저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
9월 PPI·CPI·수입/수출물가가 예상보다 크게 높아 인플레이션이 연준을 압도하고 있다고 주장. 워시 연준의장은 금리인상 의지가 약한 비둘기이며, 트럼프 정부 하에서 인플레가 악화될 것이라 봄. 금·은 하락을 매수 기회로 보고 귀금속 매수를 권유.
다듬은 글
They expected producer prices to increase by 5.6% annually. Instead, they grew by 6.3%. The core indicator was expected to increase by 0.3%, but it increased by 0.7% over the month. If we convert this to an annual rate, we get 9%. 9% core inflation? Inflation is passing. And the Fed is simply sleeping on the mark.
In fact, it seems that Waller gave a speech last night or early this morning that got everyone excited, because even though he already had all these bad inflation numbers, during his speech he didn't express any concern about those numbers or that it meant the Fed had to be more aggressive than it already was.
And that led to expectations for a rate hike in October, before the election, falling from about 40%, 45% to about 15%. Um, because apparently it does n't even matter. The week ended with a string of bad news regarding inflation: on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. All the news was hotter than expected, which means inflation was higher than expected.
Ironically, as it had been for months and months and months, all this bad news about inflation was actually bad news for gold and silver, according to traders, because they were selling gold and silver. And again, the reason they do this is because they interpret worse-than- expected inflation news as a sign that the Fed will have to become more aggressive.
It will have to become medieval in its fight against inflation. It will really raise rates and possibly reduce the balance. And it is this fight against inflation that worries traders, and that is why they sell gold. But if they actually understand that higher-than- expected inflation figures don't mean the Fed will fight harder to beat inflation.
This means that the Fed has already lost. Inflation won. Here's what the numbers show. The market still doesn't understand that even if the Fed raises rates two or three more times, it doesn't mean anything. Inflation is accelerating much faster than the Fed is raising rates. Meanwhile, the Fed, especially Kevin Warsh, all he does is talk .
Everyone thinks he is a fierce fighter against inflation. He is the reincarnation of Paul Walker. This is all nonsense. He has been the chairman of the Fed for 5 months. And what did he do in those 5 months? Raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Big deal. This is ridiculous. And he probably isn't even going to raise them another 25 basis points before December.
So what? And look at the balance. The Fed's balance sheet is larger today than it was 5 months ago when he became Fed Chairman. And the M2 money supply has grown by almost 6% year-on-year over the past 5 months. These are not the actions of an inflation fighter, a hawk. These are the actions of a pigeon.
So, Warsh is a dove in a hawk's skin . Forget what he says. Look what he's doing. And very soon the markets will realize that he is barking and not biting when it comes to fighting inflation. But let's look at the terrible numbers we got, which should have sent the price of gold soaring by hundreds of dollars an ounce this week.
If only traders really understood inflation, interest rates, bond yields , the Fed, but fortunately for us, they don't . They don't understand anything, which means Schiff Gold customers have another opportunity to buy more gold and silver. Gold fell by half a percent in a week. Uh, it closed at around 4145.
Although it should have gone up, that's good news. You can buy more gold at a lower price because traders don't understand what's going to happen. Silver fell even more, so you got an even bigger gift. Silver ended the week down about 3%, closing around $56.85. In fact, it dropped to 55 and fluctuated throughout the week.
This is a great buy. The return of the silver price below $60, especially given all the bullish news that has come out this week, suggests that traders don't understand how bullish it is. I'll start with the most unpleasant of the bad reports that came out on Wednesday, and I've already discussed it on my main podcast, but I'll mention it again.
And this is the CPI. These are all September numbers. So, the CPI for September increased by 0.6%. This is a big move in 1 month. But you know, what's even more important is that this is an annual figure. When you multiply it by 12, that's an annual rate of 7.4. This is major inflation. They never talk about monthly figures in annual terms like they do with GDP.
When they report GDP, they always list it on an annualized basis. So, if the growth for the quarter was half a percent, they report GDP growth of 2%. They multiply by four. Why don't they multiply the monthly inflation rates by 12? Because they want the number to look as small as possible. So you don't think, "Oh, that's 6/10 of 1%.
"It's not that bad." Yes, but that's in a month. If this happens every month for a year, that's 7.4. Well, the annual core rate was 3.7% excluding food and energy, so this is where the figure turned out to be hotter than expected, because other bad news was expected. Er, the core figure rose 0.3%, which is 50% more than expected, and the annual core figure rose 2.6.
And it was hotter than 2.5. Both gold and silver rose sharply on this news. Er, like the bond market. Although the bond market has since recovered, yields, I think, have hit new highs as a result of this bad inflation news. But, you know, when you hear Republicans talking about inflation now, they try to talk about how Trump, you know, brought the inflation rate down so much .
They point out: “Oh, under Biden it was 9.1%, and now under Trump it’s only 3 %. So, Trump reduced inflation, and the problem was completely left to Biden. "So we're doing great." This is all nonsense. Inflation is getting worse, not better, under Trump. So far, in the first 9 months of 2026, the CPI has increased by 4%.
We still have three months left in the year. I bet the whole year will be with 5% inflation. But even if we take the 4% we have now, for the entire year of 2024, Biden's last year in office, all 12 months, inflation has increased by 2.9%. It's already 4%, and we have 3 months left. A year earlier, in 2023, inflation for the whole year was 3.4.
We are taller now. So, inflation in the first 9 months of this year is worse than it was in the entire fourth year of Biden's rule and the entire third year of his presidency. So how can you consider this to be considered a reduction in inflation if inflation is higher now than it was in 2024 or 2023?
It is still not higher than it was in 2022, when it was 6.5%, or in 2021, when it was 7%, but it will be. I believe that next year, 2027, the CPI could grow by more than 7%, and it could grow by another 7% in 2028 . When Biden was president, the CPI peaked in his first year. Every year he was president, the CPI was lower.
For Trump, it will be the opposite. The CPI will worsen with each year of Trump's presidency. I'm not saying Biden was a great president. No, he wasn't. He was a terrible president and his policies were inflationary, but so are Trump's policies. But if you just look at the numbers under Biden, we had 4 years of declining inflation.
Under Trump, we will have 4 years of rising inflation, and I am confident that on average over Trump's 4 years, the CPI will rise more under Trump than under Biden. And, oddly enough , the reason Biden's first year was his worst year, 7%, is because of the monetary and fiscal policies that took place under Trump in 2020.
Trump sowed the seeds for this surge in consumer prices with his fiscal policy , the monetary policy pursued by the Fed while Trump was in power. So, Biden inherited this serious problem from Trump. Trump keeps talking about the inflation he inherited from Biden, well, Biden inherited it from him. I'm not saying that Biden, you know, didn't add to the problems that will manifest themselves under Trump.
Much of the inflation we will experience over the next few years can be attributed to Biden-era policies, but Trump made it worse with his big, beautiful bill. And in fact, after the midterm elections, when Republicans are likely to lose the House and Senate, the budget deficit will be even larger. The reckless bills passed by the Democratic Congress will be even more inflationary than those passed by the Republicans, and Trump will sign them anyway .
This will not be a dead end. Trump will sign these laws, and in fact the 2024 election was entirely about inflation, the cost of living, and the affordability crisis. Well, the 2028 election will be about the same , only worse. Inflation will be a much bigger problem in 2028 than in 2024. In 2028, we will have a much bigger affordability crisis than in 2024.
All elections will focus on who is to blame, who will be to blame. Of course, Republicans. Well, they'll probably blame Biden anyway, right? You blame Biden for everything. But they will also blame the Democratic Congress. And, um, Republicans will say, “Look, the Democrats got elected, and look what happened to inflation.
She flew to heaven . "I told you so." Trump said, “I warned you not to vote for Democrats. "It's all their fault." Right ? So Republicans will try to shift the blame onto the Democratic Congress. Um, but the Democrats, of course, will blame everything on Trump. And it will just be a blame game. Everyone will point the finger at the other guy and the other party .
And the public must decide. But, based on past experience , they usually blame the party that has the White House. And so the Republicans will have to blame, so I think in 2028 the Democrats will win , uh, with the radical left, uh, democratic socialists and a democratic Congress. And you better buy up all your gold and silver now, before investors realize what this means.
Now, after we got the CPI, the next day, and I didn't talk about it earlier , because my other podcast was done on Wednesday. This one came out on Thursday. We got the CPI. And if people thought the CPI was bad, the CPI was much worse. And what's even worse about the CPI being so bad is that it is a leading indicator of the CPI.
Because before consumer prices rise, producer prices rise. This is a chain. Businesses, their costs go up, their prices go up, and then they pass that on to the consumer. So if you want to know what will happen to consumer prices in the future, you look at producer prices today. And when you look at manufacturers' prices, the picture looks ugly.
So, the consensus forecast was that producer prices would increase by 0.5%. This would be slightly more than the 0.4% in the previous month. Instead, they grew by 1.3% per month. This is almost three times more than analysts expected. And again, if you convert this number to an annualized rate, it's 17%.
Producer prices rose with an annual inflation rate of 17% in September. Does this sound like the Fed is winning the battle against inflation? Inflation seems to have crushed the Fed. Year-on-year, they expected producer prices to increase by 5.6%. Instead, they grew by 6.3%. The core index was expected to increase by 0.3%, but rose by 0.7% over the month.
Calculate that per year and you get 9%. 9% core inflation? Inflation is running away. And the Fed is sleeping on the spot. In fact, it seems that last night or early this morning Warsh gave a speech that got everyone excited, because even though he already had all these bad inflation numbers, during his speech he didn't express any concern about those numbers or that it meant the Fed had to be more aggressive than it already was.
And that has caused expectations for a rate hike in October before the election to fall from about 40-45% to about 15%, because apparently it doesn't even matter. And actually, I was watching CNBC when they were covering these bad numbers. They knew the CPI figures. Uh, they knew the PPI figures. And they said that this is problematic for the Fed because it shows that inflation is not falling as quickly as they expected.
What do you mean, not falling as fast as they expected? It doesn't fall at all. Inflation is rising. Inflation is accelerating. I mean, they're embellishing it. They act as if the only problem is that it falls more slowly. It doesn't fall at all. It is growing. This is a bigger problem. The Fed believed that inflation would trend downward.
Instead, it has an increasing trend. And in fact, the worst numbers we got this week were released today. They left on Friday. And these are probably the most reliable of all the numbers. These are import and export prices. And the reason I say they are the most reliable is because they are unadjusted.
There is no substitution. There is no hedonism. These are just actual prices. Therefore, import prices were expected to increase by 0.6%. Instead, they grew by 1.1%. For a month, this amounts to 14% annual inflation. Now, year-on- year, import prices have actually increased by 8.1%. We buy a lot of imports in this country.
Almost everything we buy in terms of products is imported. And 8.1% is not at all like 2%. That's not even close to the overall CPI year-on-year, which I think was 3.7? But look at export prices. Export prices were expected to increase by 0.9%. Instead, they grew by 2.2% in 1 month. This is the inflation target for the whole year for 1 month.
Actually more. The Fed wants inflation to be 2% per year. And in export prices it was 10% higher, 2.2% per month. 1 month. tuned and stay connected.
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