저자: InstitutionalStockAnalysis진행자 · 한국인
요약 보기
SOX 3배 레버리지(SOXL) 및 TQQQ 투자 전략 설명. 표준편차 기반 분할매수와 평균단가 낮추기를 강조하고, 변동성 위험(3배 레버리지의 하락 시 손실 확대)을 경고. 과거 백테스트에서 수익률 약 79%(SOX)·130%(TQQQ) 제시. 하락 13% 시 매수 신호 활용, 20회 분할매수 목표 수익 2~3배 제시. 최근 TQQQ 고점 우려와 엔비디아 기대감 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Institutional Stock Analysis. Now, following up on the SOX investment from last time, a rough guide for the TQQQ section has been released, so I would like to share it with you. This is a major project I am preparing. It is called an "Investment Tree," which covers various products simultaneously so that you can choose the products that suit your preferences.
Since existing members might feel some resistance to me suddenly investing in so many stocks, especially regarding leveraged funds like Source or TQQQ, I will ensure a proper balance and combination. I am preparing coverage for funds like Shud Nye and SOX3, as well as domestic stocks, so please keep this in mind and wait just a little longer; I will provide a thorough review.
Now, let's review the US triple-leveraged SOX one more time. I have emphasized several times that it is fundamentally a very risky product, and the primary objective is to strictly adhere to the standard deviation principle. The goal is to generate large profits all at once. Therefore, you must absolutely never go all-in.
Fundamentally, you must strictly maintain the weighting within your portfolio, and when investing, especially when making purchases... You absolutely must not buy and sell as you would with domestic stocks. That is why I emphasize that you must strictly adhere to the rule of entering only when I specifically want you to.
Also, you can consider that virtually 100% of the portfolio is invested in semiconductor stocks such as DIBA, Broadcom, AMD, and Qualcomm. The conclusion is that this is money you should not withdraw immediately; especially if you approach this with a real estate investment mindset, our simulation results suggest that there will likely be a few opportunities to see a decisive outcome within the next two years at most.
Now, if you look at the fluctuations in returns over 1 month, 6 months, and 135 years, 1 month is plus 3%, 6 months is minus, but 1 year is 80%, 3 years is 15%, and 5 years is 170%. So, I will correct the target return figures later and explain to you what kind of goals I am aiming for. When investing in Source, you do n't really need to understand a lot of details, but you do need to be aware of how severe the volatility is.
Source is an ETF that tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Therefore, this Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is approximately It consists of about 45 semiconductor stocks. Basically, regarding the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and SOX, if the index rises by 1, the beta increases by about 1.27.
So, for example, if this index rises by 100 won, you can consider it to rise by about 127 levels. So, in reality, they move quite similarly. However, when the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises by 1, our SOX estimates a threefold increase. It is 6.41; you can see that it moves about six times more drastically.
In other words, if you intend to invest without thinking, it would be better for you to just follow the source with one or two shares. Even if you invest just one or two shares, this source can record surprisingly high returns. However, it carries that much risk, so thorough basic education is required.
At its core is the effect of volatility tolerance. For example, you really shouldn't just think, "It should drop roughly this much," or "This will roughly be a support level," whenever it drops. There are comments asking, "Can't I just buy every time it drops?" You really shouldn't do that. If you do that, you wo n't hit the jackpot.
Absolutely not. You might get lucky and triple your money once or twice. For instance, if the Nasdaq rises 3% and you follow suit, you might make a profit of 15% or 20%. Those times do exist, but that is the scariest part, everyone. Once you make a profit like that, you often end up selling off your entire portfolio that you've been managing well all at once to jump in.
Then, incredibly, that might be the peak; if it drops just three times from that point on, your investment gets cut in half. To thoroughly prevent such situations, one of the things I teach you is the danger of leverage. Let's say a standard 10 and a leverage 10 go up 10%. If the standard goes up 10% and then drops 10%, that's 9.9 trillion.
Even if it drops another 10%, it's still 8.9 trillion. It recovers after one or two rises. However, if leverage starts at 10 and goes up 30%... It is 13. Now, the story changes from the moment it drops 30%. It goes straight down to 6. So, regarding these parts, it is three times the daily volatility.
In other words, it means that the volatility is extremely severe depending on whether it moves well one day or drops the next. However, the semiconductor industry is an industry that absolutely never goes bankrupt. So, even if we are really unlucky—if it does n't go down to $2 or $1, but even if it does—it is still an industry that won't fail.
Of course, I haven't seen it go that far myself, but looking at it that way, it does seem a bit scary. But, the ETF won't disappear because the NAV (Net Asset Value) is basically reflected in the underlying assets, so I believe there is virtually no chance of it going bankrupt. For now, I do n't think we need to think that far ahead.
Since these problems are discovered during the repeated cycle of rises and falls, it can be even more terrifying directly during a bear market. So, why shouldn't you buy at the peak? Just look at it. When it drops consecutively, it is truly terrifying. It started at 100 on the downside and drops 30%, then drops another 30%.
Dropping three times... Only 34% remains. Now, let's try to start the upside here. Even if it rises 30% from 3 to 4, it's still 4 to 4, 5 to 7, or 7 to 4. That is the problem. Therefore, simply holding mindlessly for the long term is something you absolutely must avoid. So, how should you do it? As you all know by now, you must consistently buy outside the standard deviation range and absolutely perform an average cost calculation.
The key to average cost calculation is to lower the average price at all costs. You buy low to lower your average price. You do n't really need to do things like buying haphazardly and seeing a slight rise. Buying low, low, low, and taking a big profit when it goes up is the very foundation of this "quick" investment strategy.
You absolutely must not go all-in on anything, regardless of whether it is in the institutional market. There are several events that are increasing market volatility. Amazon, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, and BDI are scheduled to announce their earnings this month. Of course, BDI has the FMC in November, and the next FMC is on December 17th— two events remaining.
The US presidential election is in November. With the 5th just two weeks away, I think you need to view the world in a beneficial way during this period of volatility. You might ask, "Why do we need to work on the average purchase price? Look at me, if it drops like this, won't it be unable to come back up?" Well, that is precisely why I have prepared the average purchase price work.
Now, let's assume we are in the absolute worst-case scenario. If we start buying here, it’s really dizzying, isn't it? If we just hold on, as you saw earlier, if it drops three times, it is practically the bottom. But look, you absolutely must not go all-in at once. Once you start holding, there is a long bearish candle here, so you have to buy again.
There is another long bearish candle here, so you have to buy again. Then, the average purchase price has dropped to around 53, moving from 61 to 53. Then it drops two more times. If you buy two more times here, it stands at 3630. There is volatility there as well. At 3630, look, the average purchase price has already dropped.
Right, right? Theoretically, you absolutely cannot lose money no matter what. And what if the ETF disappears? There are certainly some of you who are concerned. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index invests by selecting about 34 out of 45 representative semiconductor stocks. And while you could be unlucky and fail, you must hold onto the basic premise that even if five of those 32 or 34 stocks fail, it is very unlikely for the ETF itself to disappear.
So, do you understand why you absolutely must lower your average purchase price? You hold out well like this, and when another semiconductor opportunity comes later—if it rises by just $ 50—what percentage do you think? 40%. Yes, it's interesting, right? That is how you invest. The most recent signal was on October 15th, when we started and the price had dropped 15%; I entered the market once, and my purchase price is $36.11.
I am continuously monitoring it, but it does n't happen often. To explain standard deviation to you one more time: the standard deviation 1 sigma is 6.41. This standard deviation sigma is 13%. What does that mean? It means there is a 64% probability of the price falling within this range. The probability here is 65%, but now it's 95%.
What I mean is that the probability of a 6% drop falls within the 64% range, so even though it falls outside that range, there is a high 95% probability that it will all stay within this range. No matter how much it drops or rises, it will all be within this range. So, the index is currently at the 13.05 level.
It is moving slightly right now, but since it reflects the daily closing price, we can enter the market whenever it drops by 13 seconds. When simulating the worst-case scenario—calculating backward from when interest rate cuts, or rather interest rate hikes, began—we assumed a total purchase amount of about $50,000.
I assumed $100 per share ( 100 shares), so the total valuation becomes $88,000. This results in a profit of $40,000, yielding a return of about 79%. I must reiterate that this is based on the worst-case scenario. The buy signal that dropped by 13% appeared a total of 23 times. It is a market that moves by appropriately mixing buy signals, bullish candles, and bearish candles.
In the meantime, I end up buying whenever it drops by 13%. Since the standard deviation keeps fluctuating, I am essentially telling you through the YouTube community notifications that I will let you know when I buy. After buying about three or four times, you will get a rough sense of it. From then on, you will be given various roles, such as deciding whether to buy the next day or on the same day.
You can view it that way. So, it is good to keep it organized in Excel like this. 36.11 50 trillion was invested; the exchange rate was 1,360 won, and next 2 about 2.5 million won was invested. This is what I have set up to input. So, based on the price per square meter— although the closing price keeps fluctuating—this is how you should look at it.
Now, let's take a look at TQQQ. There are some differences with TQQQ. If you look, there is Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla. Apple, then Microsoft, Broadcom, then Meta, and Amazon. There is Tesla, and there is Costco. There is also Google. What I mean is, although they are IT companies, first It means that it is n't just a pure semiconductor sector, but that actual companies are included.
That is why it is popular; people talk about QQ sign-ups, Triple, QQQQ, SNP 500, and Nasdaq. If you look at it now, TQQQ shows such severe volatility. However, in Korea, among the top 50 stocks that we like, there are always leveraged products. That is because we are a nation of leverage. And honestly, if you don't invest like this, it isn't easy to change your life significantly.
With the social ladder broken, it is hard to hit the jackpot in real estate either. So, the point is that if you invest smartly in this direction, you can actually generate meaningful profits without spending a huge amount of money. Now, I mentioned TQQQ's beta earlier. Naturally, the key point is that since QQQ estimates itself, the beta is 1.
You understand what I mean, right? QQQ estimating Nasdaq is 1. Then, in the case of TQQQ, there is the Ultra Pro QQQ right here, and this one is 3.73. Earlier, the whisper was six times. The point is that this one has slightly less volatility. So, while it is up to your own judgment what you should do, one of the reasons I spoke somewhat negatively is that there are areas where volatility increases.
Naturally, you all expect that the index will have a lower standard deviation. This is because the Nasdaq is a diversified portfolio of 100 stocks, whereas the Sox is diversified across about 30 or 35 stocks. Therefore, it is true that the Nasdaq, being more diversified, is safer. Rather than saying it is safe, it is true that it has less volatility.
However, that does not mean that buy signals increase in frequency. What I mean is, look at 1 sigma and 2 sigma; you understand now, right? Then, this one drops by about 4% with a probability of about 65%, and over the same period of nearly two years, it dropped by 8.61%. So, at most, a drop of about 10% is considered a significant decline.
Now, you can have a reasonable doubt. Just because the standard deviation is low, does that mean the trading volume is more frequent? That’s not it. This one has a total of 17 trades. Actually, you all know about QQQ and NASDAQ, so you can trade NASDAQ or SOX, but Mass trading also has times when it drops by 11% or 13% like this.
You can consider that as the time to enter. Of course, practically speaking, I used the 99% payout as a signal. So, it is 17 trades, and the total valuation return is 130%. You might say, "Oh, the source from earlier was 70%." Okay, let me show you the chart. I know this TQQQ actually has merit, but the reason I chose this source is...
look here. The peak was... well, the peak was from April 2022... so it was practically the peak area. But the peak is right here. Do you see it now? It has actually gone up even more. So, I’m going to go aggressive while estimating the same 3x leverage. In the case of TQQQ, look. Recently, the semiconductor industry has been using ASML, a semiconductor lithography equipment.
It is the AS that creates the semiconductor at the very end and then draws a pattern on top to ensure the semiconductor performs its role optimally. The company [name] recently had poor earnings, and Intel fell along with it. Since the SOX chart has a large weighting of pure semiconductor stocks, this stock dropped significantly, so the SOX chart looks like this.
But look at the NASDAQ. Apple has the number one market cap in the US. It is currently included, and recently, Apple is recording a new all-time high. So, in fact, because the QQQ has a high weighting of Apple, the stock price is actually higher. Now, it might be good for those trading QQQ, but for those of us entering TQQQ for the first time, I think there is no need to buy at such a high point.
To be honest, the buy signal isn't bad, because frankly, it's not easy to enter when it has dropped 15%. But since you enter when it drops about 99%, it is fine for me to just stir up controversy for my broadcast. However, rationally speaking, as a fellow investor, entering with triple leverage at such a high point...
well, lately, I find it a bit burdensome. The judgment is up to you. I will give you signals for both. However, please keep in mind that there is a bit of a risk of high peaks, so it might be difficult to allocate a large portion to TQQ. So, our source was released in 2001, and this one is TQQQ from 1999.
You can consider them almost like siblings. If you look at the one-year return, we compare it to the S&P 500. The price of TQQQ is a price based on folklore; you can view it this way. When comparing the year, there is merit. There is a speed merit. Similarly, compared to the S&P, there is a NASDAQ merit.
So, in fact, I think we simply cannot overlook these stocks. Therefore, I believe we should aim for a target return of at least three times the annual return this source generates. So, about three times. I think I am looking at more than double. Let's make a total of 20 purchases. Usually, the speed is the same.
Of course, it might not be exactly 20 times. And if we assume you make 20 purchases using TQQQ, roughly speaking, if you invest 1 million won each time... If you do that, it becomes 20 million won, so you can aim for around 40 million won. And if you invest 2 million won, I'm roughly aiming for between 80 million and 100 million won.
You should do the same, depending on your level or situation. As I mentioned earlier, if you absolutely do not have the capacity to buy more, simply holding it long-term is really dangerous. However, when it falls, you should move in step with it. You must remember that as the average price decreases, it becomes advantageous for you.
It might look better than expected, but if you go all-in and turn around abruptly, I really cannot take responsibility then. I cannot bear any moral responsibility at that point. Let me summarize. It applies to Q and Soji; no matter which one you choose, there is actually no right answer. Honestly, I tried S-type a long time ago, and I remember making about 40 million won back then.
But I was a bit lucky back then. Now, since the semiconductor market has passed its peak and is in a mature phase—having gone through corrections—it might not be as easy as expected to expect the high levels of support seen in the past, but still, semiconductors won't collapse. I have the mindset that I won't do it.
That is why, especially if your seed money is small, you need to invest aggressively. You need to achieve meaningful results at least once. When you make a lot of money, the difference is truly like night and day. The biggest loss I've ever made in stocks was 179 million won. If you earn that much— actually, remember about three years ago when I used leverage and went all out with Daeju Electronics Materials—when I took profits later, it was 179 million won.
If you do that, you will likely feel something. That is the goal. However, don't get too greedy. Whether your seed money is small or large, I hope you remember that you are investing intentionally. Also, you need to fully understand the nature of losses, which can triple. You saw earlier, right? Dropping from 100 to 30 is nothing unusual.
However, if you are in a situation where you can match your average purchase price, it is not something to be afraid of. You need to understand that there are these kinds of internal characteristics. Regarding Q, although I wrote it like this, I found that it is a similar situation based on my own experience.
This one, too, cannot avoid regulations, and subsidies will be cut. There are various possibilities and situations, but I think it is at the peak. If you look at the opinions of analysts, there are sell, buy, and hold recommendations. It is the same for this stock; there are buy recommendations and strong sell recommendations.
It is currently recording a peak, and since the sale, it has risen from the high point and skyrocketed. So, actually, regarding their opinions, there is a lot of talk about Nvidia. Since the market is currently anticipating the release of Nvidia's Black, whether or not it lives up to those expectations could drastically change the landscape of the market.
It is good if it goes up, and I think there is merit even if it falls. However, since they do not use the same investment method as us, they rely solely on price and estimates, so I think they are expressing these kinds of opinions. Also, whether the discrepancy widens or not, that is actually not important.
You should consider that our goal is to lower the price. Now, regarding these points, even I think that if I listened to my broadcast, I would want to buy. However, if you feel that you cannot act truly cool-headedly... Actually, going with dividend stocks is the right choice. Although there is currently a very confusing situation regarding dividend stocks and leverage, investing smartly like this is one of the representative ways to make investing enjoyable.
It turns you into a machine that can think rationally in the future, and it can also grow. Please keep this in mind and review it positively. Thank you.
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