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결론: 버핏·멍거는 맥도날드를 교육기관 같은 좋은 사업으로 보며 장기 보유 철학을 강조하고, 영상 내 예측성 가격 전망은 없음. [맥도날드 사업 평가] 맥도날드는 젊은 근로자에게 첫 직장을 제공해 교육 역할을 한다는 평가가 나옴. 음식업은 코카콜라·질레트처럼 절대적 지배력을 갖기 어렵다고 봄. [사업 모델 비교] 맥도날드는 약 1/3 매장을 직접 소유하고 나머지도 임대해 부동산 수익이 큼. 데어리퀸은 가맹 중심이라 자본 투입이 적고 로열티는 약 4% 수준. [구조 개편 관련] 부동산과 가맹 사업 분리는 규모상 매우 어렵고 실익도 크지 않다는 입장. [1998년 매도 회고] 버핏은 맥도날드 매도가 큰 실수였다고 언급. [투자 철학] 뉴스에 따라 사고파는 것은 어리석고, 좋은 사업을 골라 오래 보유하는 것이 핵심이라는 주장. [출연자 전망] 특정 종목·지수의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
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it's fun by the elite academic types in america to say mcdonald's is the wrong kind of food and it's the wrong kind of this and the jobs don't pay very much and so forth i have a quite a different view i think mcdonald's is one of the most successful educational institutions in the united states they take people and give them a first job which enables them to get a second job they do a very very good job of educating troubled young people to be good good citizens and they're probably more successful in charter schools so i'm a big fan of mcdonald's those people are running very good habits they've got to be there at a certain time they have to have to learn how to count money and price items and and they have to learn how to smile at people and and and have happy customers charlie went to the public school system in omaha as did i would say that in the food business you would never get the total certainty of dominance that you would get uh in in in products like coca-cola and uh uh gillette people people move around in the food business from where they eat from they may they may favor mcdonald's but they will go to different places at different times and somebody starts shaving with a gillette sensor plus it's very unlikely to go elsewhere in my view and so they they do not you you just you never would get in the food business in my judgment uh uh quite the inevitability that you would get in in the soft drink business with a coca-cola you'll never get it again in the soft drink business i mean it took 100 i guess the 1886 so it'd be about 111 years to get to the point where they are and the infrastructure's incredible and so uh i wouldn't put it quite in the in the same class in terms of inevitability that doesn't mean it can be a better stock investment depending on the price but you're not going to get the price for me and knowing charlie i doubt if you'll get the price from him but we'll give him a chance he's breathing fox he's breathing we've got this down to a routine oh i have nothing to add one okay station we do have some breaking news for you right now mcdonald's detailing a turnaround plan steve easter brook says the company's performance has been in his words poor so he is reorganizing the company structure and he's doing it into four segments the u.s international lead markets high growth markets and foundational markets easter brook says the new structure will eliminate layers of bureaucracy and uh in other headlines mcdonald's is going to be moving uh to become 90 franchise globally by 2018 right now i think it's about 81 we're gonna have a lot more on that story when we return and we're also gonna be heading back to omaha to continue our conversation with warren buffett charlie munger and bill gates we were listening in to andrew's comments when we were just hearing about mcdonald's and mcdonald's looks like it's changing its corporate structure pretty dramatically warn your comments when you heard or what yeah well we earlier talked about 3g and what they did when they came in and making obvious changes and they did that at burger king when they came in and they they went from uh they reduced the number of company-owned stores dramatically and and had them franchised and now mcdonald's is doing the same thing so uh it made sense of burger king i'm sure it makes sense at mcdonald's the difference is that when they come into burger king they do it very fast incidentally at dairy queen we have 6 000 stores and we had about 50 some company stores originally we have three now they they make less sense but you need somebody that changes the system once they sort of get built into doing the same thing over and over again can you do you know whether he's a taco bell or a chipotle guy have you ever asked him i'd have a guess i don't know have you been to taco bell or chipotle or either one neither neither one no i i i go to i go to kentucky fried i go to mcdonald's i go to burger king i get okay and we go to weddings skirting the questions there's various local ones skirting the question taco bell taco no i will the taco bell guy be good at chipotle or will he ruin the natural foo-foo you know all the you know i mean taco bell knowing his inclinations for where he's he just when when he starts talking hamburgers i'll give you an opinion yeah i don't think he's a taco guy all right all right i was just these are the pressing yeah these are what's on my mind as i said i wanted to prepare you for some of these these social societies serves coca-cola are there major differences in the investment characteristics between mcdonald's and dairy greens and if yes would you explain them yeah there are major differences mcdonald's owns perhaps in the area of a third of of all locations worldwide i can't tell you exact percentage but if they've got 23 000 outlets they own many many thousands of them and operate them and then of the remainder they own a very high percentage and and lease them to their operators their franchisees so they have a very large investment on which they get very good returns uh in physical facilities all over the world uh dairy queen uh has counting orange julius 6 000 plus uh operations of which 30 odd are operated by the company and even those some are in in joint ventures or partnerships so the investment in fixed assets is dramatically different between the two the fixed assets investment by the franchisee or the person as landlord obviously is significant in the dairy queen but it's not significant to the company as the franchisor so that the the capital employed in dairy queen is relatively small uh compared to the capital employed in mcdonald's but mcdonald's also makes a lot of money out of out of uh out of owning those locations and receives whereas dairy queen will in most cases receive four percent of of the franchisees uh sales in in terms of a royalty uh at at a mcdonald's the that there's that there's that more than that percentage plus bus rentals and so on so they're two different very different economic models they both depend on the success of the franchisee in the end i mean you have to have a good business uh for the franchisee uh to over time have a good business for the parent company both both companies have that uh situation to deal with charlie uh i've got nothing to add the four percent is not very much when you stop to think about providing a group of franchisees with the nationally recognized brand and quality control and all sorts of desirable business aids so four percent is at the law if you look at the whole industry four percent is on the uh in the lower part of the range but part of the worst part of part of what attracted us was the fact that the the charges to the franchisees are low at dairy queen a successful franchisee can sell his operation for significantly more than he has invested in tangible assets and and we want it that way obviously because that means he's got a successful business and it means that that over time we will have a successful business you want you want a franchise operate you want the franchise operator to make money and you want him to create a capital asset that's worth more than he's put in it that's the goal uh in your description of mcdonald's um you have the sense that there's a great business buried in mcdonald's and then two good businesses that are mixed in with it and the problem is with the the real estate and the operational business that as the company is currently capitalized they can earn the same kind of returns they can earn the franchising business you were or still are as significant shareholders of mcdonald's i guess my question is the solution is obvious why don't you push for a solution that creates the same opportunity you have an international dairy queen well my guess is i don't know the details on it but my guess is that with 23 000 locations all over the world i think it would be extraordinarily difficult to separate the real estate business out from the franchising business at this point i think they could have gone a different route i'm not saying it would have been a better route at all in fact i think the odds are they followed the right route and in owning and controlling so much real estate but i think i just think the problems would be horrendous certainly you wouldn't you wouldn't want to sell it and lease it back because you would not end up with more value in my view by doing that and spinning it off in a real estate trust or something with operating in 100 plus countries and all the franchise arrangements i think it would be a huge huge problem i would not want to tackle it myself so i i think that you should look at mcdonald's and i don't know anything about their plans on this but i think you should look at mcdonald's as being a a very good business but the one that will continue in its present mode uh visa via the real estate although i think they've signaled that they're going to do less on new properties uh somewhat less in connection with ownership than they've done to this point but there's 23 000 locations out there and every operator own arrangement is very important to him and it just it would be it would be a mammoth job and i'm not sure how much extra value would be created in the end anyway charlie yeah the net returns on capital mcdonald has earned all these years are high even though they have owned a lot of the real estate i think it's hard to quarrel with the way they did it they had a they had the best record and the multiple is not greatly different in my view than if the real estate were separate you know i mean now if you if you get all the real estate detached in some arrangement you might get a little more out of it but it doesn't strike me as a big deal what can be done to educate the children about the sage of omaha's philosophy of successful money management and to prevent another reoccurrence of the financial mayhem that we've all seen and experienced in the 2007 and 2008 years we will see financial mayhem as you put it from time to time i hope we reduce it i hope we reduce the magnitude etc but people do crazy things and it's not a function of iq and some sometimes it's not a function of education in fact i would argue that some of the problems and not a small part of what's occurred in the last 30 years has been because of what uh became the prevailing conventional wisdom in in the leading business schools i think it's much more important to have good learning at the elementary level that frankly the habit at the uh in terms of advanced degrees in uh graduate schools charlie yeah there are other great educational institutions in america that help handle this problem one of the ones i admire most is is mcdonald's i had fun once at a major university when i said i thought mcdonald's succeeded better as an educator than the people in the university did and what i meant was mcdonald's hires a lot of people who are quite marginal at the very start of their working career and they learn to show up on time for work and observe the discipline a lot of them go on in employment to much higher jobs and they've had an enormous constructive effect about educating into responsibility a lot of people who were threatened with not making it so i think we all owe a lot to the uh employment culture of mcdonald's and it's not it's not enough appreciated you know if you and i own a mcdonald's franchise together and it's worth a million dollars and you own 50 of it you come to me and you say i'll sell out for 400 000.
you know i'll buy you out you say 600. yeah well you should be you should be yeah but if you want 600 000 i'll just come back tomorrow i'm on the way to the office it's a out of a five minute drive been doing it uh for 54 years one of the good things about this five minute drive is that on the way there's a mcdonald's so i'll pick up something i'll be a sausage muffin with egg and cheese anything else that's it thank you and i tell my wife as i shave in the morning i say either 261 295 or 317 and she puts that amount and a little cup by me here and that determines which of three breakfasts i get okay 2.95 everybody hey great you're on candid camera i see hello everybody when i'm not feeling quite so prosperous i might go with the 261 which is two sausage patties and then i put them together and 317 is a bacon egg and cheese biscuit but the market's down this morning so i think i'll pass up the 317 and go for the 295.
during his 1998 annual letter to shareholders warren buffett appeared to lament his sale of mcdonald's shares stating during the year we slightly increased our holdings in american express one of our three largest commitments and left the other two unchanged however we trimmed or substantially cut many of our smaller positions here i need to make a confession the portfolio actions i took in 1988 actually decreased our gain for the year in particular my decision to sell mcdonald's was a very big mistake you would have been better off last year if i had regularly snuck off to the movies during market hours the question we get most frequently from people about you coming on is what should they be buying right now so if i say buy you say basically whole i mean the idea that the european news or slowdown in this or that or anything like that that would not cause you if you owned a good farm and had it run by a good tenant you wouldn't even sell it because somebody said here's a news item you know this is happening in greece or something of the sort if you owned an apartment house and you got to raise your rents a little as well located you had a good manager you wouldn't dream of selling it uh if you had a good business personally um the local mcdonald's franchise you know you would you wouldn't be thinking about buying or selling it every day now when you own stocks you own pieces of businesses and they're wonderful business you can pick the best businesses in the world and to buy or sell on current news is is is just crazy you're in a wonderful business you got people running it for you you know you're going to do well over five or ten years and to think news events should cause you to try and dance in and out of something that's a wonderful game is a terrible mistake so get into a bunch of wonderful businesses and stay with them
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