저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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버핏과 멍거가 좋은 투자서로 필립 피셔의 『Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits』(1958)를 꼽고, 그 핵심인 '스커틀버트(scuttlebutt)' 기법을 설명하는 영상. 스커틀버트 기법: 기업 경영진·경쟁사 임원에게 직접 질문해 산업 경제성을 파악하는 방법. 버핏은 석탄 산업을 예로 들어 경쟁사 CEO들에게 '10년간 무인도에 갇힌다면 어느 경쟁사에 투자하겠냐'는 식으로 묻는 방식을 소개. 이 기법은 유용하지만 만능은 아니며, 아메리칸익스프레스 살라드유 스캔들처럼 질문만으로 사기를 못 잡는 경우도 있다고 언급. 현재는 '채널 체크'라고도 부른다고 함. 소비재 평가 관점: 코카콜라는 고객을 기쁘게 하는 제품으로 가격 민감도가 낮고 인플레이션 조정 시 가성비가 높다고 평가. 코스트코는 고객을 기쁘게 해 충성도가 높다고 언급. 씨즈캔디 사례로 소비자가 가격에 둔감한 제품의 가치를 설명. 애플: 아이폰 중심 생태계에 투자하고 있으며 매우 뛰어난 특성이 있다고 봄(단, 틀릴 수 있다고 언급). 아메리칸익스프레스는 1960년 살라드유 스캔들 이후에도 고객이 이탈하지 않았고 프리미엄 가격을 유지한 사례로 언급. 과거 투자 판단(코카콜라·아메리칸익스프레스)은 대체로 옳았으나 실수도 있다고 인정. 종목별 앞으로의 가격 방향 전망은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
one of the best books on investment was written in 1958 I think I read it around 1960 by phil fisher called common stocks and uncommon profits and all the countries or companies went to eventually but it talked about the importance I mean are the usefulness of what he called the scuttlebutt method and and you know that was something I didn't learn from Graham but every now and then it's turned out to be very useful now it doesn't solve everything and I mean there's a whole lot of voices all you do it with American Express in the salad oil scam they're doing it of Apple you know decades it in certain cases you actually couldn't learn a lot just by asking a lot of questions and and I give Phil Fisher credit that book goes back a lot of years but but as Charlie says the some of the companies he picked as winners forever did sort of Peter out on him but but yeah the basic idea that you can learn Oh a lot of things just just just by asking in some cases I mean I used to I mean if I got interested in the coal industry just say depict pick one out of the air you know when I was much younger more energetic if I went and talked to the heads of ten coal companies and I asked each one of them way later into the conversation after they got feeling very felt like talking and I would just you know I just say if you had to go away for ten years on a desert island and and you had to put all of your family's money into one of your competitors which one would it be at why and then you know then I'd ask them if they had to sell short one of their competitors for ten years all their family money why and they everybody loves talking about their competitors and if you do that with ten different companies you'll probably have a better fix on the economics of the coal industry than any one of those individuals has I mean there's ways of getting at things and sometimes they're useful sometimes they're not but sometimes they can be can be very useful and and you know the idea of just learning more all the time if we've been offered a chance to go into coca-cola right after it was invented we probably would have said returned that yeah you wouldn't look kind of silly to us well unless we drank it now Charlie listen yeah no he's right I mean we don't we don't foresee things that we haven't got a lot of evidence in on I mean me and you know we long wound we want to see a lot of if we're talking about a consumer product we want to see how a consumer product behaves under a lot of different circumstances and then we want to use something actually there was a book by fel Fisher written around 1960 called common stocks and uncommon profits is one of the great books on investing and it talks about the scuttlebutt method of investing which was quite a ways from what Ben Graham taught me in terms of figures but it's a very very good book and you can learn a lot you know just by by going out and using some shoe leather now they they call them channel checks now or something like that but it's you can get a feel for some products and then there's others you can and then sometimes you're wrong but but it it is a good technique it's an important investing technique I would say that and and Ted and Todd do a lot of that and they have people some people to help him out on doing it to Charley's done it with Costco I mean he's he's yes I mean all the time he is finding new virtues in Costco you know uh and and he's right incidentally I mean Costco has an enormous appeal to its constituency you know they they delight they surprise and delight their customers and there is nothing like that in business you have delighted customers you're a long way home but with American Express this was an interesting situation because diners club got their first I think American Express in a certain sense I mean they did it for a lot of reasons but they went into the credit card business because they were worried about what was going to happen to traveler's checks and although confidence Xers still exist in a significant way but the interesting thing when the American Express went into competition with diners club and with carte blanche as I remember that was also existed at the time was that instead of charging less than diners club and going in figuring they were going against established guy and they'd come in at a lower price they went in at a higher price as I remember and the American Express Centurion was on that card I've got one that I got 1964 but they weren't up for that it it it had more value and time I mean it it got better representation and frankly if you were a salesperson out with somebody and you could pull out that American Express card with that Centurion you look like it were JP Morgan if you pull off the diner's coming out a whole bunch of flashy signals you look like a guy that was cutting his checks from one month to the next and fellow fellow named Ralph Schneider and Ralph Schneider and Al Bloomingdale developed the diners club and they were very smart about getting there first but they weren't smart about the merchandise at subsequently RC Cola and it did there all kinds of calls that came after coke I mean you know you you go back to 1886 and come up with something at Jacobs pharmacy that's incredibly successful you know fairly soon you're gonna get lots of imitators but coke really is the real thing and you know you uh you offer me RC Cola and say I'll give it to you at half the price of coca-cola and terms of drinking and I mean this this is a product that six or six and a half ounces he's old for a nickel in 1900 you know and now if you buy it on the weekend and I have large quantity everything you're not paying that much more this newspaper was 3 cents in 1942 you know that the amount of enjoyment per real in terms of the real of what you pay for this has gone dramatically down in inflation-adjusted money so it's it is a bargain product you you have to look at See's candy you know if you live in California and you were you were a teenage boy and you went to your girlfriend's house and you get the box of candy to her or mother or father and she kissed you you know you lose price sensitivity at that point that's so we really want products where people feel like kissing you you know rather than slapping is it it's and it's it's an interesting thing I mean you know effect were we're betting on the ecosystem of a Apple product but led by the iPhone and and I see characteristics in that that make me think that that it's extraordinary but I may be wrong and you know so far we've been I would say we've been right on American Express and and coca-cola American Express had this huge salad oil scandal in 1960 happened in North 63 November right around the time Kennedy was shot and there was really worried about what the company would survive but nobody quit using the the car nobody quit using the Travelers Cheques and they charged a premium price for their travellers sake so there are things you can see around consumer products that sometimes can give you a pretty good insight into the future and then sometimes we make mistakes Charlie I got another dad except that
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