저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 2017년 기준 인도 시장 분위기는 지난 3년간 개선되어 현재 정점이며, GST 도입이 장기적으로 세수와 사업 환경을 개선할 것이라는 낙관론. 버크셔 해서웨이 연례총회(AGM) 참석 경험: 행사가 매우 긍정적이었고, 워런 버핏이 좋은 분위기 속에서 투자 질문에 답했다고 평가. 버핏의 핵심 메시지: 찰리 멍거가 말한 '세계 최상위 5개 기업이 2.5~5조 달러 규모이면서도 추가 자본이 거의 필요 없다'는 점을 강조하며, 인터넷 기반 사업은 자본 없이도 자본을 창출하는 새로운 형태의 자본주의라고 해석. 인도 관련 전망: 인도에서도 아마존·구글·마이크로소프트·페이스북 같은 기업이 나올 수 있는 기회를 주시해야 한다고 언급하나 구체적 후보는 제시하지 않음. 투자 환경: 인도 시장은 사상 최고치이며, 자사 브로커리지와 뮤추얼펀드 자금 유입이 늘고 있다고 설명. 2016년 비모노타이제이션 이후 일시적 조정이 있었으나 추세는 전환되었다고 판단. 자금 흐름: 2014년 1월부터 2017년까지 매달 뮤추얼펀드로 자금이 유입되었으며, 현재는 자금 규모가 훨씬 커졌다고 함. GST 전망: GST는 누구에게도 본질적 이득이나 손해를 주지 않지만, 성공적으로 시행되면 국가 통합과 사업 용이성을 높일 것이며, 초기 혼란 후 6개월~1년 내 안정화될 것으로 봄. 세수 및 인프라: 세수/GDP 비율(약 10.5~11%)이 향후 12~18개월 내 최소 1%p 상승할 것으로 예상, 이를 통해 정부의 인프라 투자 재원이 늘어날 것이라 전망. 저축 활용: 인도 국내 저축(약 6천억 달러)은 충분하지만 이를 국가 건설에 효율적으로 연결하는 것이 과제라고 지적. 대상 자산 언급: 대상 목록 종목·지수에 대한 직접적 방향 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
the winners of the Buffett Trail win the lunch contest with ramdev they were at the mutila usal headquarters they enjoyed their you know nice intellectual afternoon with ramd and understanding the key Investments of uh you know investment at the key mantras of investment and on the sidelines of that lunch a you caught up with ram Bal these events are happening for years I mean I'm going for last 20 years but uh the the I me IO tanir and your team went there and they had and she was lucky to get the interview the direct interview with the great old man Mr Buffett so I think all those things created excitement but I think this time uh the even AGM itself was full of uh lot of positive questions he was in great mood right from beginning from word go he was in terrific mod he was and U there were a lot of questions on investing and all so uh uh so I think it was full 10 out of 10 kind of AGM uh this time and for us we went with 60 65 people and uh your team that was very exciting you know going through the boram with that cameraman and all it was not that I mean nobody was doing in fact I saw some other camera Crews but they were not doing the way we did the thing so I think we extended a lot of value out of this entire event and I'm very happy that it worked for everybody great sir what was your key takeaway from this particular event worksh hathway AGM you know one of the thing uh which has kind of stuck to my mind even now is that uh when he said Charlie M said the world has changed the top five companies uh uh top five companies in the world are uh $2 and5 trillion and they don't need any Capital so you know now you don't need money to make money internet based businesses unique businesses these businesses like whether it is Amazon whether it is Google whether it is Microsoft uh Facebook uh uh all these companies they don't need any Capital so he's saying that this is a new form of capitalism where uh where you don't need Capital to create fresh Capital so and you're talking about the scale which is humongous like you're talking about in trillions um apple and all these companies are now half a trillion and 700 billion and all so 800 billion and all so clearly uh there is and India is going to participate in this particular Journey now uh if you ask me today what is the next Facebook from India or I don't have any answer but we must keep looking out for those opportunities which will happen from India I don't have any doubts MH so the entire philosophy of investing in India is also expanding at a great Pace the markets are at record high now that you come back uh you see this wave really gather Pace here in India uh with Market actually going high you think more people are getting attracted towards the entire investment as a as a practice Yeah so clearly we are seeing at brokerage we run one of the largest brokerage is pan India brokerage so we can clearly see the excitement and the in my mutual funds the inflows you know I can clearly see that uh people are far more excited particularly after demonetization little bit of break but I think it has happened I think the trend has tide has turned uh of investing 3 years back uh immediately after just on the eve of election uh uh I think immediately after his nomination Mr modi's nomination in Goa and all I think the there was a positive feel uh since then and I have not seen from January of 14 14 15 16 and now 17 not a month of break when money has not flowed into the funds now of course it has become a gusher it has become much bigger amount of money we are also bigger and the money coming is also bigger but uh generally the mood has been improving for last 3 years and uh it is at Peak right now and uh now we are on the eve of GST uh implementation and good thing is that gstes doesn't make anybody significantly better or worse I mean they're just trying to collect what is the taxation right now but what it does is it is a if it is implemented well successfully which I don't have doubts it will happen it is like a broken egg you cannot roll it back you have to make it you know now you have to consume it so I think it will be consument there will be some tithing troubles but in a 6 months one year's time once the smooth operation of G3 starts M I think it will be a huge you know unification of the country and uh ease of doing business uh for the whole nation I and you know whenever these big things happen uh say like cell phone came or Internet came initially it was thought that it'll be used for internet uh sorry for the male purposes and all but today what all things are being done so once the uh this change happen successfully uh the ease of doing business and the collection my sense is the tax collection uh will rise tax collection to GDP today is about 10 half 11% uh it must see at least a percentage higher in a 12 to months time and that will give the necessary resources to the government to forther infrastructure build up because we need trillions of dollars and uh despite our savings of about 600 billion and all we are not able to channelize the savings into uh you know uh building of the nation people are buying gold people are buying all sorts of things but uh I mean $600 billion is good enough to build the country the issue is how do you do it
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