저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주택시장이 2008년급 위기로 번지며 부동산 가격이 크게 하락할 것이라는 전망. 주택 건설·수요 악화: 모기지 금리 7.5%, 건설비 급등(인플레이션·관세·이민 정책), 빌더 신뢰지수 29(2012년 이후 최저), 빌더 43%가 가격 인하 중, 신축주택이 기존주택보다 싸게 팔리는 역전 현상 발생. 가격 하락 전망: 신축 가격이 먼저 꺾이면 기존 주택도 따라 하락할 것이며, 2008년 수준(약 30%) 이상 하락 가능성 언급. 금리가 8.5~9%까지 오르면 집값이 절반으로 내려가야 기존 월 상환액을 유지할 수 있다는 계산 제시. 은행 손실 문제: 25년 잔존 고정금리 모기지 약 8.5조 달러(평균 쿠폰 4.6%)의 미실현 손실이 약 2조 달러, 금리 8.5%에서는 약 3조 달러로 확대된다고 주장. 2008년 실제 부실 손실은 약 4,500억 달러였다고 비교. 리스크·조건: 채무불이행 확산 시 은행 연쇄 부실 가능성, 패니메이·프레디맥 추가 구제금융 필요성 제기, 시그니처·실리콘밸리은행 사례를 예로 듦. 집값 하락 시 자산 가치가 대출보다 낮아져 상환 포기가 늘어날 수 있다고 봄. 출연자 전망: 주택 거래·건설은 역사상 가장 약한 시장이 될 것이며 '완전히 멈출 때까지' 위축될 것으로 예상. 금이나 은 등 자산 관련 언급은 이 영상 자막에서 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Mortgage rates are at 7 and 1/2 percent. Construction costs are skyrocketing. Inflation is increasing the cost of construction. Tariffs are also increasing the cost of construction. Immigration policy, you know, Trump has been successful. Still, the price of the house will have to be halved. So, if you can buy a $500,000 home with a 3% mortgage , the same income will only be able to buy a $250,000 home at a 9% interest rate because interest rates have now increased.
And now the banks are stuck. There are approximately $8.5 trillion in fixed-rate mortgages outstanding with an average term of 25 years remaining. However, the situation will worsen when mortgage rates reach 8.5 percent. This is an unrealized loss of $3 trillion. This is on mortgages that are not deteriorating.
All mortgages. We had the financial crisis in 2008 because there were about $450 billion in real losses on defaulted mortgages. And you have three kids, you know, you have to sell the house. So, in the last 25-26 years, this is the lowest pending home sales index. Of course, it's going to go much lower than that , but it's already the lowest it's been.
But, if it is currently the lowest, it means it is lower than any year since the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, fewer homes are being sold compared to 2007, 2008, 2009, and home builders ' confidence is falling. The September housing market index fell to 29. This is the lowest since 2012. 43 % of builders are reducing their prices.
And in fact , if you look at markets across the country now, new homes are selling at much lower prices than existing homes. Think about it. A brand new house can be purchased for less money than an old house. It should be the opposite. New houses should be more expensive. But they're not there because developers need to get rid of them.
That's why they are lowering their prices. Look, in the current housing market right now, homeowners are not excited yet. They are sitting on a 3-4% mortgage. They are in no hurry to lower their prices. And you know, you only have one house. So you can sit there and pay your mortgage and wait until you get the price you think your house is worth.
But if you're a homebuilder and you have all this stock lying around, you have to take a more realistic view. You know, you need to push the product forward. You need to sell. That's why they are lowering their prices. But builders are also realizing that, you know what? We can't actually sell these houses because no one can afford to buy them.
Mortgage rates are at 7.5%. And construction costs are skyrocketing. Inflation is increasing the cost of construction. Tariffs are driving up the cost of construction. Immigration policy, you know, Trump has been successful. Yes , there are not that many illegal people in our country. Well, a lot of those illegals were building houses.
And if they're not there, now they have to hire people and they ask for a lot more money. And so home builders are in a very difficult position. They can't really build a house that an American can buy. So now they have to get rid of the houses they've already built , but they can't do that unless they lower their prices.
So this will lead to a lot of unemployment in the housing sector. I think this will be the weakest housing market ever in terms of construction and sales until everything falls apart. But you will see that it will come to a complete standstill. Okay? Activity will continue to shrink due to the price-to-capacity ratio.
But the fact that the prices of new homes are being reduced , you know that the prices of existing homes will have to be reduced as well. Because why would anyone buy an old house when I can buy a new one for less? Because the problem with an old house is that there are a lot of problems there. You buy a new house, you get a warranty , you know it's brand new.
But the house is 10 , 15, 20 years old , there can be a lot of problems there. You may have to spend a lot of money on maintenance and repairs. I mean, maybe a lot of equipment will start to break down. Your air conditioner will start to break down. Your roof, if you buy a brand new house, all those things are new.
So, it is clear that new homes are a leading indicator. Real estate prices will fall. But they won't just fall a little because falling a little wo n't help. They will have to fall a lot, at least as much as the 2008 financial crisis , which was a 30% decline. And yet, I think it will be difficult , especially if mortgage rates continue to rise as they are now at 7.5%.
They could easily be at 8.5% at the beginning of next year , and then at 9%. You know, if the mortgage is 9%, the price of the house would have to be halved to keep the payments equal to 3% mortgage rates. So, if you can buy a $500,000 home with a 3% mortgage , the same income at 9% will only bring you a $250,000 home.
Therefore , prices must fall. And again, I think income is already under pressure. Therefore, most people don't have as much money to buy a home as they did when mortgage rates were 3%, because the cost of food, electricity, and housing has become much higher. Therefore, they have too little money left to even qualify for a mortgage.
So, this is going to be a big problem for lenders , but there is another reason why this mortgage crisis could be much worse than 2008. And no one is talking about it , even though I told about it 10 years ago. I knew it would happen when I saw banks selling 30-year mortgages at 3% or 4%. I knew it would ultimately be a burden on the creditors.
No one else cared because all their attention was on how good it was for the borrower that they could keep refinancing their mortgage. Meanwhile, banks that had 8% mortgages were left with 7% , then 6%, and then 5%. People kept refinancing, and every time they did , they went back to a new 30-year mortgage.
They reset the time. So, banks were stuck with new 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with consistently low rates. Now, when the Federal Reserve was at 0% and they were making money , and as mortgage rates were falling, yes, mortgages were increasing in value until they were refinanced , but today, the story is completely different because now interest rates have gone up.
Now, mortgage rates are 7.5% and now the banks are stuck. There are approximately $8.5 trillion in fixed- rate mortgages outstanding with an average term of 25 years remaining. 25 years. And the average coupon, the average rate on that 8.5 trillion is 4.6%. Now, of course, there are some that are very rare.
I mean, I have one too. The rate on the one mortgage I have remaining is 3 and 3/8%. But I've talked to people who are actually below three. This is great for the borrower because you are paying lower interest rates , but it is bad for the lender because you are sitting on a larger liability. Currently, unrealized losses on $8.5 trillion in mortgages are about $2 trillion.
If lenders had to go by market value, if you had to sell your mortgage book today and you had a mortgage with a 4.6% coupon and 25 years remaining, you would suffer a huge loss. Collectively, the damage is about 2 trillion out of 8.5 trillion. Now, lenders will say, "Well, these are not real losses because we just have to hold onto these mortgages for the next 25 years and we're safe." Yes, the problem is that you might not be able to do that.
This is why Signature Valley Bank failed because their customers needed their money. And so they had to sell. They had to bear the losses on their losing portfolios or whatever they had. I mean the entire financial system is bankrupt because it has assets that they can't sell, assets that can't be converted into cash.
If there is a run on the bank , if depositors want their money back, then the lenders, if they own these mortgages, cannot give the depositors back the money because they have lost them. They ca n't say, " We have your money and we can pay you back over the next 25 years as we get the money from the mortgage, but we can't pay you back today because we've taken a loss because the mortgage is worth 80 cents on the dollar.
" But it will get even worse when mortgage rates reach 8.5% , which will be an unrecoverable loss of $3 trillion. This is on mortgages that are not deteriorating. All mortgages. Remember that in 2008 we had the financial crisis because there were about $450 billion in real losses on defaulted mortgages.
We currently have an unrealized loss of $2 trillion. This is four times more than the actual losses incurred during the years of the financial crisis. But another thing that no one talks about is that only 10% of mortgages were bad. So 90% of people paid. And the value of those mortgages increased because the Fed cut interest rates to zero , mortgage rates fell.
So if you had a book of mortgage loans , its value increased. I think the unrealized profits on outstanding mortgages at the beginning were about $1.3 trillion. Therefore, the unrealized profit exceeded the actual loss. So generally the creditors were in good shape. Yes, some of their money sank, but the value of their portfolio had increased far more than their losses.
It's quite the opposite. Banks are losing money on 100% of their mortgages even though none of them are bad. The loss is bad because they were stupid to make these loans. And I was saying at the time how stupid it was to lend anyone money, especially that last round of refinancing during Covid when interest rates were zero and banks were stupid enough to issue new 30-year mortgages with triple figures ?
Did they really think interest rates would stay so low for so long? No, they did n't care. They just wanted to do the refinancing and earn fees. They did n't care. All those mortgages are losing a lot of money. It would have been better for the lenders if they had denied all these loans, but they were foolish to do so.
Yes, it was very good. I said on my podcast, I encouraged all my listeners , go out and borrow for 30 years , get the biggest mortgage you can get and lock in this rate. I said this would be the best thing for you to do. I said you won't make money as a landlord, I said you'll make money as a borrower.
You will make money because you have all this cheap money locked up. Well, the borrower makes money because the lender loses it, right? This is a negative-sum game. Typically, the lender makes money because, you know, he gets interest. But in this case, the lender loses money because he is not getting the required interest.
It's the borrower who has all this cheap money. I mean , you can only take the money you got from your mortgage. If you have a 3% mortgage, you can take the money and deposit it in the bank and get four percent , you know , not in the bank , but in the money market. The banks still don't give anything.
But you can get more than 4% from the money market and just profit from the difference. But what happens when those rates go up to 5%, 6%, 7% ? Banks are in bad shape. You are locked in for the next 25 years. So, the banks have lost all this money before anyone defaults. But once real estate prices fall, defaults will definitely occur.
Even if you have a fixed-rate mortgage, if you are in debt and your equity is negative, you will not have difficulty making payments. Yes, there is a lot of equity in homes these days. Donald Trump talks about this a lot. They say I don't want real estate prices to go down because I don't want all these seniors to lose their equity.
Well, that will continue to happen. And you know, some of these old people have to die. Their children will want to sell the house. They don't need houses or they'll have to distribute them. Suppose you die and you have three children, then you have to sell the house so that each can get their third share.
But, you know , people get divorced, people move from one place to another , people lose their jobs. And you know, let's say you have a house and a mortgage of $400,000 and your house was worth $500,000. Okay, I have a profit of 100 thousand here. Well, let's say the house is now worth 300,000 and you are at a loss of 100,000.
And then suddenly , you have a problem with your roof and it will cost $40,000 to fix. Would you waste $40,000 ? Because you are already at a loss of 100,000. So, that money wo n't go into your pocket. You will only be helping the bank. What will people say, "[ __ ] all this." I'm not fixing the leak.
I'm leaving this problem to the bank. I'm leaving here. And that's what's going to happen. Therefore, people will be unable to repay the loan and you will suffer losses because prices will go down. So, then there will be another mortgage crisis where banks will again lose billions of dollars on defaulted mortgages.
But, instead of a trillion dollars in unreal profits, they will have billions and trillions of unreal losses. And some of these banks may be forced to accept losses that will cause them to fail. And you know, all those big banks that were bailed out in 2008 have now become even bigger. And if they fail now, it will be even worse.
However, a very big problem lies ahead for the entire banking sector. As I've been saying about Fannie and Freddie , they'll need another bailout. The losses are going to be terrible. They insure more than $7 trillion of the $8.5 trillion in mortgages. And those that are about to fail are also those whose debtors are most heavily burdened with debt.
And therefore, it will cause the greatest harm. And remember, not everyone had these 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Some people have a 5-year ARM where they had it fixed for 5 years. Some people actually had a 15-year mortgage that you know might be coming to an end. People took out 15-year mortgages 10, 12 years ago.
They may have to refinance it soon because there is a ticking time bomb in the mortgage market. So you have a 2008-like situation developing in the housing market. Be sure to like, comment, and share. Also, do n't forget to press the bell icon for more updates. Stay connected and stay tuned.
Comments 0