricing in that the real potentially only pain is the Fed don't get me wrong there could be structural issues we we might not see them yet you could have a Black Swan event where all of a sudden something breaks and we get circuit breakers in the stock market again and we actually hit our real stock market bottom we get the real vix Spike and then the it forces the FED U-turn right because then then the ship will start sinking so in fact the sooner that happens the better the sooner that happens the FED U-turn happens but you also need to make sure that inflation is down enough because if you don't and the FED u-turns too soon then you go back to problem number two remember I told you I tell you three problems about the Fed the historic flip-flop so you go back to the 70s and 80s the Fed was start stop with rate hikes and rate cuts and that actually LED inflation expectations in part to unanchored inflation expectations went up for multiple reasons though and that makes this comparison so difficult people compared to the 1970s and 80s and say well inflation expectations were unanchored yeah well no duh we left the gold standard this was the first monetary experiment that we ever had with Fiat of course people thought we were going to become the Weimer Republic again because we'd never actually gone through an inflationary environment before and not seen currency collapse so of course inflation expectations were high and unanchored so of course we had to crush the market by raising interest rates to 18 to 20 percent and prove that no this this experiment of paper money backed by nothing other than your trust uh uh led to substantial breakdowns in expectations so yes and and I I say this full well in knowing that the words this time is different are very dangerous those are the four most dangerous words investing and I say that to you clearly because I want you to know we don't know if like something could break and and what could happen out of that we don't know but there are massive differences the fact is there are massive differences between now and then we have inflation expectations plummeting and now as long as inflation continues to break to the downside sooner or later the FED will realize okay we've got enough bad data unfortunately that's where the third problem comes in we don't actually have enough bad data yet and this is exemplified via things like the beige book so let's look at the beige book today so here's the beige book see it's beige okay congratulations you saw the beige book now let me read you some boring stuff now I'm actually just going to bottom line to you okay so listen to this five districts reported slight or modest increases in Activity six noted no changes or a slight decrease one cited a significant decline this is kind of like I want you to think for a moment go back to that ship so imagine at the front of the ship you got five people go hey they still ate that bad over here yeah cause you're at the bow okay you're not at the low part of the ship jerk just for analogy sake okay six are like yeah it's starting to get a little wet over here and one's like damn it right that's not enough pain yet drums allow you know Jerome's up there and his Crow's Nest I need everyone bitching sure you've got other parts of the ship starting to smell you know the potty is looking pretty bad and right now the potties the housing market and it's getting worse uh you've got though in the labor market only one District reported a slight decline in employment need more pain look at the economic data that came out this morning jobless claims it's not it's not screaming massive pain to you yet jobless claims were expected to come in at 214 000 they came in at 190.
that's good news for employment but that's bad news for the FED being you know wanting the U-turn uh it came in well higher than expectations and continuing claims fell rather than a rose some people say it's because of you know obviously we know this unemployment substantially lags recession of course everybody knows that uh actually some people don't but unemployment substantially lags so this is a huge lagging indicator we're looking at but but the point is go to the beige book and again hey great manufacturers in many districts reported continued easing and freight costs and prices for Commodities including steel and lumber though some remained elevated so it's like it's not all bad yet retailers noted increased difficulty in passing through cost increases drums like good put on your raincoat I want you to get a little wet I want you to feel a little pain you little sugar boy uh suggesting greater price sensitivity on the part of consumers right sure but then again retail activity in five districts still improving housing market continued to cool in New York same thing in Boston uh you have wage and price inflation continuing to subside but growing at a modest Pace you've got employment growing modestly but demand saw but but demand softening but still healthy labor shortage is still an issue in St Louis construction real estate sectors continuing to struggle so you have a beige book that's starting to give you red flags it's like hey we're starting to take on water down here and he's like I know we must take more water on that is the psychology the more Jerome Powell sends us the signal that we are not wet enough yet the more inflation expectations actually go down because the more people on the ship actually start realizing this mfer is actually gonna make us keep putting on more bad here and he's actually going to make the water line go slightly above the ship to where this guy is actually that Brazen that we might be steering a ship while taking on water to to prove a point guess exactly he does not want the entire ship to be underwater but he will make it so that the waves are cresting above this Edge and that will force inflation down because the worst thing that could happen is that inflation ends up increasing again because if inflation goes up it's going to be nearly impossible to get those five-year break-even inflation rates to stay down so what we have right now is actually good I know I sound crazy to some degree saying that and some people get pissed off at me because they're like Kevin you said negative retail sales were good news but the stock market went down yesterday and and wait a minute why are you cheering for the demise of the economy like that's what some people say and it's like look we need to give drum Powell what he needs we need to give him enough bad news to where the world realizes ah crap okay yeah maybe we do want to start saving a little bit of money we drive inflation down and we continue on the path of lowering uh expectations for inflation if Jerome Powell gets off the Crow's Nest and goes good job guys mission accomplished PPI down we all win every like the ship's just gonna blow over because there'll be so much inflation that'll instantly hop up uh pop up this is why you've got people like uh Michael burry saying we're going to have a second wave of inflation because everybody knows when the Federal Reserve u-turns everything's going back to the Moon we're going on the rocket back to the Moon so we have to be at a place where basically inflation gets so stably low that we're fighting deflation to where we can basically give the fed the license to back down now what are the odds of us actually going to deflation well I actually think quite High I think when you look at uh housing inflation and what we've seen with housing inflation you are on a clear path to massive anchors of owner's equivalent rents and over 32 percent of CPI in over 25 percent of pce it's the fed's preferred inflation gauge will be plummeting with a massive negative anchor come around June July and as long as that also drives down and keeps down other services which we've already started to see decline in the PPI and retail sales numbers I mean when do restaurants go negative negative point nine percent month over month that's over negative 10 retail sales declines for restaurants it's starting like all of the deflationary numbers are coming now we just have to get there and once we get there maybe maybe as long as the as long as those inflation expectations break down we're actually facing deflation that's when you start getting this the pause the slow down the pause and then you start slowly getting cuts the only way the FED goes minus two percent is if something breaks they don't want that to happen they don't want anything to break I think it's raise another 25 maybe 225 BP Cycles pause because the data keeps coming in slow slowly start coming off okay minus 25 minus 25 because they don't want inflation to pop up again right so they'll really slowly taper down it's coming we are probably in two or three years going to look back at this and go oh my gosh we're back at zero I know that sounds really insane to think about as a possibility but I believe based on the research that we are conducting with companies the disinflationary trends we are seeing the amount of excess capacity that manufacturers have that servicers have all this extra hiring companies have done is extra service capacity and then when service when when all of a sudden demand goes down we have more service capacity what are we going to have massive deflation and service in the service sector we're already seeing it in the good sector there's a reason you okay look yesterday we talked about asml in the course member live stream we did a deep dive on asml and one of the the big red flags has a little spoiler here we do this in the course member live we try really hard to do a lot of fundamental analysis also just you know ta news everything but one of the things that we talked about was a risk factor for a company like asml who supplies chip manufacturing equipment is a lot of the manufacturers bought a lot of extra equipment and they have excess equipment that they are actually not bringing online yet because they don't want to over Supply the chip Market but when demand starts Rising they could go like this and and turn on these new machines and so the amount of rubber band excess capacity that companies have to fulfill demand when it comes back is huge and in my opinion it is going to keep inflation down and as long as the FED is is moderated in their declines you don't end up getting the Michael burry second wave of inflation and you end up getting a stock market that just like goes up like this and I'm making a face on purpose though because like it's like okay guys guys be quiet be quiet like things are slowly going up nobody cheer nobody get too excited don't wake that guy up okay and you get you get what becomes a Nike Swoosh recovery of a three or four year slow stock market recovery there'll be some bounces out of you turn hey come say hi I'm in a video you want to say hi yeah this is Jack where do I look uh you look right there in that box right there what do you want to tell the world um um I like a game in Roblox that's called base battles base battles okay is it better than Minecraft yeah uh what about is it better than rust no that's awesome dude Max you want to come say hi you generally don't want to be on camera huh Can you like just scream hi no just he's just shaking his head no I like your shirt though you got Toad and Mario on there that's very nice all right well there you have it my thesis I think it is great Jack why don't you go ahead and press that red button press this button right there in one sec and we'll end the video for that expiring coupon code and take it away Jack
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