저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
귀금속 특히 백금과 금광주 가치 강조, 유가 상승(호르무즈 리스크) 전망, 비트코인 60k 재하락 가능성 및 민주당 의회 장악 시 규제 리스크 경고, 미국 주택시장과 은행·연기금 부실 및 정부 구제 가능성 경고. 과거 가격 언급과 장기 구조 전망이 혼재.
다듬은 글
I mean, platinum has a lot more industrial components, and historically it's not perceived the same way as gold or silver. And so the typical buyer of gold and silver doesn't necessarily buy platinum. You know, we at Shift Gold sell very little platinum. Most people don't come to Shift Gold because they want to buy platinum.
They want gold. They want silver. But I am optimistic about platinum. I am optimistic about platinum. I think all these goods will increase in price. So I believe that no matter what you have, you will make money. The question is, will platinum rise more than gold? Historically, platinum is quite cheap compared to gold.
So you might get a better return by buying platinum, given the historical connection between the two metals, by buying shares of gold mining companies for decades. So I think they are very cheap. Especially considering that they are making money now at a gold price of $4,000, but you have the potential for much greater profits when the gold price rises even higher.
So I think there is a lot of value in this sector , and I continue to advise investors who don't have access to it to get involved. I myself already have significant investments, so I have n't increased them recently. But if you have some investments but not enough, I would take advantage of the current price pullback to increase your stake.
Most investors do not invest in precious metals mining at all . I consider this a huge mistake. We at Euro Pacific Asset Management have separate accounts focused solely on the mining sector, among other broader strategies that focus on dividend income or growth. But we have strategies focused on extraction.
In fact, I have a mutual fund that people can buy—the Euro Pacific Gold Fund, which again is made up entirely of gold and silver mining companies. So you can buy my fund. It is available under the ticker symbol EPGIX. This is the ticker for a gold fund. You can buy it from any discount broker for access or contact Euro Pacific Asset Management.
You can buy funds from us or have a separate account where you have your own account and we select and manage stocks for you . I believe juniors have the best value. I mean, our strategy in the fund is to give more weight to royalty companies and juniors. Uh, and we try to offset the risk of juniors uh with royalty companies.
And in the middle we have, you know, all the big manufacturers and mid- tier companies. Um, and it was these companies that performed the best in this final stage of the rally. That's why my fund underperformed during this rally because we were overexposed . But if the next phase is one where small stocks outperform large stocks, which I expect, you know, we should succeed.
So if I'm right, people should join my strategy now, in advance. Yes. I mean, look, if the market crashes and people rush to get money, sure, people can sell their mining stocks , but a lot of the people who own stocks that could crash probably don't even own those stocks. So this won't be one of those assets that they can sell to get liquidity.
Again , platinum has many more industrial components and historically has not been viewed in the same way as gold or silver. And so the typical buyer of gold or silver doesn't necessarily buy platinum. You know, we sell very little platinum at Shift Gold. Most people don't come to Shift Gold because they want to buy platinum.
They want gold. They want silver. But I am optimistic about platinum. I am optimistic about platinum. I think all these goods will increase in price. So I believe that no matter what you have, you will make money. The question is, will platinum rise more than gold? Historically, platinum has been quite cheap compared to gold.
So you might get a better deal by buying platinum, given the historical correlation between the two metals. I think energy prices will increase significantly. I believe they are now being artificially restrained by all these strategic oil reserves that have come onto the market from the US and Europe.
So I think that at some point these supplies will be depleted and perhaps replenished later. I don't know. But once they stop supplying resources to the market, I expect prices to rise significantly. Um, you know, I think the situation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, I do n't think it's going to be resolved anytime soon.
I think this will be a long-term problem. And at a minimum, you know, ships can pay substantial tolls for passage. And this will lead to higher oil and gas prices. But when the dollar really falls against other currencies, which I expect, although it has n't happened recently. But if this happens, that in itself will significantly increase upward pressure on prices.
So I would n't be surprised if I see the price of oil closer to $150 a barrel than $100. I mean, it hasn't gone up much in the last few weeks. I think it may have gone up from 70,000 to 80,000, or it's somewhere around 82,000 now. But Bitcoin has fallen a lot. Of course, it dropped from 126,000 to just under 60,000.
That is, it fell by more than 50%. And now it has recovered some of its losses, which is quite expected, but it seems to have run out of steam, somewhere in the 85,000 range. It has not fully returned to its previous highs. It didn't even rise back to 100,000. So let's see what happens next with Bitcoin .
If I were to bet, I'd say we'll be updating at least a year sooner. That is, we will fall below 60,000 again before we rise above 100,000 . So I think there are a lot of risks. And I think a big catalyst for the next Bitcoin sell-off will be the transition of control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate to the hands of the Democrats.
Because I believe that if both chambers go to the Democrats, it will create an extremely hostile environment for cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular. Yes, the president and his cabinet will still support him, but Congress could still do considerable damage. And I think the president's political capital will melt away.
He'll become a " lame duck," right? He won't be able to run again. He would have suffered a crushing defeat. So I'm not sure he can save cryptocurrency. He can't, you understand. Just the specter of such an outcome, or the outcome itself, could be the catalyst for a major breakout for Bitcoin. As with all commodities in general, I think we are in for a commodity boom, especially given the development of AI; that is, if we become significantly more productive because AI does more work than humans, if we have all these machines that are so much more productive that they can produce significantly more of everything.
Well, then we would need a lot more raw materials to produce all of this. So, it should actually become more valuable. As is capital. You know, capital should become more valuable where labor no longer has any value. The whole idea is that AI replaces labor. So work loses its value. Although certain types of labor can acquire value, right?
Depending on how this is integrated into an economy powered by machines and computers, certain types of labor will simply lose all value. So where will this value go? Partly to other labor that preserves value, but also to capital and, of course, to resources . So I own many of these resources, as well as many productive businesses that I believe will benefit from the use of AI, become more efficient, more profitable, and pay higher dividends.
Of course, a lot depends on how everything turns out. Maybe big labs like Chat GPT or Anthropic, maybe they'll do everything. Maybe they will push everyone out of the market. I don't know. Yes . But I believe that it is the thought that all this is possible that stimulates a significant part of the "animal instincts" in the market.
The Bulls are convinced that no one is optimistic enough, so there is no particular fear here. Greed reigns supreme here . But I think the markets are definitely ready for disappointment and some kind of crash. The housing market is in big trouble. The financial sector, banks, are in big trouble . The housing market in America is dead.
Mortgage rates are 7.5%. A few years ago they were at 3%. But prices today are higher than they were a few years ago. So how can anyone afford to buy these houses? They are not designed for mortgages at 7-12%. They are designed for a mortgage at 3%. In fact, I think by the beginning of next year the fixed mortgage rate will be 9%.
So, you triple your mortgage rates. I mean, house prices would have to drop by 50% for monthly payments to remain the same. But it's not just about mortgage rates, insurance has gone up significantly, utilities have gone up significantly. You know, maintenance costs , property taxes. So, people cannot afford to buy a home.
So the entire housing industry is dead. You can't build houses. You can't build houses that no one can afford to buy. And construction costs have increased. Tariffs have made construction more expensive . Additionally, inflation has affected construction and labor costs . You know, we closed the border.
Perfectly. Criminals don't come in, but many of the people who crossed the border worked in construction. So, yes, construction costs are higher. So I think the housing industry will be in a state of depression. I think few houses will be sold. So, real estate agent jobs are disappearing, and no one will refinance their mortgage.
How can I refinance my mortgage? So those jobs disappeared. But also what no one seems to be talking about except me is the lack of a lifeline that incentivized the consumer, namely serial refinancing with cash. For 40 years, we have had mortgage rates falling and real estate prices rising in this country.
And it provided every homeowner with a lifeline if problems arose, because if they ran up too much credit card debt or ran out of money, they had an ATM in their home. All you had to do was refinance, take out some cash, maybe 25k, maybe 50k, but your new mortgage payment was actually less than your old one because you refinanced at a lower rate.
So, not only did you put money in your pocket, but you also received more money each month thanks to a lower mortgage. This fueled consumption, and of course it made the consumer feel richer because his house was constantly becoming more expensive. But now the opposite will happen. We will have real estate prices that may not fall, but they will not rise as fast as inflation.
So, you're not actually making money on your house, but you have no way to refinance it because rates will continue to rise. If you have a mortgage at 3-4%, you won't be able to refinance at 7.5 %. Your payments will increase rapidly. Um, so all this housing-related consumption is disappearing. So, this will lead to a significant slowdown in GDP, as a significant portion of this consumption was accounted for there.
Um, so that's a big problem, right? And then if real estate prices really fall, which is what needs to happen for people to buy, you have another problem because you've wiped out the equity of the baby boomer generation. And that's a big problem for a lot of people because it was their biggest asset.
Maybe they were planning to sell their house, you know, to fund their retirement. This is no longer there. Uh, and of course, even if you have a low mortgage rate, if the costs of maintaining your home go up—you know, utility bills, taxes, insurance —and if paying the mortgage and all of those costs becomes too difficult, especially given that grocery prices are higher and medical bills are higher, you're not going to struggle to pay the mortgage on a house where you have negative equity.
So you just give the keys to the bank, and then you have another crisis, because now the bank will have the house. Maybe he gave you a loan for $500,000, and the house is only worth $300,000. So you have the possibility of another, you know, mortgage crisis, uh, another bankruptcy for Fannie and Freddie.
You know, earlier this year they were all talking about the Fannie and Freddie IPOs. Now I'm telling you that we will have a bailout for Fannie and Freddie. Um, but yeah, and the banks, you know, the banks are going to be stuck with a bunch of bad debt on real estate. In addition, they will have a lot of bad debts for commercial real estate.
Even Treasury debt, banks own a lot of Treasury bonds. They are losing money on these Treasury bonds. They bought Treasury bonds when they were yielding two or 3%. So they are only worth a fraction of what they paid. They obviously have big losses on their bond portfolios. You know, pension funds typically have a high proportion of bonds, and over the last 10 years you've had , you know, the worst bond returns in the last 100 years.
So, they suffered losses there. Their liabilities are likely to increase. They have probably made good money in the stock market now, and that will offset the losses to some extent. But if there's a significant drop in the stock market, then, you know, yeah, pensions are going to be in big trouble. And, of course, that means the U.S.
government is going to be in big trouble , because we guarantee that the government insures pensions just like it insures banks. So if we have a pension crisis, what will they do again? They'll print a lot of money—even more inflation. So yeah, I mean there are so many problems that will come to light under high interest rates.
As Warren Buffett says: when the tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked. And you know, there are many such "naked swimmers" who hid under the cover of low interest rates. with us and stay connected.
Comments 0