저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기침체 공포(Wall Street 비관)가 과하다고 주장. 소비자 신용은 고신용자 중심으로 차입이 늘고 있고, 저소득층 예금 감소는 2023년 여름쯤 중간소득층까지 확산될 수 있다고 봄. 고소득층 소비(명품, 항공권) 견조, 실적 시즌에 상향 서프라이즈 가능성 제기. 주택 관련 및 저소득 타깃 기업은 취약, 테슬라·아메리칸익스프레스 등 고소득층 대상 기업 선호. 반도체는 중국 매출 비중(엔비디아·AMD 25%) 때문에 부정적 언급.
다듬은 글
you're going to want to watch this one to the end the disaster begins now terrible earnings recession oh fud level 99 fun folks we have to be real about what we could be facing here almost everyone on Wall Street is expecting a nightmare an absolute nightmare of margin compression almost across the board we expect that 80 percent of all companies will have margin compression and that only the top 20 percent of companies won't have margin compression and unfortunately Wall Street is really gloomy because remember what we talked about at the beginning of 2020 we said look and I believe I could have been one of the first in this Finance Community uh I'm not trying to Pat myself on the back I'm just trying to say one of the things I warned about in January was if we have two quarters in a row of negative GDP we'll have a technical recession now that doesn't necessarily mean that we're actually in a recession it just means technically on paper we're in a recession and what the concern then becomes is if people believe we're in a recession do they pull back and go whoa we gotta pull back spending oh no and at the same time as people pull back spending do poor people then start piling on and taking on all of the loans and we have some data now that suggests maybe we are being too gloomy maybe Wall Street is too concerned and one of the most important things for you to know as an investor is what is your Achilles heel see if you're all cash and you're shorting the market right now or you're out of the market you got to ask yourself what's the bull thesis that you're missing if you are in the market you've got to ask yourself what's what's the danger that you're missing right and so we cover a lot of both sides but one of the things that we really have to look at is what's going on with consumers and I'll tell you there's some stuff about consumers that's actually well I'll let it speak for itself look at this we've heard that borrowing has skyrocketed over the last quarter we actually seem that you see that here total Consumer Credit a skyrocketed one of the highest levels we've seen before I've talked about this in other videos I've tweeted about it but look at this when we actually get this Bank of America breakdown of all consumer credit card new accounts what we actually see is average FICO scores or 7 70.
so this actually means people with more of an ability to repay their debts are borrowing well what does it look like if we go to Consumer autos oh man average booked FICO score around 7.90 even though the volume for Autos is down the people still borrowing right now seem to be those who have more of the ability to repay and this is really interesting because this morning in our course member live stream we went through the JPMorgan earnings call we did a little bit of research on Bank of America and some other looks into the consumers as I generally like to do we even did some dominoes just to see what's going on with the consumer and one of the big things that we noticed with JP Morgan is they were warning us that hey we're seeing the lower income segments start seeing their deposits go down and their excess savings might be totally gone by the summer of next year in fact as we kind of approach the summer of 2023 we might see not only the lower incomes but the middle incomes and the rest of sort of the income tiers we'll start seeing all of their extra savings go away by the middle of 2023 so JP Morgan's kind of given us this heads up that like people could still have spending power between now and the summer of 2023 so even though we feel like Hey we're technically in a recession now we actually might not be yet because consumers are still spending like crazy and remember that our negative GDP numbers were not actually driven by a lack of spending they were driven by a negative trade report on GDP so when we actually look at the consumer the consumer isn't driving a recession yet and so that could lead us to a potential upside surprise in earnings consider this Jamie dimon and JPMorgan tell us nominal spend is still strong across both discretionary and non-discretionary categories with combined debt and credit card spend up 13 year over year now sure eight or nine percent of that is probably inflation but they say cash buffers remain elevated across all income segments with spending growing faster than income though we're starting to see a decrease in deposits on those lower income segments so then this goes back to something else so we started talking about in q1 of 2022 that maybe where we need to focus is actually those businesses that appeal to the higher income demographics who are potentially going to write out this entire recessionary drama I mean consider this look at the people borrowing right now the people functioning in our financial markets average credit score 770 for consumer credit cards 7.99 for Consumer vehicle lending we go to mortgages 768.
go to home equity lines of credit these are smart people by the way these are people who hopefully saw my videos in in January of 2021 where I said Now's the Time to break the piggy bank of your home equity line of credit get a refinance appraisal at a high as long as you can afford the payment open that credit line look at that smart people high credit scores 792 credit scores not to correlate smart people with higher credit scores just saying smart people opening those lines of credit as long as they can afford them right so that way they have the opportunity to use that potentially to go buy the dip in the stock market when pain comes later so we're actually seeing right here unfolding in front of our eyes the rich again getting richer they're taking advantage of the fact that they can borrow on their homes at appreciated values and potentially take this money and go buy the dip in the stock market if they need a new car they can get it it's not the lower income demographics that are doing it now that's actually really important because the higher credit score the lower likelihood of bankruptcy and foreclosure or repossessions sure it's easy to go oh click bait repossessions are through the roof foreclosures or through the roof sure they are when you compare to the pandemic when there were none going on but what are we seeing Airline demand through the roof it's the poor companies like Carnival cruise lines that are getting screwed it's the companies without pricing power like Nike because everybody can generally buy Nike right it's those that also appear that lower demographic that are getting screwed they're the ones in the earnings recession now of course at everybody also already got their new pc everybody also has their new tablet look I still haven't even opened this okay this is ridiculous I still haven't opened these iPads okay we just have too much stuff now and so it's no surprise that now we're seeing Goods inflation core Goods inflation has decelerated from over eight percent to six and a half percent Services inflation has gone up to about six and a half percent so we've kind of met now we're hoping that inflation can inflect down sometime in q1 of 2023 maybe but then again we've had a lot of opium that inflation would go down by the end of this year and it hasn't yet so don't get me wrong there are still downsides if inflation persists but and I know quite frankly the consumer being strong might contribute to inflation which is a problem but when we look at earnings of Quality Companies higher uh tier companies especially companies that appeal to a higher income demographic for example Tesla or end phase as long as home values are higher Generac as long as again home values are high anything home related requires home values being high as soon as home values start deteriorating you'll see that deteriorating as well but there's a reason you're seeing uh Tiffany right uh Louis Vuitton right these luxury Brands actually seeing more sales rather than less airfares people traveling to to Europe we're seeing more of that rather than less from the people who can afford it so what does that mean that means if we are bears on this market and we believe that this earning cycle is going to be absolutely terrible then maybe segment which companies you're looking at for example Domino's when we actually if consider inflation their their sales are probably down 10 to 12 percent but maybe we look at some of again those more luxury related businesses like I hate to say it because I don't really think they're luxury but I do think they're middle to upper class American Express look at the businesses that are still hiring not laying off who's hiring right now Tesla's hiring for their factories and American Express is hiring because they're opening cards like they've never opened cards before and American Express is probably your top tier in terms of FICO scores so it's kind of interesting if you want to stay away from Real Estate you look at American Express and you look at Tesla right now now we know the chip Market has gotten destroyed and trying to create some real issues especially for companies like Nvidia and AMD when 25 of their revenue goes to China only 10 percent of uh Taiwan semiconductors goes to China right so so there's a potential opportunity but there is some real potential that this earnings season won't be as bad as expected and so if there is a word of caution to folks who have potentially uh a lot of bearish bets be prepared for potential upside surprises on companies not only with pricing power but potentially more of those luxury good based companies because what I'm seeing and what I'm reading on Wall Street is a lot of Doom and Gloom but when we actually start going through the reports that are coming out again either the airlines or the banks they're not telling us to expect the worst just yet now that's not to say hey it's time to go to the Moon again oh the stock market's green take out margin Pile in stay out of margin get away from debt in this market you still want to be careful if you get green rally days and you're in margin use those as an opportunity to get out of margin but boy oh boy I'm I'm seeing some some good things out of the beginning of these earnings calls and these uh Consumer Reports here especially what we see here on borrowing from Bank of America here by the way is that chart on core goods and services you can see how core Goods inflation has come down Services inflation is still Rising but if we can get services to come down especially owner's equivalent rents that could be good take a look at this other retail report also separately out from Bank of America spending from higher income Shoppers remained strong from their October report in September for September right based on their October report which was reporting on September in Q3 the 125 000 plus income cohort spent 10 percent more on luxury than last year upper middle class is still spending now spending by those who make less than fifty thousand dollars fell thirteen percent but look somebody making what are they not buying well they're generally not Apple customers they're generally not iPad customers they're generally not Tesla customers they probably don't own their own homes so they're probably not in phaser Generac customers they're probably not uh customers of American Express now Atlanta which has like a median income of like thirty six thousand dollars it's really really low look at this a reportedly Home Depot is putting up six hundred thousand square feet of space around some of their properties in Suburban Atlanta for Subway and that's despite strong consumer demand year over year in sales at Home Depot but in Atlanta they're like uh oh red flag this is the kind of stuff that I'm paying attention to for house hack because I need to make sure that when we buy real estate for househack it's in an area that's not going to go bankrupt that's not going to die and remember if you're an accredited investor join me okay joined by the end of October and you'll make sure you get uh it's up to 60 in warrants it's like 60 call option so you put 100 Grand in that's like getting 60 Grand worth of call options totally for free now read the perspectives for the details as to how all that works but anyway this is a big deal especially as they see vacancies going up in this area and we're seeing clothing sales soften with department store spending falling below 2019 levels well again who likes to go shop at Macy's or some of the lower tier things like let's say a Nordstrom Racks right Nordstrom Rack generally you're under 100K demographic right so these are places to stay away from these are hints to pay attention to uh now look at this here they still talk about luxury though our global luxury goods team reported a slower September as well but positively highlighted that luxury revenues remain robust as in Q2 an impressive feat given the global context it's interesting uh all right really incredible so what does this mean well what this means is we are whether we are or are not in a recession we are going through what I would call The Tale of Two Cities recession where poor individuals households making under seventy thousand dollars a year unfortunately you're going to get reamed by inflation and energy costs and higher Goods costs those making over a hundred twenty five thousand dollars a year are still spending they're still borrowing they're the ones responsible for more borrowing which doesn't mean we have a debt crisis it just means that they're like yeah whatever all right we gotta get through this we're gonna keep spending money and so I want to be investing where those people are spending money pay attention to that that is potentially money all right folks thanks for watching we'll see in the next one bye
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