원문 보기
And when the world comes to an end, you're going to be glad you have some silver in the closet. You're glad you have some gold under the bed because throughout history, gold and silver and a couple of other things have maintained their value and helped preserve your wealth. The Trump's tariffs, absurd.
Okay, I have to have five words if you could. Absurd. uh ignorant and disaster. Every other news article is about Trump's tariffs, trade wars, a looming recession, and volatile markets. What's your take on what we're seeing in the markets now? Do you think this is simply a cyclical period of volatility?
Well, if you have been around a long time like I have or get that if you have read a lot of history, you know that trade wars and tariffs usually do not work. uh they help a few people sometimes for a few days or a few weeks but they've never been successful in changing trade patterns or anything else.
They have never led to great riches. Maybe some pirates have had great riches but tariffs and tariffs have not ever done rarely if ever done much to change the world unless they lead to war. Considering how Trump imposed tariffs and then announced delays after countries reached out to engage into negotiations, do you see tariffs being used more as a bargaining tool in trade talks and a way to address US trade deficits?
Well, that's what politicians often say. They say that this is for negotiation or for trading, but no, they usually think that they're doing a good thing. They usually have some friends or constituents that they think they can help with tariffs or trade wars. But I repeat, very very few trade wars, tariffs and trade wars have been successful in history.
Mhm. If you want to have a war, they are very good at starting a war, but that's about all. What's your perspective on how the tariffs are reshaping global trade? Well, I'm not sure that they will. Mr. Trump thinks they're going to reshape global trade so that America has a big surplus. Um, but in my view that's not going to happen.
The US and China are going back and forth uh with their tariff hikes. Do you think the US China trade tensions we're seeing now in 2025 are more severe than the trade war back in 2018? All trade wars are serious, especially if you're on the other side. Uh, I suspect this is more serious because Mr. Trump has in his head that he needs to do something dramatic and he thinks the trade wars will be dramatic and the tariffs will be dramatic.
So I Well, the answer to your question is this is probably more serious than the last time because Mr. Trump has in his head he has to do something dramatic. What do you make of the bond market sell off in the last couple of days and could it be the start of a sell America phase? I I doubt if if it's a sell sell America phase yet that that will come because America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and unfortunately there's going to come a time when people will sell America.
You know 100 years ago Britain was the richest most powerful country in the world. They went bankrupt 50 years later and there came a time when everybody sold Britain even though it had been the number one country in the world. But everybody knew they had to get out of Britain and they did. We have not faced those days yet for America.
But unfortunately I know they're coming because the debt goes higher and higher and higher in the US. When I look at the numbers, I'm just I'm I'm shocked because I I think the people in Washington must know the numbers. Maybe they don't. That would be worse. Maybe they don't know the numbers, but the numbers are incomprehensible.
It's unbelievable how deep the American debt is and how high it continues to go. Now, let's talk more about changing investment strategies and trading opportunities. My first question is for an investment standpoint, which sectors or asset classes will be in focus with Trump in power? Well, I sold all of my nearly all of my investments uh my stock market investments two or three months ago.
I still have a little in China, a little bit of newspakistan, but I basically sold out of everywhere because I expect a serious problems to come to most investment markets in the world. Uh so I don't ask me where to put your money. Well, I will say I put my money in US dollars. So, I own a lot of US dollars and I'm sitting here watching now less pained about US dollars.
So, I guess that means I am most optimistic about US dollars. Yes, US dollars. Well, I have some gold and silver. I keep it in my pocket. Gold and silver I own. I I have bought more silver recently. Uh I plan I hope that my children own my gold and silver someday. Uh because in my view, everybody should have some gold and silver as protection, as insurance, if nothing else.
Uh and when the world comes to an end, you're going to be glad you have some silver in the closet. You're glad you have some gold under the bed because throughout history, gold and silver, and a couple of other things have maintained their value and help preserve your wealth. They've always been, you remember Jesus Christ?
Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver because in those days silver was the main store of value. Uh the United States was actually founded on a silver standard changed to gold 100 years later but we were a silver country for many years. So gold and silver have had value for centuries and in my view they will continue to have value.
Maybe because people don't know anything else, but I own gold and silver and hope that I'm smart enough to buy more. And I hope that my children have my gold and silver someday. And I will repeat that gold and silver have always maintained their value. Whether they should or not is another discussion, but they always have for hundreds of years.
So I own some gold and silver. Are there specific asset classes that traders will find greater opportunities in? How can investors adjust their strategies? Well, I mean, if I were an op a trader, and I'm not. I'm more an investor than a trader. I would look for things to sell short because I expect the markets to be bad for a while.
I suspect we're going to have very bad stock markets for a long time. So, if I were a trader, I would learn to sell short and start selling short. And the stocks I would probably sell short of the stocks you know those stocks that were very hot in the last day few days of the bull market the technology stocks that's usually usually when the markets markets are going down the best thing to do is to short the hot stocks in the last bull market and these days there are many ways to short the market there are ETFs exchange traded funds you can short the ETFs for industries often for companies there are many ways to short the market.
Now, I would say learn about ETFs and find the ones that you know are going to have problems and short those ETFs. You can short baskets of stocks for the market. You can short in the US market. You can buy you can short baskets of stocks the S&P 500 for instance. You can short a basket of the S&P 500.
You can short a basket of automobiles. you can short a basket of nearly everything. So, short those baskets if you don't know specific companies, but if you don't know specific companies, you probably shouldn't be shorting. Um, I mean, investing is is not an easy game. It looks easy. Everybody says how easy it is.
Everybody says, "I could have bought Apple." No, they couldn't or they would have if they could have bought Apple long ago. Most people just do not know enough. But if you do know enough about some industries or some companies that you know are going to have problems, sell them short. You can make a lot of money and protect yourself if you know how to sell short.
And everybody who invests should learn to sell short because it's an important part of investing business. Well, all investors if they want to be successful, they should not listen to other people, including me. They should invest only in what they themselves know a lot about. Everybody watching this knows a lot about something.
I don't know what it is, but they know something. And that's where they should start. They should start looking at the areas where they know a lot. Figure out what's good in that area. And that's where they should invest. They should not listen to hot tips. They should not listen to hot tips from anybody because hot tips will ruin them.
They should just stay with what they know. Now sometimes when I tell people that they say, "Oh, that's boring." If you want to be successful, be boring. Be a boring investor and you will be very successful. Oh my. And everybody will love you. Everybody will love you. Through your career, you've had a reputation for taking long-term views on investments.
Uh, how do you see this volatility caused by Trump affecting your long-term investment philosophy? Well, I usually would not change my investment outlook because of a person. Now, if the person is extremely powerful and makes big changes, of course, I would have to. But no, I don't. Mr. Trump doesn't really know what he wants to do.
He knows he wants to do many things. He wants to do many changes, but I don't think Mr. Trump really has an over. Do you remember Margaret Thatcher? Yeah. Margaret Thatcher was somebody that if something happened, we would more or less know what she would do because we know how she thought. I don't I don't
Comments 0